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Wall Street jumps over 1% to start fourth quarter

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U.S. stock indexes rose on Monday after sharp declines last week although losses in Tesla Inc capped the gains on the Nasdaq after the world’s most valuable electric-vehicle maker missed quarterly delivery targets. Ten of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors advanced in early trading, with the energy sector leading gains.

Megacap growth and technology companies such as Apple and Microsoft also advanced 1.5% each.”We could see a rebound in the beginning of the quarter simply due to the low sentiment and the lows that were reached at the tail-end of the last quarter,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer for private wealth at Glenmede in Philadelphia.

“Meanwhile, major automakers are expected to report modest declines in U.S. new vehicle sales, but analysts and investors are concerned that a darkening economic picture, not inventory shortages, will lead to a drop in future car sales.Tesla Inc fell 7% after it sold fewer-than-expected vehicles in the third quarter as deliveries lagged way behind production due to logistic hurdles. Peers Lucid Group fell 2% and Rivian Automotive 3.9%.Oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp rose more than 3%, tracking a jump in crude prices as sources said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are considering their biggest output cut since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

ALSO READ US stock market sheds over 8% in September

At 10:04 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 445.72 points, or 1.55%, at 29,171.23, the S&P 500 was up 54.78 points, or 1.53%, at 3,640.40, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 127.33 points, or 1.20%, at 10,702.95.Data showed global factory output mostly weakened in September as slowing demand added to the pain from persistent cost pressures and tighter monetary policy, diminishing economic recovery prospects.

In the United States, manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace in nearly 2-1/2 years in September as new orders contracted, likely as rising interest rates to tame inflation cooled demand for goods.Credit Suisse and Citigroup became the latest brokerages to bring down their 2022 year-end targets for the S&P 500 index, as U.S. equity markets bear the heat of aggressive central bank actions to tamp down inflation.

Credit Suisse also set a 2023 year-end price target for the benchmark index at 4,050 points, adding that 2023 would be a “year of weak, non-recessionary growth and falling inflation.”Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 4.49-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.43-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded no new 52-week highs and 23 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 37 new highs and 177 new lows.

Gold Price Today, 22 Sep 2022: Gold falls on strong dollar after US Fed’s rate hike, MCX support at 48800

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Gold Price Today, Gold Price Outlook, Gold Price Forecast: Gold rate and silver rate were trading weak in India on Thursday, on the back of strength in US Dollar. On Multi Commodity Exchange, gold October futures were trading flat to negative at Rs 49,439 per 10 gram, as against the previous close of Rs 49,443. Silver December futures were ruling Rs 96 or 0.2 per cent down at Rs 57,202 per kg on MCX. Globally, yellow metal prices fell 1% as the dollar rose sharply after the US Federal Reserve increased interest rates by another 75 basis points and flagged more hikes, according to Reuters. Spot gold dropped 1% to $1,656.97 per ounce, and U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,667.30.

Navneet Damani, Sr. Vice President – Commodity & Currency Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst — Commodities, HDFC Securities

Gold prices traded lower on Thursday with COMEX Spot gold prices were trading 0.87% down near $1660 in the morning trade. MCX Gold October futures opened lower near Rs. 49330 per 10 gram following weak global cues. Gold prices decline post US FOMC rate decision and stronger dollar. The US FED hiked key interest rates by 75 bps, in line with market expectations. However, the more hawkish comments from Fed chair pushed dollar index higher denting demand for gold. We expect gold prices to trade sideways to down for the day with COMEX Spot gold support at $1640 and resistance at $1676 per ounce. MCX Gold October support lies at Rs. 48800 and resistance at Rs. 49500 per 10 gram.

Also read: Rupee hits lifetime low on strong dollar, risk aversion in equities after another US Fed jumbo rate hike

Ravindra Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP- Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

COMEX gold trades modestly lower near $1668/oz weighed down by firmness in the US dollar post Fed decision. The US dollar index jumped to a fresh 2002 high as the US central bank projected the possibility of another 0.75% hike this year and no cut in interest rate until 2024. The US dollar is also supported by safe haven buying and no major change in monetary policy stance of other central banks. The persistent strength in the US dollar may continue to weigh on gold however Fed’s move was well expected so market reaction may subside.

Abhishek Chauhan, VP — Commodities & Currencies, Mandot Securities

US interest rate hike and hawkish message from the Federal Reserve boosted the dollar and weighed heavily on metal markets. Dollar index made a high of 111.445(+1.107) Metal Prices witnessed some selling pressure pre and post FED decision. Gold has support at $1660-1650, while resistance is placed at $1690-1700.Silver at COMEX has support at $19.00-19.10, while resistance is at $19.90-20.00. In rupee terms gold at MCX has support at Rs 49050-48930, while resistance is at Rs 49,600-49,660. Silver has support at Rs 56100-56300, while resistance is at Rs 57600–57800.

Also read: Nifty must hold 17667 for upmove towards 18000; buy these stocks to pocket short-term gains

(The views in this story are expressed by the respective experts of the research and brokerage firm. Financial Express Online does not bear any responsibility for their advice. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)

If Nifty holds above 14,900, it may touch 15,200, Bank Nifty to remain in positive range; TCS, Airtel in focus

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By Rajesh Palviya

Nifty started the week on negative note however buying momentum throughout the week recovered some of the earlier losses to close in positive terrain. Nifty closed at 14823 with a gain of 192 points on a weekly basis. On the weekly chart index has formed a bullish candle and remained restricted within previous week’s High-Low range indicating lack of strength on either side. Since past couple of months index is consolidating within broad range of 15000- 14200 levels representing sideways trend.

The weekly strength indicator RSI is moving downwards and is quoting below its reference line indicating negative bias. However momentum oscillator Stochastic has turned positive from the oversold zone indicating a possible consolidation or an up-move in the near term

Nifty derivative outlook

Nifty in current expiry has seen Short build up with a price cut of -0.42% and OI addition of 20 lac shares increasing from 102.38 Lac share to 122.41 Lac shares , while in Banknifty also there is Short build up with price cut of -2.27% & OI addition of 1.33 lac shares increasing from 13.97 Lac to 15.31 Lac shares. The sentiment indicator PC Ratio is currently trading at 1.33 well above the median line but still in a comfortable zone indicating positive bias. In Nifty the highest OI on the CALL side in the weekly expiry scheduled 12th May is at 15,000 -15,200 & 15,500 strike, with 15,200 & 15,400 acting as a strong resistance wherein there has been writing of 11.34Lac shares & 8.44 Lac shares respectively. The highest OI on the PUT side is at 14,500 -14,600 & 14,800 strike, with 14,500 & 14,600 acting as a strong support provided Nifty closes & sustains below 14,800 as there has been of writing of 17.83Lac shares in the said strike clearly indicating a strong support level.

Bank Nifty outlook

Bank Nifty started the week with a downward gap however short covering along with buying support at lower levels recovered some of the earlier losses. Bank Nifty closed at 32905 with a gain of 123 points on a weekly basis. On the weekly chart the index has formed a small Bullish candle with shadows on either side indicating indecisiveness amongst participants regarding the direction. The index is moving in a Lower Top and Lower Bottom formation on the daily chart indicating negative bias.

The chart pattern suggests that if Bank Nifty crosses and sustains above 33500 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 34000-34300 levels. However, if the index breaks below 32500 level it would witness selling which would take the index towards 32000-31500. Bank Nifty is now well placed above its 20 SMA indicating positive bias in the short term. Bank Nifty continues to remain in an uptrend in the medium term, so buying on dips continues to be our preferred strategy. For the week, we expect Bank Nifty to trade in the range of 34500-32500 with a positive bias.

The weekly strength indicator RSI is moving downwards and is quoting below its reference line indicating negative bias. However momentum oscillator Stochastic has turned positive from the oversold zone indicating a possible consolidation or an up-move in the near term

The trend deciding level for the day is 32980 If BANKNIFTY trades above this level then we may witness a further rally up to 33185-33465-33675 levels. However, if BANKNIFTY trades below 32980 levels then we may see some profit booking initiating in the market, it may correct up to 32700-32490-32210 levels.

Bank Nifty derivative outlook

BankNifty is having highest OI on the CALL side in the weekly expiry at 33,000 -33,500 & 34,000 strike, with 34,000 acting as a strong resistance wherein there has been writing of 4.89Lac shares, while on the PUT side highest OI is at 32,000 & 31,000 strike, with 33,000 acting as a pivotal level for this weekly expiry as there has been addition of 4.66Lac shares on CALL side & 4 Lac addition on PUT side suggesting that any sustain move on either side of this level will decide the trend in Banknifty. IndiaVix is currently at 20.82 % and has been in downward trajectory from its recent high of 24.54% suggesting confidence and stability in current market trend and further descend from these levels will augment for uptrend in market.

Sector and stocks in focus this week

We expect Pharma, Healthcare, IT, Metal and Oil & Gas sectors to do well in the near term . One can focus on stocks like Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Lupin, JSW Steel, MOIL, TCS, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, Adani Ports, CESC for near term bullish trend.

(Rajesh Palviya is the Deputy Vice President – Research (Head Technical & Derivatives) at Axis Securities Limited. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

Gold Price Today, 19 Sep’22: Gold falls despite positive global cues; US FOMC eyed, check support, resistance

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Gold Price Today, Gold Price Outlook, Gold Price Forecast: Gold prices in India were trading lower on Monday, even as yellow metal prices gained globally. On Multi Commodity Exchange, gold October futures were ruling Rs 140 or 0.3 per cent at Rs 49,240 per 10 gram, as against the previous close of Rs 49,380. Silver December futures were trading at Rs 56,841 per kg, up 121 or Rs 0.21 per cent. Globally, yellow metal prices edged higher supported by a weaker dollar, as investors assessed some risk of aggressive rate hikes expected this week by major central banks especially the U.S. Federal Reserve to tame inflation, according to Reuters. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,677.89 per ounce, and U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% at $1,686.50.

Also read: Petrol, Diesel Price Today, 19 Sep 2022: Fuel cost unchanged; check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, other cities

Gold gained some momentum after a fall in previous week hovering around the key level of $1680, amidst a steady dollar, as investors assessed some risk of aggressive rate hikes expected this week by major central banks especially the U.S. Federal Reserve to tame inflation. Touching the highs of above 110 level, dollar index retraced by 0.2%; whereas U.S. Yields were steady near the three month highs amidst higher interest expectations. U.S. inflation data reported last week increased the market expectations for an aggressive rate hike by the Fed in the Sept. meeting scheduled this week. There is an 80% probability of a 75bps rate hike according to the CME Fed watch tool. Physical gold demand picked up in India as domestic prices fell ahead of key festivals, while premiums in China climbed further as its currency weakened. Speculators switched to net short position of 10,132 contracts in week to Sept. 13 in COMEX gold, while trimmed net short position in COMEX silver, the U.S. CFTC said on Friday. Broader trend on COMEX could be in the range of $1645-1690 and on domestic front prices could hover in the range of Rs 48,950-49,700.

Also read: Nifty may slip below 17400, resistance at 17777; buy these two stocks to pocket short-term gains

Ravindra Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP- Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

COMEX gold trades marginally lower near $1680/oz as the US dollar and bond yields continue to hold on to recent gains amid positioning for Fed’s rate hike decision this week. Also weighing on price is weaker investor interest and general pressure on commodities. Supporting price is global growth worries and geopolitical tensions relating to Taiwan. Gold has managed to recover from April 2020 lows set last week as Fed’s rate hike has been largely factored in; however price may remain under pressure ahead of the meeting.

Rahul Kalantri, VP — Commodities, Mehta Equities

Gold and silver prices are likely to remain volatile ahead of the Fed policy meeting and fear of global recession, as the Fed is widely expected to hike rates by 75 basis points with traders also pricing in the possibility of a 100 basis point hike. Gold has support at $1662-1650, while resistance is at $1686-1798. Silver has support at $19.18-18.95, while resistance is at $19.62-19.85. In INR terms gold has support at Rs 49,020-48810, while resistance is at Rs 49,480, 49,640. Silver has support at Rs 55,750-55,240, while resistance is at Rs 57,180–57,510.

(The views in this story are expressed by the respective experts of the research and brokerage firm. Financial Express Online does not bear any responsibility for their advice. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)

Wall Street extends losses, US stocks tumble amid Fed tightening jitters, economic rumblings

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Wall Street ended sharply lower on Thursday, extending its losses in late afternoon trading as a raft of economic data failed to alter the expected course of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve amid growing warnings of global recession. The sell-off gathered momentum toward the end of the session, with market leaders including Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc hitting the tech-laden Nasdaq hardest. After the bell, FedEx Corp tumbled 14.5% after the package delivery company said its fiscal first-quarter results were hit by global volume softness and it withdrew its financial forecast, saying it expected further deterioration of business conditions.

FedEx’s warning sent shares of rival United Parcel Service down 5.7% in extended trade. Earlier, in Thursday’s trading session, the benchmark S&P 500 closed a hair above 3,900, seen by many analysts as a key technical support level that has been tested several times over the past two weeks. Interest rate-sensitive banks helped soften the blue-chip Dow’s decline. “It’s been a difficult year and investors are wary,” said Matthew Keator, managing partner in the Keator Group, a wealth management firm in Lenox, Massachusetts. “Until something changes the tie’s going to go the runner and that’s been the bear.”

That scale tipped further to the bear side after the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of an impending global economic slowdown. A mixed bag of economic data, led by better-than-expected retail sales, cemented the likelihood of another 75 basis-point interest rate hike from the Fed at the conclusion of next week’s monetary policy meeting, as uncertainties simmered over where the central bank will go from there.

“The question is what’s going to happen in November?” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “If the Fed really wants to handle it properly, it will be 50 basis-point drop in November, a 25 basis-point cut in December, and then they’ll reassess.” While the retail print surprised to the upside, declining jobless claims reaffirmed the labor market’s strength, and a drop in import prices supported the past-peak inflation narrative. But a surprise drop in industrial production and a contraction of Atlantic region manufacturing provided fodder for economic pessimists.

None of the data appeared to change the calculus regarding Fed expectations. Financial markets have now fully priced in an interest rate increase of at least 75 basis points next Wednesday, with a one-in-five chance of a super-sized, 100-basis-point hike, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. U.S. railroads remained open after the Biden administration helped broker a tentative deal with unions to avert a strike, thereby avoiding a rail shutdown which would add to supply-chain pressures at the core of hot inflation. Shares of railroad operators Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern outperformed the broader market.

Adobe Inc tumbled after the company said it would buy Figma in a deal valued at about $20 billion. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 173.27 points, or 0.56%, to 30,961.82, the S&P 500 lost 44.66 points, or 1.13%, to 3,901.35 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 167.32 points, or 1.43%, to 11,552.36. Nine the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 ended the session in negative territory. Energy shares showed the largest percentage drop as the tentative rail agreement and demand concerns sent crude prices tumbling. Healthcare posted the biggest advance with an assist from health insurer Humana Inc, whose 8.4% surge following its strong earnings forecast made it the top gainer in the S&P 500.

Also Read: Will bulls take a backseat as bears drag Nifty fall below 17800? 5 things to know before market opening bell

Adobe Inc was the S&P 500’s biggest percentage loser, tumbling 16.8% after the company said it would buy Figma in a cash-and-stock deal that valued the online design startup at about $20 billion. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.79-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.35-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted no new 52-week highs and 21 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 16 new highs and 206 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.11 billion shares, compared with the 10.35 billion average over the last 20 trading days.

Significance of asset diversification and risk profiling in the rapidly changing investment culture

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By Deepak Singh

Information-driven smart investing has become a buzzword in today’s technology-led globalised world as all investors want to earn risk-free returns without making too much of an effort. A couple of decades ago, earning risk-free returns sounded impossible, but today information technology (IT) has made it possible. IT has brought the entire world on fingertips which helped you understand the happenings around the world before making smart decisions. Understanding stock or sector-specific developments along with allied businesses may, therefore, have a direct or indirect bearing on your profit earning.

Over the last few decades, creating awareness through continuous educational content has increased investors’ confidence towards the stock market which is evident from a sharp increase in new enrolments. Markets regulator Sebi reported 2.2 times increase in new Demat account holders in the post-pandemic era.

Also Read: Investment lessons to learn from Lord Ganesh: Here’s how to build a robust investment portfolio

Sebi data showed the total number of Demat account holders were at 35.9 million, an increase of 3.9 million in the financial year 2018-19. During the financial year 2019-20, 5 million new accounts were added which took the tally to 40.9 million, followed by 14.2 million in FY 2020-21 to 55.1 million. In the years 2021-22, 34.6 million new accounts were opened taking the total tally to 89.7 million accounts. In Aug’22, total Demat accounts crossed the 100 million mark.

The AUM of the Indian MF Industry has grown from ₹ 7.30 trillion as on July 31, 2012, to ₹37.75 trillion as on July 31, 2022 more than 5 fold increase in a span of 10 years. The total number of accounts (or folios) as on July 31, 2022, stood at 13.56 crore (135.6 million).

Changing investment culture

There has been a complete transformation in the investment climate over the last few decades. In the fast growing social media era, individuals have started sharing information on every possible platform which gets transmitted in seconds to the entire world whether relevant investors or others.

Investors have now realised the lacunae of the social media platforms and started checking facts about the company and the sector, along with other allied businesses before taking final investment decisions. Since the regulator has made sharing of price sensitive information mandatory, smart decision making has become easier now than ever before when social media was not evolved. Hence, you must know your portfolio before making a financial planning decision.

Often decision-making based on public advice does not yield desired results. Hence, self-decision making comes to play a pivotal role. In fact, investors’ behaviour is changing with each passing day which is boosting confidence with understanding the underlying value of companies or the sector and then making choices, instead of directly vouching for a tip given via social media.

Plethora of opportunities

Globalisation has opened an ocean of opportunities for investors of which equities, indices, commodities, mutual funds, bonds, post office and bank deposits, and assets-linked investment schemes have become popular. Smart investors understand the instrument and assess the risk associated with them, explore alternative options, and compare returns before making a final decision, instead of jumping the bandwagon directly.

Asset diversification and risk profiling

In order to safeguard the investment and harvest maximum returns, you require to build a diversified portfolio in a proportion that suits your needs. A diversified portfolio distributes the asset-specific risk and helps you prepare to deal with it. In investment parlance, an underperformance of some stocks or asset classes due to any domestic or international issues always yields a surge in other ones. Thus, you can not only compensate the potential loss in one asset class with other ones, but also earn higher returns even in rough waters from a diversified portfolio. Hence, portfolio diversification helps you minimise the potential of loss and increase earnings in all market eventualities. Thus, portfolio diversification is an easy way to wealth creation by increasing your returns over a period of time.

Also Read: MCX Gold outguns Comex on weak Indian Rupee, yellow metal may trade sideways; buy on dips for gains

Conclusion

Earlier, there was a huge stigma around equity markets which prompted many investors to stay away from the risks and stick to the post office and fixed deposit schemes. These instruments eroded your capital post adjusting to the inflation. The perception, however, of not having exposure has changed now after a huge volume of content pushed on investor education. Now, investors are believing in a long term profit with risk profiling and a diversified investment portfolio.

(Deepak Singh is the Chief Business Officer at Reliance Securities. The views expressed in the article are of the author and do not reflect the official position or policy of FinancialExpress.com.)

Indian rupee likely to trade in 78.70-80.10 range against US Dollar amid global uncertainties

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By Dilip Parmar

The rupee could start the day on a positive note amid foreign fund inflows, risk-on sentiments and lower crude oil prices. Risk sentiment was bolstered by developments in Europe, where Ukraine was making progress in its counteroffensive against Russia. While investors now appear comfortable with the prospect of a 75-basis point interest rate rise by the Federal Reserve.

Also read: Petrol, Diesel Price Today, 13 Sep 2022: Fuel cost steady; Check rates in Delhi, Noida, Mumbai, other cities

Foreign institutions have bought $8.08 billion worth of equities in the last three months while the rupee is down by 0.69% following broad-based strength in the dollar index. Spot USDINR has been finding resistance around 80 following the central bank’s aggressive intervention while pullback in the dollar index and foreign fund inflows pushing the pair lower. Looking at the recent high-frequency data and global uncertainties, the pair is expected to trade within the range of 78.70 to 80.10.

The dollar’s pullback in recent days is prompting speculation about whether the currency’s march higher is coming to an end. With the Federal Reserve set to continue its tightening cycle at next week’s policy meeting, Wall Street is expressing growing optimism that the current inflationary dust-up will soon settle down. However, it is still in the advanced stage to say so as economic data and fear of recession will support the dollar bulls. 

Also read: MCX Crude oil September futures may trade at Rs 6500-7250/bbl this week; OPEC cuts output, US CPI focus

(Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities, Views expressed are the author’s own.)

Equity investors poorer by Rs 4.90 lakh cr as Sensex tumbles nearly 2 pc

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Investors’ wealth eroded by over Rs 4.90 lakh crore on Friday amid a sharp fall in equities.

The 30-share BSE Sensex tanked 1,020.80 points or 1.73 per cent to settle at 58,098.92. During the day, it tumbled 1,137.77 points or 1.92 per cent to 57,981.95.

This is the third day of decline for the equity market and the BSE benchmark has fallen by 1,620.82 points or 2.71 per cent during this time.

In three days, investors wealth has eroded by Rs 6,77,646.74 crore.

“With the latest round of interest rate tinkering by the US central bank, investors have turned risk averse and are dumping shares at will. Traders are also worried about the escalation in Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is prompting them to exit equities and park funds in safe haven dollar assets,” said Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President – Technical Research, Kotak Securities Ltd.

Also Read: US Stocks: Futures slide more than 1% on growth concerns

Among the 30-share Sensex pack, Power Grid slumped 7.93 per cent. The other major laggards were Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, NTPC, HDFC and IndusInd Bank.

Sun Pharma, Tata Steel and ITC were the only gainers.

In the broader market, the BSE midcap gauge declined 2.28 per cent and smallcap went lower by 1.92 per cent.

All the BSE sectoral indices ended in the red, with utilities tumbling 3.48 per cent, power by 3.40 per cent, realty (2.97 per cent), financial services (2.56 per cent), telecommunication (2.17 per cent), capital goods (2.06 per cent) and consumer discretionary (1.82 per cent).

“Indian equity markets witnessed a sharp fall on weekend due to weak global cues. We were outperforming but the level of 112 in the dollar index and the level of 82 in USD INR spooked the market sentiments. FIIs have started selling again in the Indian equity market therefore we are seeing selling pressure in large-cap stocks,” Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.

Elsewhere in Asia, markets in Seoul, Tokyo, Shanghai and Hong Kong ended lower.

European bourses were trading in the red in mid-session deals. The US markets ended in the negative territory on Thursday.

Sanjiv Bhasin’s top trading ideas for next quarter: Bet on select IT, bank stocks as yields rise | INTERVIEW

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Indian share market benchmarks BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 have tumbled over 7 per cent from the all-time highs touched in mid-February 2021. Markets have been reeling under pressure due to rising US 10-year bond yields. Sanjiv Bhasin, Director, IIFL Securities Ltd, told Surbhi Jain of Financial Express Online in an interview that higher yields will help banks to lead the gainers pack, while technology stocks on Nasdaq will witness profit booking. He said that the Nifty 50 index may find support around 14,300-14,350 amid volatility, while it will face resistance at the 15,200 level. Sanjiv Bhasin shared a few trading ideas for the coming first quarter of the next financial year. Here are edited excerpts from the interview:

1. Amid current market scenario, what are your support and resistance levels for Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty in the near to medium term?

2. Spike in US bond yields spooked investor sentiment. What should be investors’ strategy? Should they use it as an opportunity, be cautious or wait for the further downside?

There are inflationary expectations that have seen bond yields spiked in the US. Also, the large US$1.9 trillion stimulus will see huge borrowing by the Federal Reserve. This is to be taken with a pinch of salt as short term there can be the repatriation of risk on money back in the US. But in the medium-term, it indicates the growth momentum is very strong which shows US banks come out of 3 years of low yields and now will reap the benefits of higher yields which will see banks lead the gainers while technology stocks on the Nasdaq see profit booking. Emerging markets have already seen profit booking but financials will see huge outperformance as higher yields will see more margins with this being a great opportunity to diversify into banks and NBFCs from select IT and digital plays.

3. What are your top trading ideas for the April-June quarter of new fiscal?

The top trading ideas for the first quarter of the new fiscal year are State Bank of India (SBI), ICICI Bank, Godrej Properties Ltd, HCL Technologies, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and Bandhan Bank.

4. What should investors do with PSU stocks on divestment hope?

PSU stocks are a great play, as after four years of non-performance now look set to outperform in 2021. The top PSU stock picks are BHEL (Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd), BEML Ltd, Container Corporation of India Ltd (CONCOR), NBCC (India) Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL).

5. Besides, grey market premium, people look at IPO subscription status, is it enough to ascertain listing gains?

This has been the recent elephant in the room with a beeline to buy on listing for quick returns, with most having burnt their fingers. Returns disappear as fast as they came with select new listings seeing too much froth–Be watchful.

Will bears drag Nifty to 17150 or bulls stage a comeback? 5 things to know before market opening bell

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Indian equity markets are likely to extend losses on Monday as SGX Nifty was in red ahead of the session, hinting at a negative start for domestic benchmark indices NSE Nifty 50, and BSE Sensex. Global cues are expected to dominate this week, but RBI policy and September F&O expiry will lead to volatility in markets, according to analysts. “Nifty fell sharply for the second consecutive week (down 1.16%), breaking some key technical levels on the way. 17166 is the next support for the Nifty, post which a sharper fall could ensue. 17490 could be the resistance for the Nifty in the near term,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.

Also Read: Harsha Engineers, Britannia, Embassy REIT, Coal India, BPCL, State Bank of India stocks in focus

Nifty technical view: “On the technical front, the Nifty formed a bearish candle on a daily chart as well as trading below 21 DMA which adds bearishness to the prices. Nifty has given a breakdown of the horizontal line and given closing below the same which adds bearishness to the prices. On the OI Data, On the call side, the highest was witnessed at 17600 while on the put side was at 17000 level. The daily momentum indicator MACD was trading with a negative crossover which points out the weakness in the counter,” said Palak Kothari, Senior Technical Analyst, Choice Broking.

Nifty, Bank Nifty levels to watch for: “The support for nifty has shifted around 17150 levels while on the upside 17700 may act as an immediate hurdle. On the other hand, Bank nifty has support at 39000 levels while resistance at 40800 levels. Overall, the Nifty is looking weak on charts that can test the 17150 level in the upcoming week closing above 17700 can show an upside rally. Selling on rising is advisable for the upcoming session,” Kothari added.

IPO Watch: Harsha Engineers shares will debut on stock exchanges on Monday. Ahead of the listing, Harsha Engineers shares commanded a grey market premium of Rs 170. The Rs 755-crore IPO was bought 74.7 times by participants. Meanwhile, Isolation Energy, and Concord Control Systems companies set to launch their initial public offering IPO this week. Post IPO issue, the company’s equity shares are proposed to list on BSE’s SME platform. The public offer will be available only on BSE for subscription.

Also Read: Rupee to depreciate on strong dollar; falling crude prices may cap downside, USDINR to trade in this range

Stocks under F&O ban on NSE: The National Stock Exchange has added Vodafone Idea and Zee Entertainment Enterprises to its F&O ban list, taking the total stocks in the F&O ban list to six for September 26 (Monday). Ambuja Cements, Can Fin Homes, Delta Corp, and Punjab National Bank remained under the ban list. Securities thus banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts have crossed 95 per cent of the market-wide position limit.