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Planning to Buy a Car? Find Out the Best Months for Awesome Deals!

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India’s love affair with cars continues to grow stronger, with the automobile industry showcasing remarkable resilience. According to the latest industry data, India witnessed an increase in total vehicle sales, with passenger vehicle sales reaching 38,90,114 units in FY 2022-23 as compared to 30,69,523 units in the previous year. This reflects the growing aspirations of India’s burgeoning middle class.

Speaking of the growing middle class, buying a car is a significant milestone, a decision that blends practicality with passion. But, beyond the make and model, there’s another crucial factor that often goes overlooked – timing. In India’s dynamic auto market, the timing of your car purchase can significantly impact the deal you get. That’s when the most crucial questions arise- when is the perfect month to drive home the dream car, what are the nuances of ‘when to buy a car in India’, and how can we decode the ideal months for the dream car purchase. You can also check car insurance calculator which is a useful tool that helps individuals estimate their insurance premiums based on various factors such as vehicle type, location, driving history, and coverage options.

Let’s take a journey through the calendar year and uncover the best months to buy a car in India:

New Year, New Models (January-February): As the new year begins, automakers unveil their latest models and Auto Expos also showcase new models and concepts that generate excitement amongst the early adopters. While this may lure buyers, there are dealers who often offer significant discounts to clear old model-year stock. The clearance sales include year-end bonuses, making it ideal for bargain hunters looking for last year’s models.

Financial Year-End Closures and Offers (March): March is significant for both buyers and businesses as the financial year ends. The car manufacturers and dealerships often pull out all the stops to attract buyers. Attractive incentives, discounts, and offers make March an excellent time for car shopping, especially if you’re looking for tax benefits.

Mid-Year Lull (April to June): This is the period after the year-end and before the festivities and therefore, it has been seen that there is a slow-down in car sales. In order to increase sales, dealerships offer attractive discounts and financing options, which can turn to your advantage.

Monsoon Blues (July) – The monsoon season often results in lower car sales due to weather-related concerns. To maintain cash flow, dealerships may offer attractive deals to boost sales during this period.

Pre-Festive Shenanigans (August): This is the time when India is preparing for festivals and getting in the excitement for pre-festivities. The month begins with early bird offers. Companies create anticipation for upcoming festival deals and buyers can start planning purchases for the festive season.

The Festival Favorites (September-November): The most exciting time – India’s festive season, from Diwali to Dussehra and Christmas, witnesses a surge in car buying. During this period, automakers roll out enticing discounts and special offers, creating an excellent opportunity for a lucrative deal. If you are planning to buy a car, the festive season can be a good time to welcome the new addition to your family.

Year-End Deals (December): As the year concludes, dealerships are often eager to meet sales targets, leading to substantial discounts. Additionally, manufacturers prepare to introduce new models in January, motivating dealers to clear out the previous year’s stock. With year-end savings, December is indeed a great option for people looking forward to buying a car.

Planning to Buy a Car? Find Out the Best Months for Awesome Deals!

We can all agree that a dream car isn’t just a mode of transportation; it’s a symbol of aspiration, passion, and achievement. It holds a special place in our hearts, and we want the best for our long-awaited dream car. Therefore, it becomes imperative to consider another overlooked aspect of car ownership, i.e., insurance. Just as timing matters for your car purchase, selecting the right insurance policy is essential to ensure comprehensive coverage and peace of mind.

Selecting the right partner for your car insurance can make all the difference and when it comes to the best, you can leave it to the pros in the market. From third-party liability coverage to comprehensive plans, Bajaj Allianz General Insurance can fulfil this role by offering a plan that stands out. *

Why Choose Bajaj Allianz Private Car Package Policies?

One of the key factors that make Bajaj Allianz General Insurance the best insurance partner is its commitment to comprehensive coverage. It offers a wide range of coverage options, including protection against accidents, theft, natural calamities, and more, as specified in the policy wordings. This comprehensive approach ensures that you have peace of mind on the road, knowing that your vehicle is well-protected. * Claims are subject to terms and conditions set forth under car insurance policy.

If you choose the Bajaj Allianz General Insurance policy, you get a hassle-free claim process. The transparency and user-friendliness contribute to a hassle-free experience during the often-stressful time of filing a claim. That’s not it! The car insurance policies from Bajaj Allianz General Insurance comply with legal requirements by providing coverage for third-party liabilities. This ensures that you are financially protected in case your vehicle causes damage to someone else’s property or injures a third party. * Claims are subject to terms and conditions set forth under car insurance policy.

Apart from that, there are additional benefits that policyholders can opt for to enhance their coverage. These include zero depreciation cover, engine protector cover, personal baggage cover, and more. The brand’s flexibility in tailoring policies to individual needs is a significant advantage. To make the process easier, you get transparent Terms and Conditions, 24/7 Customer Support, and easy claim processing. What else one can ask for?

In the pursuit of your dream car, one thing should remain unwavering: the commitment to safety. After all, our dream car isn’t just about style; it’s about providing us with secure journeys and cherished memories. Therefore, as we chase the dream, let’s ensure that our prized possession is not only a symbol of aspiration but also a fortress of protection.

* Standard T&C apply.

Insurance is the subject matter of solicitation. For more details on benefits, exclusions, limitations, terms, and conditions, please read the sales brochure/policy wording carefully before concluding a sale.

Petrol and Diesel Price Today, 11 Sep 2022: Fuel prices static; Check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, other cities

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Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Lucknow: The price of petrol and diesel has been kept steady on 11 September 2022 (Sunday), keeping costs steady for more than three months now. Petrol and diesel in Delhi is priced at Rs 96.72 and Rs 89.62 a litre, respectively. In Mumbai, petrol is retailing at Rs 106.31 per litre and diesel at Rs 94.27 per litre. The last country-wide change in price came on 21 May 2022, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a cut in excise duty on petrol by Rs 8 per litre, and Rs 6 per litre on diesel. Since then, Maharashtra is the only state to have cut rates. The Maharashtra government had announced a cut in value-added tax (VAT) on petrol by Rs 5 a litre and by Rs 3 a litre for diesel in July.

The prices of petrol and diesel vary in each state depending upon several factors such as the local taxes, Value Added Tax (VAT), freight charges, etc. Since the central government excise duty cut, only two states have reduced VAT rates on auto fuels. Meghalaya was the last to revise the fuel rates when it increased VAT August 24, because of which petrol now costs Rs. 96.83 per litre in Shillong and diesel is now priced at Rs. 84.72 per litre.

Mumbai: Petrol price: Rs 106.31 per litre, Diesel price: 94.27 per litre

Delhi: Petrol price: Rs 96.72 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 89.62 per litre

Chennai: Petrol price: Rs 102.63 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 94.24 per litre

Kolkata: Petrol price: Rs 106.03 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 92.76 per litre

Bengaluru: Petrol: Rs 101.94 per litre, Diesel: Rs 87.89 per litre

Lucknow: Petrol: Rs 96.57 per litre, Diesel: Rs 89.76 per litre

Noida: Petrol: Rs 96.79 per litre, Diesel: Rs 89.96 per litre

Gurugram: Petrol: Rs 97.18 per litre, Diesel: Rs 90.05 per litre

Chandigarh: Petrol: Rs 96.20 per litre, Diesel: Rs 84.26 per litre

Public sector OMCs including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) revise the fuel prices daily in line with international benchmark prices and foreign exchange rates. Any changes in petrol and diesel prices are implemented from 6 am every day. Retail petrol and diesel prices differ from state to state because of local taxes like VAT or freight charges.

Nifty, Sensex surge 2% on strong global cues as bulls return to D-St; ‘market trend bullish, buy on dips’

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Bulls fuelled pullback rally on Tuesday as Indian equity markets reversed the previous session’s losses to gain over 2 per cent on the back of positive global cues. Frontline indices witnessed a massive buying interest today as Sensex zoomed nearly 1300 points and Nifty 50 settled above 17250. The BSE Sensex closed 2.25 per cent higher at 58,065, while Nifty50 ended 2.29 per cent up at 17,274. “Nifty smartly broke out upwards after sideways consolidation. It will now face resistance in the 17291-17401 band while 17176-17196 band will offer support in the near term,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.

S Ranganathan, Head of Research at LKP securities

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities

“On the backdrop of strong global cues, the benchmark indices bounce back sharply. Technically, after a sharp intraday correction, the index bounce back sharply. Post gap up opening, indices held the level of 17100/57500 and managed to close above the same. They also formed higher bottom formation on intraday charts which indicates continuation of uptrend in the near future. The short-term market structure is positive but due to temporary overbought condition, we could see range-bound activity in the near future. For the traders now, 17200-17150/57800-57600 would be the key support zone whereas 17400-17425/58300-58400 would act as an important resistance zone for the index.”

Palak Kothari, Senior Technical Analyst, Choice Broking

“On the technical front, the Nifty has been trading with the support of above 89-DMA as well as given closing above 200 DMA which points out bullish momentum in the counter. Furthermore, the Nifty has given a breakout of rectangle pattern on an hourly chart which suggests strength for the upside. The support for nifty has shifted around 17000 levels while on the upside 17400 levels may act as an immediate hurdle crossing above the same can open the gate for 17500-17650 levels. On the other hand, Bank nifty has support at 38500 levels while resistance at 39800 levels. Overall, the Nifty has closed above the 17200 level and looking bullish for the upcoming session. Every dip should be considered as buying opportunity.”

(The recommendations in this story are by the respective research analysts and brokerage firms. FinancialExpress.com does not bear any responsibility for their investment advice. Capital markets investments are subject to rules and regulations. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)

Sharing documents with RIL: SC to hear Sebi review plea today

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The Supreme Court will hear on Thursday Sebi’s petition seeking review of its earlier judgment that had directed the market regulator to share certain documents which Reliance Industries (RIL) claims will exonerate it and its promoters from criminal prosecution initiated in a case related to the alleged irregularities in the acquisition of its shares between 1994 and 2000.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has been opposing RIL’s plea and had rejected its request for the “privileged” documents on the grounds that under the Sebi (Settlement Proceedings) Regulations, the accused company had no right to seek information from it.

So far, the market regulator has not shared the three documents – the two legal opinions by former SC judge BN Srikrishna and the former ICAI president YH Malegam’s report which examined the irregularities — that the SC had on August 5 asked it to share “forthwith”, thus prompting RIL to file a contempt petition against Sebi and its authorised representative Vijayan A.

“The duty to act fairly by Sebi is inextricably tied with the principles of natural justice, wherein a party cannot be condemned without having been given an adequate opportunity to defend itself,” the apex court said.

The Ambani firm says Sebi had obviously “misadvised itself” in assuming that its compliance with the judgment is a matter of discretion and on which it can see advice. Even RIL’s contempt petition against Sebi is yet to be taken up for hearing by the SC.

Chartered accountant S Gurumurthy had filed a complaint with Sebi in 2002 alleging fraud and irregularities by RIL, its associate companies and their directors/ promoters, including Mukesh Ambani and his wife Nita; Anil Ambani and his wife Tina; and 98 others in the issue of two preferential placement of non-convertible debentures in 1994.

Sebi had alleged that RIL along with Reliance Petroleum had “circuitously funded the acquisition of its own shares” in violation of Sections 77 and 77A of the Companies Act, 1956 and the market regulator’s then takeover code, among various other regulations.

SBI, BPCL, Hero MotoCorp among stocks to buy, technical charts suggest Nifty may ride towards 14,800

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By Shrikant Chouhan

The market continued to remain positive for the second day in a row. On Tuesday, once again the benchmark index — Nifty/Sensex opened with a strong gap and quickly surpassed 14550/ 48600 mark, which is a short term resistance level. The important point is, the market not only crossed the resistance mark but even traded above 14550/ 48600 levels which is grossly positive for the Nifty /Sensex. Modest broader market participation and strong performance from Metal, PSU Banks and selective financial stocks helped trades to maintain a long stance over short.

Havells India BUY, CMP: Rs 1,028.5, TARGET: Rs 1,080, SL: Rs 1,005

Post decline from the levels of 1231 the stock went into a range-bound movement where a strong bullish activity is spotted near the multiple support zone. Additionally, the formation of a bullish Marubozu candlestick pattern with a good volume suggests a strong up move in the counter.

Hero MotoCorp BUY, CMP: Rs 2,905.5, TARGET: Rs 3,050, SL: Rs 2,840

For the last two months, the stock has drifted downside after hitting the double top chart pattern at around 3620, and thereafter it entered into an accumulation phase near its important support area, finally, a strong reversal candlestick formation indicates the resumption of a bullish uptrend in the coming horizon.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL)BUY, CMP: Rs 420.35, TARGET: Rs 445, SL: Rs 410

The stock has created a good demand base at 400-410 levels, and the recent formation of the Cup and Handle chart pattern on the daily time frame chart indicates bullish movement in the near term is very likely to persist.

State Bank of India (SBI) BUY, CMP: Rs 353.05, TARGET: Rs 370, SL: Rs 345

Post decline SBI formed a Rounding bottom chart pattern near its important retracement zone on the daily chart and the stock has reversed sharply by filling the bearish gap with a strong bullish candle therefore uptrend is expected to continue in the near term.

(Shrikant Chouhan is Executive Vice President (Equity Technical Research), Kotak Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own.)

Nifty has to cross 15,350 to resume bullish trend; ICICI Bank, Tata Motors among 4 technical stocks to buy

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By Shrikant Chouhan

On Tuesday, Indian equity benchmark index turned volatile after the specific announcement on the Loan Moratorium from the Supreme Court. It has helped the Bank Nifty to recover from the lower levels. The formation of a double bottom at 33350 in the Bank Nifty worked positively. Most stocks are at their large support area. Some stocks have formed a bullish reversal pattern today. For example, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and SBIN are at support levels and have formed reversal formations. In the next few days, we will see an upward activity in the Bank Nifty. Furthermore, if you look at the yield on long-term bonds, it is also declining. The Bank Nifty is expected to move closer to 35,000. Maintain a stop loss of 33850. On a daily chart the 50-day moving average was a major hurdle for the market and is positive for the medium-term trend of the market.

Technical stock picks are:

Aurobindo Pharma

BUY, CMP: Rs 846.15, TARGET: Rs 890, SL: Rs 825

Post correction from the highs of around 1000 which had been the supply zone for the stock, it went into a sloping channel formation, ultimately with incremental volume activity the stock formed double bottom chart pattern and retreated from the lower levels for fresh leg of uptrend.

ICICI Bank

BUY, CMP: Rs 511.1, TARGET: Rs 535, SL: Rs 500

On the weekly scale, the stock has formed bullish continuation chart pattern however from last few weeks some corrective formations were spotted due to weakness in broader market but eventually the stock have found support at its important Fibonacci retracement area with modest volume action indicating rebound in the near term.

Tata Motors

BUY, CMP: Rs 307.4, TARGET: Rs 325, SL: Rs 299

The stock has presented a robust rally from lows of 100 to 350 in six months’ time frame, and on monthly scale the trend of the stock is still in to the upward direction. It has formed higher high and higher low chart pattern. However the recent price correction has led the stock to form a double bottom near its bullish gap zone hence we expect revival of upward movement from the important support zone in the coming time horizon.

Birla Corporation Ltd

BUY, CMP: Rs 849.4, TARGET: Rs 890, SL: Rs 830

Post recent run up from 700 to 900 the stock entered into the distribution phase and corrected a bit to its support zone. However, on the daily chart the stock has formed higher bottom series formation with strong bullish candlestick pattern along with positive SAR series which can lift the stock to its previous highs hence we expect bullish momentum in stock likely to continue in the near term.

(Shrikant Chouhan is the Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own.)

The Road India and Pakistan took

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By Farooq Wani

It’s no secret that today Pakistan is overwhelmed by a host of extremely serious adverse security, economic and political issues that are showing no signs of receding and due to this unprecedented crisis, it continues plummeting towards disarray and a possible implosion. Though this self-created catastrophe has impacted the entire country, due to Islamabad’s discriminatory policies, PoK remains one the worst affected areas.

Moreover, unlike Islamabad which continues to neglect PoK, New Delhi has placed development of J&K on high priority by taking the decisive step of abrogating Articles 370 and 35-A, which legally denied Kashmiris the opportunity to benefit from government schemes and initiatives meant for improving quality of life for the masses.

By bifurcating the erstwhile state of J&K into two separate union territories the center has been able to ensure undivided focus on building up political as well as socio-economic stability that had been upset due to years and decades of strife on account of Pakistan sponsored terrorism.

Drawing a comparison of what drives or derails developments in these two major nations of South Asia today makes for interesting reading. So, let’s take up Pakistan first.

Two recent interviews – one of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) leader and former minister Sheikh Rashid, and the other of former three-time Prime Minister, Mohammad Nawaz Sharif brings home the sad truth about a nation that is in steep socio-economic decline and beholden. This problem has always been there since the mid-1950s, primarily as Pakistan’s all-powerful army has always been dictating both the country’s foreign and domestic policy.

Sheikh Rashid, who has been an outspoken supporter of PTI founder and former cricketer Imran Khan said this week that Khan made a big mistake in getting on the wrong side of the Army, which for all practical purposes is a “State within a State” in Pakistan.

“I believe Imran Khan and the PTI made a big mistake in objecting to the selection of Lt. Gen Asif Munir as the next Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan. We (PTI) should never have interfered as this is the prerogative of the Pakistan Army establishment to decide who their next chief will be,” said Rashid.

“Who is senior, who is not senior, what are the problems within the Pakistan Army, if any, should never have been Imran Khan or the PTI’s concern. We should have stayed clear of this,” he added.

This statement points again to the omnipotent influence of the Army in Pakistan’s politics on the one hand, and on the other, reveals the existence of well concealed “dirty laundry” within the armed forces establishment.

Exploiting the weaknesses in the country’s civilian and administrative establishment, the army has time and again been very successful in consolidating its position as “a parallel political and economic power operating without any civilian oversight.”

Take the case of former COAS, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa (Retired). Before hanging up his boots in November 2022, media in Pakistan claimed that his family and he managed to become billionaires. One report by Fact Focus claimed that Gen. Bajwa and his family managed to increase their wealth to 12.7 billion Pakistani Rupees (approximately USD 47 million).

He has since been replaced by Gen Munir, who within a short span of eleven months has ensured the collapse and exit of the Imran Khan-led PTI government. This has given a fresh political lease to the Nawaz Sharif/Shehbaz Sharif-led Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), and managed to allegedly implicate Imran Khan in a series of criminal and corruption-related cases with the help of a compliant judiciary and political establishment. By reshuffling the army top brass to suit his needs, Gen Munir has secured his position as the most powerful man in Pakistan.

Unfortunately, just like his predecessors, Gen Munir has not succeeded in ridding the all-powerful Pakistan Army of corruption. Reports appearing in the public domain reveal that the Pakistan armed forces establishment is also a huge business conglomerate earning over USD 26.5 billion annually. It is a conglomerate run under and by many names such as the Askari Foundation, the Fauji Foundation (Pakistan Army), the Shaheen Foundation (Pakistan Air Force), the Bahria Foundation (Pakistan Navy), the Army Welfare Trust, the Defence Housing Authority.

The stated objective of these organisations is to ensure the wellbeing of armed forces personnel and their families. But it’s a well-known fact that the bulk of beneficiaries are senior officers, who also get many other substantial post-retirement benefits.

The armed forces are involved in almost every field of the Pakistan economy, ranging from real estate, fertilisers, cement manufacturing, wind and solar energy etc. Over a dozen public sector units are controlled by the armed forces as well, which leads one to wonder whether the Pakistan army leadership is seriously involved in their primary task of defending their country’s borders or in running commercial enterprises?

According to new report , “The Officer Corps puts forward a narrative to legitimise their economic ventures and conceal their predatory, kleptocratic behavior”. The army’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) is its propaganda machine in the truest sense, that projects “an image of the army as the only institution with the will or capacity to protect Pakistan.”

The other significant development is the return of three-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan after a gap of four years of self-imposed exile. At 73, he seems ready to make a political comeback in January 2024, and has already ruffled feathers of the army and radicals by calling for better relations with India, and maintaining that Islamabad cannot afford to remain isolated from New Delhi interminably.

In a PML-N rally in Lahore soon after his arrival on Pakistani soil, Sharif said “Pakistan has to try and stand on its feet again. Our honour and prestige as a nation is at stake and we need to rejuvenate it. We have to end unemployment and poverty in Pakistan. We need to think of better policy making. We need to rebuild our connections with our neighbours (read as India) and the world. We cannot be at loggerheads with our neighbours and have good relations with the rest of the world. We have to have good relations with all, and to resolve the issue of Kashmir, we need to move forward with a fresh mind and good planning….”

Does Sharif’s return bode well for Pakistan, for its people, or its economy remains a million dollar question yet to be answered. The people of Pakistan will need a lot of convincing to believe so, knowing that in the past he, his family and the PML-N have been involved in rampant corruption.

The PML-N hopes Sharif can still use his political clout and his “man of the soil” identity to revive the party’s flagging popularity in the midst of socio-economic free fall. For now, he has been granted protective bail till October 24 by the Islamabad High Court, removing the threat of him being arrested.

Let’s now review India’s standing in South Asia. In contrast to Pakistan, India is marching forward with vigour. It has grown at an average annual pace of 6.6 percent in the last decade. In 2022-23, it had a growth rate of 7.2 percent and it has outperformed most other major economies, including China. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that India will continue to grow by over six percent in the next few years and is on track to be the world’s third largest economy. All of its socio-economic indices for and on development point it out as an emerging and promising market for the rest of the world.

Pakistan in contrast has a deflating Inflation of 21.3 percent, the highest since December 2008 when inflation stood at 23.3 percent. It has to service a loan of USD 2.3 billion taken from a Chinese consortium of banks; floods have caused economic losses of over USD 30 billion dollars and at the end of September this year, its foreign currency reserves stood at an abysmal USD 13.079 billion, which was a slight improvement over USD 10 billion that it had in the week ending September 8. Last December, it was at an almost four-year low of USD 6.7 billion. It has foreign exchange reserves equal to just five weeks of merchandise imports.

With Islamabad continuing to depend on foreign borrowing to stay afloat and the army refusing to cut down on its lavish defence expenditure, the Pakistani rupee is consistently depreciating due to which the country will stay in a state of deep economic crisis for quite some more time.

The author is Editor Brighter Kashmir, Author, TV commentator, political analyst and columnist. Email: [email protected]

Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.

One 97 Communications Ltd Rating: Overweight | Margin improvement in payment business

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We hosted PayTM at our Financials tour 2022. PayTM is undergoing a model shift from chasing “growth at any loss” to “profitability at scale”. The company maintained its guidance of Adj. Ebitda profitability by Sep-23 – which we believe most investors remain skeptical of —rightly so given the sharp increase in indirect expenses since listing, negating gains in contribution margin (CM) since last year. Moderation in indirect expenses Q2 onwards should hence be a catalyst. On the other hand, contribution margin should enjoy incremental tailwinds from (i) incentive income from below-normal loss rates in syndicated loans, (ii) scale-up of co-brand credit card issuances, and (iii) potential UPI P2M (person to merchant) subsidy. We estimate incremental CM of 60% – well above 43% in Q1F23- suggesting scope for more improvement. Q2 earnings print on loss reduction rate will be a key catalyst.

Paytm’s annualised loan disbursement run-rate stands at ~Rs 290 bn as of Aug-22 and its penetration stands at 4% and <0.5% of MTU for postpaid and personal loans respectively and 4% of device merchants for merchant loans (as at Jun-22). The company sees a long runway for growth in the segment driven by potential for (i) growth in its MTU (79mn as of Aug-22; +40% y/y) and device merchant (4.5mn as of Aug-22 – guided to add ~1mn per quarter) base, and (ii) increasing penetration among the base. The company also noted that its portfolio credit losses are running below levels underwritten by financing partners, which can additionally drive scope for incentive income on its syndicated loan book.

Paytm has been improving the margins of its payments business driven by (i) scale-up of merchant devices (driving rental revenue; ~12-15 month payback on its signature Soundbox device) and (ii) rationalising processing costs. Further tailwinds to margins exist from potential UPI P2M monetisation either from MDR introduction (unlikely) or from increased subsidies from the government to support network investments. UPI’s P2M becoming monetizable via government rebate is a major mid-term positive for payment economics.

Fintech’s funding winter should reduce competitive intensity – Competitive intensity could moderate in the payments/digital lending space from fintechs given the tightening of funding and regulatory hold in the sector. In our view, this could benefit Paytm as it is well funded to drive expansion and has also highlighted that it is compliant with the digital lending regulatory guidelines, which we think can clear the regulatory overhang on the FS part of its business model.We expect PAYTM to see strong revenue growth across all its business segments thanks to device monetisation in payments, financial services cross-selling, ticketing recovery and rising ad monetisation.

Wall Street falls as Fed, Ford forecasts, give fright

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Wall Street ended Tuesday lower as the eve of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting expected to bring another large interest rate hike brought further evidence of the impact on corporate America from the inflation that the U.S. central bank wants to tame. The benchmark S&P 500 index has dropped 19.1% so far this year as investors fear aggressive policy tightening measures by the Fed could tip the U.S. economy into a recession. It closed for the third straight session below 3,900 points – a level considered by technical analysts as a strong support for the index – as last week’s dire outlook from delivery firm FedEx Corp was repeated, this time by automaker Ford Motor Co.

Shares of Ford slumped 12.3%, the biggest one-day drop since 2011, after it flagged a bigger-than-expected $1 billion hit from inflation and pushed delivery of some vehicles to the fourth quarter due to parts shortages. Rival General Motors Co also sank 5.6%. “We have seen some bellwethers talk about the pressures they are facing, so we could see some margin compression and some softening in the topline numbers in the third-quarter earnings,” said Greg Boutle, head of U.S. equity & derivative strategy at BNP Paribas.

The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hike rates by 75 basis points for the third straight time at the end of its policy meeting on Wednesday, with markets also pricing in a 17% chance of a 100 bps increase and predicting the terminal rate at 4.49% by March 2023. Focus will also be on the updated economic projections and dot plot estimates for cues on policymakers’ sense of the endpoint for rates and the outlooks for unemployment, inflation and economic growth. Adding to the mix, a Commerce Department report showed residential building permits – among the more forward-looking housing indicators – slid by 10% to 1.517 million units, the lowest level since June 2020.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit 3.56%, its highest level since April 2011, while the closely watched yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes inverted further. An inversion in this part of the yield curve is viewed as a reliable indicator that a recession will follow in one to two years. “There are a lot of headwinds to prevent sustained rallies. It’s hard to have (price-to-earnings) expansion while the Fed is tightening,” said BNP’s Boutle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 313.45 points, or 1.01%, to 30,706.23, the S&P 500 lost 43.96 points, or 1.13%, to 3,855.93 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 109.97 points, or 0.95%, to 11,425.05.

All of the 11 major S&P sectors declined, with economy-sensitive real estate and materials sectors the biggest fallers, dropping 2.6% and 1.9% respectively. Meanwhile, in another sign of nerves around future corporate earnings, Nike Inc fell 4.5% after the sportswear giant was downgraded by Barclays analysts to “equal weight” from “overweight”, citing volatility in the Chinese market due to pressures from COVID-related lockdowns in early September. Another apparel maker, Gap Inc, closed 3.3% lower. It announced on Tuesday it was eliminating about 500 corporate jobs, having withdrawn its annual forecasts late last month due to an inventory glut and weak sales.

Also Read: ACC, Ambuja Cements, Adani Group, Wipro, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Steel, Central Bank of India stocks in focus

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.90 billion shares, compared with the 10.71 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. The S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and 66 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 31 new highs and 408 new lows.

Using AI to filter stocks; here’s what Upside AI’s algorithm is indicating for stock markets ahead

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The pandemic has made humans more dependent on technology, be it for working, shopping and now even for investing. Upside AI — a SEBI registered Portfolio Management Service (PMS) is among the first funds in India to use machine learning to make fundamental investment decisions. The technology-focused fund believes that the next Warren Buffett would be Artificial Intelligence. Kanika Agarrwal, Co-founder and Chief Investment Officer, Upside AI in interaction with Kshitij Bhargava of Financial Express Online, discussed how their algorithm works and what it believes is in store for stock markets next. Here are the edited excerpts.

You use an exciting mechanism to gauge the market, what does it say about the current market situation and where is it expected to go in the coming future?

Therefore, the decision any investor must make is two-fold – 

(1) Am I comfortable with my equity allocation?

(2) Given the market conditions today, what are good stocks to hold?    

Given that we are an equity investor, the first question is answered. Hence, we are mainly answering the second question – “what will the market think is a good company next quarter”.   

At the moment, based on our analysis of current market conditions, our multi cap portfolio is weighted towards small caps and value stocks. 

We have heard arguments in favour of a bottom-up approach when going stock shopping now; do you believe in that approach? How would you go by doing that?

We are a primarily bottom-up shop. So far, technology has been used in high frequency, technical analysis, etc in India. However, bottom-up, fundamental analysis has been the domain of human managers.

If you analyse long term data, you will see that humans by and large perform similar to the index as humans are driven by emotion and prone to make suboptimal decisions.

Therefore, we are trying to solve investing (not trading) by using machine learning. The idea is to feed in financial numbers of companies and let the machine determine what it means to be “fundamentally good” in current market conditions. As markets are constantly evolving, the meaning of “good stocks” also changes – some periods, PE does not matter as much as growth, in others the debt is far more important. Of course, we do a layer of corporate governance checks to capture data the machine cannot about the quality of the numbers.

Technology has been an enabler more so than ever in this decade, Upside AI is a product of that, but is there more upside potential in IT stock from here?

You will find a lot of sectors clocking that have done well since March. For IT specifically, the long-term story of the disproportionate role technology will play in our lives remains the same. Therefore, IT as a sector will be a good buy intuitively (just like, say consumer stocks). The question we must answer is what is a good stock at current prices? 

Therefore, the call we are taking is more company fundamental specific and not so much at the sector level. Who is the disruptor and who is the disrupted? Kodak invented the digital camera in 1975 – and then buried it because it would cannibalise its existing business. Kodak went bankrupt in 2012.

We were big believers of the IT theme before the rally started, right from Jan-20 onwards. Within our top 250 product, we bought Mindtree, HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra. All three have done very well for us – Mindtree has nearly doubled this year. As we go into the new year, we will maintain a 20% allocation to IT. 

Is it time to go hunting small caps and midcaps in the coming quarter? What does your algorithm lean towards?

This is a broader asset allocation call which depends on your risk appetite and wealth distribution. We are big believers of the mid/ small cap story and have focused on them over the last 18 months. 

Our Multicap product ends up heavily weighting mid/ small caps. If you are planning to buy small caps in the next quarter, you should be averaging and buying all year – it is more a function of allocation than an opportunity. 

Value or growth investing what would you go for?

The main reason we built our products is that no one thing works consistently anymore. A value/ growth/ IT/ pharma investor will do well only in a small snapshot of time and then revert to mean. Therefore, machine learning allows us to let markets guide the type of investor we should be that quarter and dynamically change, quickly and consistently.  

What sectors are you preferring from here on as we march towards the ‘old normal’?

We currently own some metals, pharma, textiles and consumer stocks. The portfolio is straddling defensive and cyclical sectors.