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Eveready and ZEE join partners for a brand collaboration

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Eveready has partnered with ZEE to promote its new range of batteries. As part of the brand collaboration, Eveready ULTIMA will feature on ZEE’s homegrown reality shows, including Sa Re Ga Ma Pa, Dance Bangla Dance, Dance Karnataka Dance and Mr & Mrs Local. Additionally, ZEE’s linear channels are an integral part of the brand association.

Talking about the partnership, Anirban Banerjee, senior vice president and SBU head (batteries and flashlights), Eveready Industries India, said, “We have recently unveiled our new and improved Ultima range of batteries supported by a 360 campaign ‘Khelenge Toh Sikhenge’. The campaign highlights that children in any family can learn valuable life lessons such as caring, sharing, love and equality when playing in daily life with battery operated toys. Thus to keep the child’s play ongoing effortlessly, our new 400% longer lasting Ultima batteries are just perfect. Our collaboration with ZEE seamlessly aligns with the campaign’s objective and values, as majority of ZEE’s shows are packed with energy, fostering a blend of entertainment while actively nurturing the young talents.”

“At Starcom, we believe that a successful product launch requires a powerful platform that maximises consumer engagement and brand visibility. Such a key communication pillar was vital to drive home Eveready’s new message. ZEE’s reality shows enjoy immense popularity among Indians, which makes it a strong channel for brand collaboration. Accordingly, we forged this first-of-its-kind strategic partnership, which not only introduces Eveready’s robust product offerings but also harnesses ZEE’s expansive reach across diverse regions, languages and content formats,” Niti Kumar, COO – Starcom India, added.

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Global bond funds see biggest outflows in two decades

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Global bond funds saw the biggest outflows in two decades in the first three quarters of this year as hefty interest rate increases by central banks to tame inflation sparked fears of a recession.

According to Refinitiv Lipper, global bond funds faced a cumulative outflow of $175.5 billion in the first nine months of this year, the first net sales in that period since 2002.

Governments and companies have borrowed heavily in the past few years, taking advantage of ultra-low interest rates, and they now stare at bigger interest liabilities due to a rise in yields.

Also Read: Global Markets: Dust settles on stocks surge, OPEC+ talks supply cuts

“The combination of high debt levels and a rise in interest rates has reduced investors’ confidence in the government’s ability to pay back debt, which has resulted in the massive outflows we are seeing,” said Jacob Sansbury, CEO at Pluto Investing.

He added that outflows from bond funds might continue into 2023, as a reduction in interest rates and reduced debt loads are unlikely.

Emerging market bonds faced an outflow of about $80 billion in the first three quarters of this year, while U.S. high yield bonds and inflation-linked bonds witnessed net sales of $65.81 billion and $16.44 billion, respectively.

The iShares UK Gilts All Stocks Index (UK) D Acc recorded outflows of $6.67 billion in the last quarter, while the ILF GBP Liquidity Plus Class 2 and Vanguard U.K. Short Term Investment Grade Bond Index GBP Acc fund saw withdrawals of $2.16 billion and $993 million respectively.

BONDS ATTRACTIVE NOWHowever, some funds managers said bonds looked attractive after the slump this year.

The ICE BoFA U.S. Treasury Index has fallen 13.5% so far this year, while the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index has shed about 20%.

“The yield cushion now protects the investor against negative total returns significantly more than it did at the beginning of the year,” said Jake Remley, portfolio manager at Income Research + Management.

“This almost certainly makes the prospects for bonds better between now and year-end, even if interest rates continue to rise as briskly as they have over the past 9 months.”

The yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds stood around 4.12% and 3.68% respectively on Wednesday, compared with 0.7% and 1.5% at the start of the year.

Similarly, the yield on the ICE BofA U.S. High Yield index , the commonly used benchmark for the junk bond market, stood at 9%, compared with 4.3% at the start of the year.

“Some bonds have become the proverbial ‘babies thrown out with the bathwater’ and offer compelling value at these levels,” said Ryan O’Malley, portfolio manager at Sage Advisory Services.

“However, it’s important to note that there will likely be further credit stress in many corners of the bond market and risk management is paramount in these uncertain times.”

Meta, Google investors look past earnings beats to risks ahead

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The digital ad market is finally recovering from a painful slump. You wouldn’t know it looking at the shares of Meta Platforms, Snap and Alphabet. All three reported generally upbeat results this week, with ad spending growing compared with a year ago. That should’ve been a welcome sign for investors who’ve seen the industry struggle through more than two years in turmoil. The companies have had to cope with a post-pandemic pullback in online marketing spending, an ever-changing list of economic uncertainties and a change to Apple’s privacy policies that made smartphone ads less effective.

But warnings from the companies’ executives about broader economic conditions and the pursuit of new avenues of growth have sent stocks sliding in the wake of results. Take Meta, the owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp. Shares initially climbed more than 5% following its quarterly report and guidance on Wednesday. Then chief financial officer Susan Li said in a call with analysts that the future looks unpredictable. “We are very subject to volatility in the macro landscape,” Li said. “The revenue outlook is uncertain” for 2024.

Financially, all three are looking stronger. Meta beat revenue estimates and indicated that growth will continue for the rest of the year. Snap returned to sales increases after two periods of declines. Alphabet topped projections with both its search ad sales and overall revenue, though its cloud business struggled.

It hasn’t been an easy transition. The companies have deeply cut costs, retooled their ad businesses and limited new spending to what they see as more solid bets, such as artificial intelligence and augmented reality.

Snap, the maker of the Snapchat app, has spent much of the year revamping its ad business, which finally returned to growth last quarter. But when it reported results Tuesday, the company said it had limited visibility into revenue for the rest of the year.

The Israel-Hamas war was cited as one source of uncertainty. A “large number” of advertising campaigns were paused in the third quarter after the start of the conflict, Snap said, and this delay could continue into the fourth quarter. As a result, the company said it would be “imprudent” to provide a formal outlook for the current quarter.

Snap fell 5.4% on Wednesday. “Given the near-term issues, which could take a while to play out, we remain on the sidelines,” said Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Shyam Patil, who has a neutral rating on the stock.

Angelo Zino, an analyst at CFRA Research, shares those anxieties. “I would say we are now in an environment where investors are becoming more concerned about macro/geopolitical/regulatory uncertainties,” he said.

For Alphabet, where the ad business is tied to an already mature and dominant search business, investors are looking for other sources of growth. On Tuesday, the cloud computing unit’s disappointments overshadowed a stronger ad business. Though overall sales came in about $1 billion higher than analysts’ estimates, the shares tumbled 9.5% on Wednesday, marking the biggest single-day decline since 2020.

Guidance from digital ad sellers is closely scrutinized because their revenue is dependent on businesses feeling confident enough to spend on marketing. Inflation, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and rising interest rates have all been headwinds.

“They are heavily tied to the health of the economy,” Zino said.

Amazon.com, which has been expanding its own ad business, should give investors a clearer picture of how holiday demand is shaping up when it releases results Thursday.

Meta, Snap and Alphabet all use revenue from digital ads to fund investments in new technology. A pullback in that market could make it harder to spend heavily on AI innovation and other big bets. Even though investors have rewarded stocks that show strength in AI, there’s less support when a company’s main revenue stream is at risk.

At Meta, Li acknowledged that steady profits are vital if it wants to maintain its ambitions. “We recognize that we have to earn the ability to invest in all of those things by delivering consolidated operating income growth over time,” she said.

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Olectra Greentech sees major FPI participation in its Rs 800-crore fund-raising plan

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Electric mobility firm Olectra Greentech is expecting major participation from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) when it raises up to Rs 800 crore through the issuance of security. The company will fix the date of fundraising at its AGM on September 28.

According to a senior company official, Rs 800 crore will be raised through issuance of equity shares and sale of securities convertible into equities. These could include issuance of warrants through one or more private offerings. Olectra Greentech expects around 50% of the targeted fund-raising to come from FPIs.

The company seeks to use the fund for its expansion plans. Olectra has already acquired 150 acres at Seetharampur in Hyderabad from Telengana State Industrial Infrastructure Development Corporation for setting up a new plant. The new unit will have a production capacity of 5,000 electric buses and trucks, and other EVs with a scalability of up to 10,000 units, the company’s annual report said.

Olectra, a part of the Hyderabad based Megha Engineering & Infrastructure, has already delivered 769 electric buses to 13 state transport undertakings.

High stock market volatility ahead of Budget 2021; Sanjiv Bhasin has these sectors in focus | IIFL INTERVIEW

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Indian share markets will witness extreme volatility in this week just ahead of Union Budget 2021, with the January F&O contracts expiring on January 28, 2021, says Sanjiv Bhasin, Director, IIFL Securities Ltd. Besides Budget, Sanjiv Bhasin says that factors such as global liquidity, rise in bonds or US Dollar, and stimulus announcement from US President Joe Biden, are among few factors which may impact Indian share markets in the coming days. In an interview with Surbhi Jain of Financial Express Online, Sanjiv Bhasin said there are a lot of opportunities in a few sectors for retail investors. For the first time investors, he advises to keep a systematic investment plan (SIP) as market valuations are quite high. The COVID-19 pandemic offered once in a lifetime opportunity to the investors. Here are edited excerpts:

With Sensex, Nifty making new highs, where do you see the indices going in the run-up to the Union Budget 2021?

What tax changes markets expect from the Budget this year?

Well, nothing much, just some tinkering with fiscal numbers and some extra on sin tax etc. The market would look for some relief being given to insurance as Covid reinsurance could be much more widespread than ever and the government can make it attractive to be insured in the future. The market would be hurt if any cess on Covid is levied as consumers do not need any more taxes.

What would you advise first-time stock market investors? Which sectors look attractive?

Kindly do a SIP as valuations are expensive and you may never be able to time the markets. This pandemic was once in a lifetime opportunity which came in March and those who seized it would be laughing their way to the bank. Either way, if you were invested or doing a SIP through mutual funds or directly then you would have by default participated in the fall.

Apart from Budget, what are the key risks and triggers in markets?

Global liquidity is calling the shots and if any rise in bonds or US Dollar comes suddenly then the repatriation of flows can cause a sudden correction, secondly, markets are looking forward to a big stimulus from the new President-elect which if falls short could again see a correction.

With new COVID strain cases, do you see that impacting the markets in any way?

Global liquidity and money printing at the lowest interest rates are fuelling the markets which are looking beyond the new strain as the vaccine makes up for the damage over the next few months. Also, India stands out as we have avoided the strain with herd immunity enabling the resumption of normal activity much faster than the rest of the world.

Has the COVID vaccine rollout changed the sentiments? Is Indian economy in recovery mode?

It has improved the sentiment and the psychological aspect as the individual is now more receptive to acceptance of the virus and learned to handle it better with keeping necessary precautions. India has been one of the better performers as we have seen herd immunity with correct precautions act in less affliction to the new strain which has been avoided.

Where do you see opportunities for retail investors in markets right now?

Materials as in steel and cement, pharma and IT along with consumption as auto numbers are most positive.

Petrol, Diesel Price Today, 27 Sep 2022: Fuel cost static; check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, Noida, other cities

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Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Lucknow: The price of petrol and diesel has been kept steady on 27 September 2022 (Tuesday), keeping costs steady for more than three months now. The petrol rate and diesel rates in Delhi are at Rs 96.72 and Rs 89.62 a litre, respectively. In Mumbai, petrol is retailing at Rs 106.31 per litre and diesel at Rs 94.27 per litre. The last country-wide change in price came on 21 May 2022, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a cut in excise duty on petrol by Rs 8 per litre and Rs 6 per litre on diesel. Since then, Maharashtra is the only state to have cut rates. The Maharashtra government had announced a cut in value-added tax (VAT) on petrol by Rs 5 a litre and by Rs 3 a litre for diesel in July.

Also read: Rupee likely to depreciate further on strong dollar, weak Asian peers; may slip to 82 per USD

Also read: Infosys, Embassy REIT, Jubilant FoodWorks, Mahindra Logistics, Forbes & Co, Orient Bell stocks in focus

Petrol, diesel prices in Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Lucknow, Noida, Gurugram

Mumbai: Petrol price: Rs 106.31 per litre, Diesel price: 94.27 per litre

Delhi: Petrol price: Rs 96.72 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 89.62 per litre

Chennai: Petrol price: Rs 102.63 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 94.24 per litre

Kolkata: Petrol price: Rs 106.03 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 92.76 per litre

Bengaluru: Petrol: Rs 101.94 per litre, Diesel: Rs 87.89 per litre

Lucknow: Petrol: Rs 96.57 per litre, Diesel: Rs 89.76 per litre

Noida: Petrol: Rs 96.79 per litre, Diesel: Rs 89.96 per litre

Gurugram: Petrol: Rs 97.18 per litre, Diesel: Rs 90.05 per litre

Chandigarh: Petrol: Rs 96.20 per litre, Diesel: Rs 84.26 per litre

Public sector OMCs including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) revise the fuel prices daily in line with international benchmark prices and foreign exchange rates. Any changes in petrol and diesel prices are implemented from 6 am every day. Retail petrol and diesel prices differ from state to state because of local taxes like VAT or freight charges.

Global Markets: Dust settles on stocks surge, OPEC+ talks supply cuts

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World stocks clung to two-week highs on Wednesday, although another aggressive rate increase from New Zealand tempered the idea that central banks may be close to slowing down the pace of rapid monetary tightening.

Oil prices inched higher before a meeting of OPEC+ producers to discuss a big cut in crude output, after gaining more than 3% in the previous session.

The S&P 500 index posted its biggest single-day rally in two years on Tuesday after softer U.S. economic data and a smaller-than-expected interest rate hike from Australia stirred hope for less aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries, which move inversely to prices, are down 12 basis points this week, as hopes for a slowdown in rapid Fed tightening took hold.

But a more cautious tone surfaced on Wednesday, with a sharp rate rise in New Zealand dampening hopes for a pause or slowdown in aggressive hikes from other major central banks.

“There is a growing sense that the market may have got ahead of itself in thinking that inflation has peaked and central banks will start to dial back on their hawkish stances,” said Stuart Cole, Head Macro Economist at Equiti Capital.

“Until we see material falls in CPI I think central banks will remain in hawkish mode and willing to accept a moderation in growth – ie mild recession – if that is the price to pay to get the inflation genie back in the bottle,” he added.

Also Read: Global Markets: Stocks, bonds rally as investors spy possible central bank ‘pivot’; pound

European shares fell, sending the region’s STOXX 600 index down 0.9% by 1114 GMT after a 5% rally in the previous three sessions. S&P 500 futures fell by 0.8%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 2.4%, catching up with the strong gains seen on Wall Street during the previous session.

That left MSCI’s World Stock Index up around 0.1%, having touched its highest level in around two weeks earlier in the session.

WAITING FOR OPEC+Investors closely awaited a crucial supply decision from OPEC+ due later on Wednesday, which could have global implications for already high energy prices and inflation.

After making strong gains the previous day, U.S. crude rose 0.6% to $87.08 a barrel and Brent crude gained 0.7% firmer at $92.43 per barrel.

OPEC+, which includes Russia and Saudi Arabia, could cut between 1 and 2 million barrels a day, according to a Reuters report.

U.S. Treasury yields headed back higher and the dollar steadied, having suffered its heaviest setback in more than two years on Tuesday. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries , were 6.6 basis points higher at 3.6828%.

The dollar was 0.2% firmer at 144.4 yen, while the euro was around 0.7% softer at $0.9920, having gained 1.7% on Tuesday in its biggest one-day percentage gain since March.

“Despite European assets rebounding quite sharply, it’s hard to point to any material change in the eurozone’s outlook that would warrant a significant return of market appetite for the euro just yet,” said ING currency strategist Francesco Pesole.

Elsewhere, spot gold traded at around $1,709 per ounce, down about 1%.

Gurh Madhya Pradesh Assembly Constituency Election 2023: Date of Result, Voting, Counting; Candidates

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Gurh MP Assembly Election 2023 Details: The election for Gurh Assembly Constituency in Madhya Pradesh will be held on November 17 this year. The final date of voting and result were known after the formal announcement by the Election Commission of India. Here are the important details of the Gurh Constituency Assembly Election 2023 that you should know.

Gurh Constituency Madhya Pradesh Assembly Election 2023: Voting Date

November 17 is the date of voting for the Gurh Assembly Constituency Election 2023 as announced by the Election Commission of India.

Gurh Constituency Madhya Pradesh Election 2023: Candidates List

Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), Congress and other political parties in the state will announce their candidates for the Gurh Assembly Constituency Election 2023 after the announcement of voting dates by the Election Commission of India.

Why Gurh Constituency Assembly Election 2023 is Important

Gurh is a state Assembly/Vidhan Sabha constituency in the state of Madhya Pradesh and is part of the Gurh Lok Sabha/Parliamentary constituency. Gurh falls in the Gurh district of Madhya Pradesh and is categorised as an urban seat.

Gurh Constituency MP Election Result: What happened in 2018

Nagendra Singh of the Bharatiya Janata Party was the winning candidate from the Gurh constituency in the MP Assembly elections 2018, securing 42569 votes while 34741 votes were polled in favour of Kapidhwaj Singh “bhaiya” of the Samajwadi Party. The margin of victory was 7828 votes.

2018 Gurh Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesNagendra SinghBharatiya Janata Party42569

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) Nagendra Singh Bharatiya Janata Party 42569 (28.77%) Kapidhwaj Singh “bhaiya” Samajwadi Party 34741 (23.48%) Sunderlal Tiwari Indian National Congress 32735 (22.13%) Muniraj Patel Bahujan Samaj Party 27063 (18.29%) Balendra Kumar Shukla Aam Aadmi Party 1639 (1.11%) Ramniwash Vishwakarma Independent 1623 (1.1%) Jitendra Mishra Independent 1177 (0.8%) Sheshmani Kol Independent 832 (0.56%) None Of The Above None Of The Above 831 (0.56%) Kamleshwar Tiwari Independent 756 (0.51%) Nandlal Sen Jan Samman Party 728 (0.49%) Rannulal Saket Independent 712 (0.48%) Jai Prakash Kushwaha Jan Adhikar Party 574 (0.39%) Dhirendra Singh Patel Bhartiya Shakti Chetna Party 496 (0.34%) Sanjay Chaurasiya Shiv Sena 440 (0.3%) Surendra Sen Republican Party Of India 416 (0.28%) Prabhudatta Dubey Mama Sapaks Party 337 (0.23%) Ramesh Kumar Bari 271 (0.18%)

Gurh Constituency MP Election Result: What happened in 2013

Sundar Lal Tiwari of the Indian National Congress was the winning candidate from the Gurh constituency in the MP Assembly elections 2013, securing 33741 votes while 32359 votes were polled in favour of Nagendra Singh of the Bharatiya Janata Party. The margin of victory was 1382 votes.

2013 Gurh Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesSundar Lal TiwariIndian National Congress33741

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) Sundar Lal Tiwari Indian National Congress 33741 (25.33%) Nagendra Singh Bharatiya Janata Party 32359 (24.29%) Muniraj Patel Bahujan Samaj Party 26099 (19.59%) Kapidhwaj Singh Bhaiya Independent 25510 (19.15%) Nityanand Kushwaha Independent 2319 (1.74%) Ramkripal Saket Independent 2008 (1.51%) Ram Sundar Sharma (lamba Kurta) Independent 1120 (0.84%) Dherend Singh Bhartiya Shakti Chetna Party 1107 (0.83%) Buddhsen Patel (purv Sansad) Rashtriya Parivartan Dal 1099 (0.82%) Master Buddhsen Abhishek Kumar Patel Apna Dal 1088 (0.82%) Amresh Patel Samajwadi Party 1084 (0.81%) Ramkrishan Shyamlal Yadav Vidhi Salahkar 996 (0.75%) Mahesh Bhupati Independent 971 (0.73%) None Of The Above None Of The Above 913 (0.69%) Brijkishor Sharma National People’s Party 682 (0.51%) Sudhansu Kumar Independent 577 (0.43%) Dineshdhar Dwivedi Independent 551 (0.41%) Dinesh Kumar Soni Urf Dinnu Independent 522 (0.39%) Ramkisan Nirat (saket) Republican Party Of India (a) 474 (0.36%)

Gurh Constituency MP Election Result: What happened in 2008

Nagendra Singh of the BJP was the winning candidate from the Gurh constituency in the MP Assembly elections 2008, securing 31689 votes while 20311 votes were polled in favour of Rajendra Mishra of the INC. The margin of victory was 11378 votes.

2008 Gurh Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesNagendra SinghBJP31689

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) Nagendra Singh BJP 31689 (32.7%) Rajendra Mishra INC 20311 (20.96%) Narayan Mishra BSP 17699 (18.26%) Vishmmbhar Nath Patel BJSH 11416 (11.78%) Rajesh Rajak IND 2301 (2.37%) Lakhan Gautam SP 1538 (1.59%) Mamta Narendra Singh IND 1491 (1.54%) Ram Kishan Nirat IND 1330 (1.37%) Satya Narayan Shukla CPI 1259 (1.3%) Ram Sufal Yadav IND 1120 (1.16%) Rajkumar Kol LJP 1092 (1.13%) Prem Lal Rawat IND 955 (0.99%) Rajendra Singh Patel JD(U) 894 (0.92%) Savitri Kol IND 726 (0.75%) Vinod Kumar Awasthi RSMD 628 (0.65%) Ram Jiyawan Gupta IND 575 (0.59%) Shankar Dayal Manjhi GMS 522 (0.54%) Ramayan Prasad Patel YVP 495 (0.51%) Raghvendra Singh Patel AD 458 (0.47%) Munna Sarkar Khatik RPI(A) 423 (0.44%)

Nifty turns negative for 2022, Sensex falls 1.5%, Bank Nifty tumbles 3%; what is dragging markets today?

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Indian benchmark indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 fell over 1.5 per cent to hit the lowest level since 30 Aug 2022, and Bank Nifty index plunged nearly 3 per cent intraday as market participants remained cautious fearing that aggressive rate hike by US Fed, and slowing Chinese economy could weigh on global economic growth. The US Fed clearly signalled this week that it is willing to tolerate a recession to get inflation back in control when it raised the rate by another 75 bps. In addition, its updated economic projections showed slower GDP growth and higher inflation. According to analysts at ICICI Securities, given the Fed’s hawkish stance to tame inflation, the US may enter a recession by the second quarter of FY23.

Tracking, weak global markets following the hawkish Fed commentary, Indian equity markets declined for the third straight day on Friday. “The Fed rate hike was already discounted, but the expectations of further rate hike in the next meeting drag-down the market more. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar putting additional pressure on the Indian equity market and FII inflows have reduced in September as compared to August. Apart from this the expected rate hike by RBI in its monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week also putting the pressure,” said Akhilesh Jat, Category Manager – Equity Research.

Key factors dragging domestic equity markets

Profit booking in banking stocks: The outperforming index of the last few weeks, Nifty Bank is putting a heavy load on the Indian share market today. Banking stocks are in red due to the sharp rise in USDINR, and the risk of a recession looming all over the world. Next week there is a RBI policy meeting, so there is profit booking in banking stocks, said Vishal Vasant Wagh, Head of Research at Bonanza Portfolio.

Hawkish RBI expectations: The RBI Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet during September 28-30. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the MPC decision on September 30, the last date of the meeting. Traders are now awaiting RBI to smoothen the liquidity and talk about the current run in the currency and falling reserves. Analysts expect the MPC to raise repo rate by 50 bps versus 35 bps previously and a 35 bps hike in the December meeting, with upside risk to the forecast if commodity prices are higher in the fourth quarter of FY23. Investors are cautious anticipating hawkish commentary from the central bank as inflation rose back to 7% in August.

Shrinking liquidity: The banking system liquidity slipped into a deficit for the first time in forty months. The change in the liquidity situation has come due to advance tax outflows for the second quarter. In order to smooth the liquidity, RBI conducted Rs 50,000 crore Variable Rate Repo (VRR) auction on Thursday. According to analysts, there will be demand for funds going forward as the festive season begins. RBI is monitoring the situation and will take necessary steps, they added.

Lofty valuations: India’s premium valuation to its global peers and other Asian markets is unsustainable, said BNP Paribas in a note recently. “Amid slowing global demand, lofty market valuations, a slowdown in retail flows and lack of positive catalyst for our earnings estimates, we remain cautious on the overall market returns in the near term,” BNP Paribas said adding, “historically, at this level, market returns in the next one year have remained muted and thus warrants caution”.

Also Read: Tata Steel shares jump, TRF hits lower circuit, Tinplate, Tata Metaliks fall after board okays mega merger

Cut in India’s economic growth estimates: In the past few days, a number of global rating agencies have revised their forecasts for India’s economic growth downwards after the June quarter GDP data showed that the Indian economy had expanded at a slower-than-expected 13.1% from a year ago. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut its 2022-23 growth projection for India’s economy to 7% from 7.5% estimated in April. Fitch Ratings slashed its FY23 GDP growth forecast for India to 7% from 7.8% announced earlier. Moody’s trimmed its real growth forecast to 7.7% for calendar year 2022 from an earlier projection of 8.8%. Goldman Sachs also cut its FY22 growth forecast for India to 7% from 7.6%.

Rupee likely to depreciate on strong dollar, risk aversion in equity markets; USDINR to trade in this range

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The Indian Rupee is expected to depreciate on Thursday, following an overnight hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve. Higher level selling can be seen in the USDINR pair on RBI intervention, according to analysts. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 79.20 to Rs 81 in the next couple of sessions. In the previous session, rupee declined against the US dollar, tracking the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and a muted trend in domestic equities. Risk-off mood and firm crude oil prices weighed on the local unit. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic currency opened at 79.81 per dollar, and it settled at 80.00, down 26 paise over its previous close.

Also Read: Powell signals more pain to come with Fed sending rates higher to tame inflation

Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

“Rupee consolidated in the first half of the session but fell in the latter half as market participants remain cautious ahead of FOMC policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another 75 basis points and signalled more large increases at its upcoming meetings. The Fed’s new projections showed its policy rate rising to 4.4% by the end of the year, before peaking at 4.6% in 2023 to curb uncomfortably high inflation.Fed Chairman said there is no painless way to bring inflation down, reiterating that it wants to act aggressively now and keep at it.”

“He added that the Fed’s actions are likely to result in slower growth and higher unemployment. The Fed said that “recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production,” but the new projections put year-end economic growth for 2022 at 0.2%, rising to 1.2% in 2023, well below the economy’s potential.Today, focus will be on the Bank of England policy statement; expectation is that the central bank could raise rates by another 50bps and a hawkish stance would restrict losses for the currency. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 79.70 and 80.40.”

Sugandha Sachdeva, Vice President – Commodity and Currency Research, Religare Broking

An overall backdrop of risk aversion due to renewed concerns about the escalation of conflict in Ukraine, and strong gains witnessed in the greenback have pushed the Indian rupee on a lower trajectory ahead of another hefty rate hike by the US Fed. Markets would be closely reacting to economic projections by the US central bank which will provide further direction to the Indian rupee. As the domestic currency is trading just shy of the crucial 80 to the dollar mark, we envisage it to provide a cushion to the local unit. On the contrary, a decisive breach of the 80.10 mark would fuel further depreciation in the rupee-dollar exchange rate.

Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities

“USDINR spot closed at 79.98, up 23 paise, highest level since 20th July. With US bond yields surging to highest levels since 2007 and US Dollar Index at the highest level since June 2002, USDINR has also closed near 80 handle. Bias remains upward. USDINR can play within a range of 79.50 and 80.30 over the near term.”

Also Read: Share Market LIVE: Nifty, Sensex may open in red on weekly F&O expiry; Fed delivers another jumbo 75 bps hike

Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

“Indian rupee depreciated by 0.29% on Wednesday on weak domestic markets and a strong US Dollar. Dollar surged on renewed safe haven appeal after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced partial military mobilsation. The surge in crude oil prices added to the downside pressure on Rupee. Domestic markets surged by about 0.3% lower. We expect Rupee to trade with a negative bias amid deteriorating global risk sentiments post Russian President’s address to the nation and a hawkish US Federal Reserve. Market participants may look for cues on future guidance by the Fed. Investors may also take cues from existing home sales data which is expected weaker than previous reading. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 79.20 to Rs 81 in next couple of sessions.”