Category: 阿拉爱上海

Inflation remains higher, tightening cycle may last longer than expected; check investment strategy

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By Manish Jain

In the last two months, the Nifty has rallied around 17% and that seems to have alleviated almost all the concerns that the markets had. Inflation, Rural demand, rate hike, slowing earnings growth and commodity prices have all been put behind. From being all blue, we have very quickly gone to all roses. However, the hard truth is that in reality the Nifty is nearly 1.5% up on a CYTD22 basis. This essentially means that all that we have done in the last couple of months is to regain the losses for January – June ’22. A large part of this rally, albeit with improved fundamentals, has been driven by liquidity. The FPIs have come back and they have come back like never before and this, we believe, has been one of the major reasons for the resurgence.

The second reason has been the strong foreign policy stand taken by our government. The swapping of Middle-eastern crude with more inexpensive Russian crude has been instrumental in keeping inflation in control and also saving precious US Dollars. The third thing that stands out is how India has been completely decoupled in the whole global recession scenario. The US & EU slowing down has actually had a bit of silver lining. This has pushed the global crude and commodity prices and also helped bring the FII flow back into the country. Last, but not least, The Indian central bank – RBI, has played a key role in managing the economy. At a time when most central banks have been in a reaction mode, RBI has been proactive in tightening and which has helped in containing the inflation situation.

So, the question is – have we all missed the bus? Is the rally over? What should be the strategy now? The simple answer to the above-mentioned questions is – No. The markets will likely give us more chances to build positions. There are some concerns that continue to linger on. The first one is food inflation, particularly rice, which has been a cause of concern. This could mean that inflation continues to remain higher and that in effect means that the tightening cycle can last longer than expected.

Also read: Adani buy of Holcim’s assets triggers next wave of consolidation

The second concern is the Balance of Payment which has been caused by stagnant exports and rising imports. Dare I say that the danger of getting into a 2012-14 kind of situation now seems very real? This could also be a major cause of worry for the markets. So, the moot point is that markets will give us opportunities to build positions, so rather than lamenting, be watchful and don’t miss the bus a second time coming. However, when you do buy, always remember – Buy quality, buy long term. Stay invested and create wealth. Invest in good & clean companies.

(Manish Jain is a Fund Manager at Coffee Can PMS, Ambit Asset Management. The views expressed in the article are of the author and do not reflect the official position or policy of FinancialExpress.com.)

Sensex, Nifty end in red for 7th straight day amid volatility on F&O expiry; all eyes on RBI MPC meet decision

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BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 settled lower after a volatile trade on the day of monthly F&O expiry. BSE Sensex fell 188 points or 0.3 per cent to end at 56,410, while NSE Nifty 50 slipped 40.50 points or 0.24 per cent to settle at 16818. Investors will keenly watch RBI MPC meet outcome on Friday. Index heavyweights such as Asian Paints, TCS, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, Reliance Industries, among others contributed the most to the indices’ loss. Broader markets outperformed the equity frontliners. S&P BSE MidCap index gained 0.3 per cent or 75 points to end at 24513, while S&P BSE SmallCap added 0.6 per cent or 176 points to finish at 28,047. India VIX, the volatility index, fell 3.6 per cent to end at 21.30 levels.

Also read: India a ‘bright spot’ in car sales, even as Moody’s cuts global outlook to ‘negative’; Europe weakest

Market was extremely volatile on the F&O expiry day, and traders preferred to cut their position in some of the rate-sensitives ahead of the credit policy announcement. The market is already in an oversold position and if the rate hike is above the estimate, then we could see bouts of intra-day volatility with a negative bias for some more time. Technically, despite a solid start, the benchmark Nifty failed to sustain above the 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 17000 level. In the intraday time frame, the index has formed a double top formation and conversely it is consistently taking support at 16800. As long as the index trades above 16800, the chances of a quick pullback rally is bright. Above the same, the index could retest 16950-17000 levels. However, below 16800, the index could slip till 16700-16650.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services

The initial upticks of the domestic market were short-lived due to its weak global peers and declining rupee. As the yield differential between India and the US fell to a multi-year low of 348 bps, foreign investors are still departing from the Indian market. Amid the ongoing global trend of aggressive rate hikes, markets are braced for a 50 bps increase by RBI. Investors eagerly await the central bank’s intervention to aid bank liquidity, curb currency depreciation, and provide updates on its monetary stance & GDP outlook.

Also read: RBI MPC may go with 35-50 bps repo rate hike in Sep monetary policy; may lower GDP growth forecast

Mohit Nigam, Head – PMS, Hem Securities

Investors can accumulate quality stocks in this sector for good return in the medium term. We believe investors should remain cautious ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy meeting later this week. a 50 bps interest rate hike is expected from RBI. On the technical front immediate support and resistance in Nifty 50 are 16700 and 17200 respectively. Immediate support and resistance in Bank Nifty are 37250 and 38250 respectively.

Palak Kothari, Senior Technical Analyst, Choice Broking

On the call side, the highest OI was witnessed at 17000 while on the put side was at 16500 level. The hourly momentum indicator RSI bounced from the oversold zone as well as bullish divergence has been seen which points out some upside correction can be seen. The support for Nifty has shifted around 16700 levels while on the upside 17050 may act as an immediate hurdle. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 37000 levels while resistance at 38500 levels. Overall, the Nifty is trading in the range of 16750-17050 level and either side breakout will show the direction. Pharma & media sector stocks are looking good for trade. One can add on dips.

Youngsters should work 12 hours a day: Murthy

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Indian youngsters need to work 12 hours a day to ensure India can compete with economies that have made tremendous progress in the last 25-30 years, said Infosys co-founder NR Narayana Murthy.

In an interaction with former Infosys CFO Mohandas Pai for a 3one4 Capital’s podcast, The Record, Murthy said India’s work productivity is among the lowest in the world and that in order to compete with countries like China, the country’s youngsters must put in extra hours of work as Japan and Germany did after World War II.

Speaking about youth and productivity, he said, “Somehow our youths have the habit of taking the not so desirable habits from the West and not helping the country.”

Murthy, added, “Unless we reduce corruption in the government at some level… unless we reduce the delays in our bureaucracy in taking decisions, we will not be able to compete with those countries that have made tremendous progress.”

“So, therefore, my request is that our youngsters must say, ‘This is my country. I want to work 70 hours a week.” German leaders made sure that every German worked extra hours for a certain number of years. Murthy said every government is as good as the culture of the people.

Emphasising the need for India to grow, he shared two anecdotes. Murthy said 13-14 years ago, he was on the board of a bank in London. Over a period of five years, he found that in 2007-8, when they mentioned China three times, they mentioned India once, and they mentioned US four times. Five years later, they mentioned China 30 times and they didn’t mention India even once.

And in 2023, last month, during an intellectual discourse in Europe, he heard the name of China six times while that of US three times. No one took the name of India even in 2023.

Giving another anecdotal record in 1994, he said Infosys commissioned a study on IITs and Regional Engineering Colleges and found that no student passing out from those colleges mentioned Infosys as a job destination.

Five years later, a fresh survey revealed that 18% students mentioned Infosys as their possible employer. That’s because the founders spent little but worked very hard to make sure every investor would know Infosys.

Share Market HIGHLIGHTS: Sensex tanks 1093 pts, Nifty ends at 17530 on intensive sell-off, Reliance top drag

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Share Market News Today | Sensex, Nifty, Share Prices HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic equity market benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 crashed nearly 2 per cent on Friday, on the back of sell-off in index heavyweights and weak global cues. BSE Sensex tanked 1.8 per cent or 1,093 to 58,841, while NSE Nifty 50 tanked 346 points or 2 per cent to finish trade at 17530. Index heavyweights such as Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra, UltraTech Cement, Infosys, M&M, Nestle India, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Dr Reddy’s, Asian Paints were among top index draggers. On the flip side, IndusInd Bank, and Axis bank were the only gainers. Bank Nifty index fell 1% to end at 40,777

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Share Market Today | Sensex, Nifty, BSE, NSE, Share Prices, Stock Market News

15:37 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Sensex, Nifty crash 2%

BSE Sensex tanked 1.8 per cent or 1,093 to 58,841, while NSE Nifty 50 tanked 346 points or 2 per cent to finish trade at 17530

15:19 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 D-street will focus on macro trends

Going forward, D-street will focus on the macro trends. The FIIs have been on a buying spree and have bought over Rs 12764 crore of equity so far in September. The continuous FII buying has been a major contributor to the current rally. The market will have its keen eye on this trend as any reversal could result in a temporary hiccup. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities

15:13 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Mankind Pharma files IPO papers with SEBI

Mankind Pharma Ltd, India’s fourth largest pharmaceutical company in terms of Domestic Sales and second largest in terms of sales volume for FY22, has filed its Draft Red Herring Prospectus with market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India. The company’s initial public offering comprises an offer for sale of 40,058,884 equity shares of face value Rs 1 each by selling shareholders including the promoters and existing investors.

14:42 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 RBI likely to raise repo rate by 50 bps: Morgan Stanley

The Reserve Bank of India is likely to raise repo by 50 bps, said Morgan Stanley. “We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase, however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” Morgan Stanley said.

14:40 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 CSB Bank shares up 3%

CSB Bank announced the appointment of Pralay Mondal as new Managing Director and CEO of the bank. The stock jumped 3 per cent amid market-wide sell-off.

13:46 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Indian equities may continue to outperform but can’t remain in isolation for a long time

“Indian equity markets are witnessing some selling pressure after a long period of resilience. Global cues continuously remain weak as there is a sharp surge in the dollar index and US bond yields post US inflation numbers. We may continue to outperform but we can’t remain in isolation for a long time. Global markets are looking nervous ahead of the FOMC meeting because there is talk of a 100 basis rate hike while a 75 basis rate hike was already discounted. Technically, Nifty is facing resistance at the 18100 level and it has slipped below its 20-DMA of 17700 which may lead to some more selling pressure where 17470-17400 is an immediate demand zone then 17150 is a sacrosanct support level. Banknifty is outperforming but yesterday, it ends at a day’s low after hitting a fresh all-time high which is a little disappointing. On the downside, 40900-40700 is an immediate demand zone; below this, 40270 is the next important support level.”

~Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

13:44 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 What’s dragging markets today?

“Global markets especially US and Europe are extremely bearish due to rising inflation where the US is factoring in another 100 basis points rate hike has led to a bearish sentiment in both Nifty and Sensex. Technically, Nifty now has support at 17480. A daily close below this level could lead to 17170 in the coming sessions. Major resistance is now at 17745.”

~AR Ramachandran, Co-founder & Trainer, Tips2Trades

12:56 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Harsha Engineers International IPO final day: Issue subscribed 12 times

The initial public offering (IPO) of leading precision bearing cages manufacturer Harsha Engineers International continued to attract strong response from investors. The issue has been subscribed 12 times, garnering bids for 20.07 crore equity shares against offer size of 1.68 crore shares, as of 11 am on the final day of bidding.

The maximum response was seen from non-institutional investors, putting in bids 30 times the allotted quota, followed by retail investors subscribing 10 times the portion set aside for them.

11:40 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Bank Nifty in red

Bank Nifty was down 0.3% at 41,085. The index slipped below 41000 to hit in intraday low of 40818 in morning deals.

11:35 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Godrej Properties shares price dips

Godrej Properties said it has achieved sales bookings worth Rs 1,210 crore in its two new housing projects in Mumbai. Godrej Properties, a part of business conglomerate Godrej Group, is one of the leading real estate developers in the country.

11:35 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Adani Ports share fall msrginally

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zones (APSEZ) on Thursday said its wholly-owned subsidiary HDC Bulk Terminal Ltd has signed a concession agreement with Syama Prasad Mookerjee Port Kolkata (SMPK) for the mechanization of a berth at Haldia Port.

11:33 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 IndusInd Bank gains 2% on strong outlook

IndusInd Bank shares gained 2% on strong outlook. The stocks has risen 53% in 3 months. Analysts expect that the bank’s credit growth and profitability is expected to be strong on account of revived demand in MFI and vehicle finance.

10:42 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Adani Enterprises surpasses LIC, ITC in market cap ranking

With a market cap of Rs 4.31 trillion, Adani Enterprises stood at 12th position in overall market cap ranking on the BSE.

10:41 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 UPL stock down 2%

The agrochemical company in joint venture with CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions, a Mumbai-based renewable energy company, will establish a hybrid solar-wind energy power plant in Gujarat. The joint venture will set-up and operate a hybrid captive power plant with a capacity of 28.05 MW of solar power and 33 MW of wind power.

09:20 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Sensex, Nifty open in red, fall 0.5%

BSE Sensex fell 336 points or 0.6 per cent to 59,598 points, while NSE Nifty 50 was down 0.5 per cent to 17,789

09:11 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Expect dips to 17700 in Nifty 50 to attract bargain buying,

The downside bias that was expected to prevail yesterday, managed to drag Nifty only as far as 17860 vicinity. The full extent of the bearish move could be revealed today. While we expect dips to 17700 to attract bargain buying, inability to clear 17860 on the bounce could signal extended downsides, with the first objective at 17460. Anand James – Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Financial Services

09:10 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Nifty key resistance at 18000

“Indian markets settled in negative territory for the second successive day on Thursday due to weak Asian cues. Today, the markets are likely to make negative start tracking weakness in global peers. Some pessimism may come as the World Bank said the world may be edging toward a global recession as central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates to combat persistent inflation. There will be some cautiousness as Global Rating agency Moody’s said India’s rated infrastructure firms can largely withstand further depreciation in the value of rupee against US dollar due to financial hedges and other mitigants. On the technical front, the key resistance level for Nifty50 is 18,000  and on the downside 17,650 can act as strong support. Key resistance and support levels for Bank Nifty are 41,700 and 40,800 respectively.”

~Mohit Nigam, Head – PMS, Hem Securities

09:08 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Bank Nifty continues to be strong

“The market has started showing some indications of fatigue. Globally, the major concern now is that the Fed might oversteer the economy and end up raising rates too much too fast, pushing the US economy into a sharp recession. There are talks of the terminal Fed rate rising to 4.25 percent. Sharply rising rates, rising bond yields and rising dollar are negatives for equity.”

“In this challenging environment, it would be difficult for India to sustain the decoupling from the global trend which has been a recent pattern in India. Moreover, FIIs have halted their sustained buying and have turned sellers, though this is not yet a trend. Investors may adopt a wait and watch attitude till the Fed meeting is over on 21st September. Bank Nifty continues to be strong.”

~VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services

09:07 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Nifty’s recent bullish fairy tales ends below 17701

“Equity markets are likely to extend losses in early trades Friday, mirroring the weakness in global indices as investors are gearing up for a stronger interest rate hike by the US Fed following the recently announced higher-than-expected inflation numbers. The street now widely believes that the Fed will raise rates by 75 bps in its September 21st meet, followed by a 75 bps hike in November, and mostly deliver a further 50 bps in December. Whenever the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates – emerging markets like India turn volatile as capital tends to flee to safer shores as yields rise elsewhere. Also, the negativity can be also attributed to yesterday’s provisional data which indicates that FIIs were net sellers worth Rs 1270 crores, while domestic institutional investors too were net sellers of shares worth Rs 929 crore. Technically speaking, Nifty’s recent bullish fairy tales ends below 17701 mark, while the index faces the biggest hurdle at 18115.”

~Prashanth Tapse – Research Analyst, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd

08:38 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Govt relaxes paid up capital rules for small companies

The definition of “small companies” under the Companies Act, 2013 been further revised by increasing such thresholds for paid up capital from “not exceeding Rs 2 crore” to “not exceeding Rs 4 crore” and turnover from “not exceeding Rs 20 crore” to “not exceeding Rs 40 crore”. Earlier, this was revised by increasing their thresholds for paid up capital from “not exceeding Rs 50 lakh” to “not exceeding Rs 2 crore” and turnover from “not exceeding Rs 2 crore” to “not exceeding Rs 20 crore”.

08:18 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Patanjali to announce IPO plans for five group companies

Patanjali, the FMCG brand started by Baba Ramdev, will announce its initial public offering (IPO) plans for five group companies on Friday at a press conference. The IPO plan includes Patanjali Ayurved, Patanjali Wellness and Patanjali Medicine and Patanjali Lifestyle, according to some news reports. The company said the move is to scale new heights of corporate performance.

08:12 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 IMF sees further global economic slowdown

Downside risks continue to dominate the global economic outlook and some countries are expected to slip into recession in 2023, but it is too early to say if there will be a widespread global recession, IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said on Thursday.

08:11 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 China Data Watch

August retail sales rise 5.4% YoY versus estimate of 3.3%

Industrial output rises 4.2% YoY against estimate of 3.8 percent

08:10 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Crude oil falls on demand concerns, strong dollar

Oil prices dipped in early trade on Friday, extending the week’s losses on concerns over tight supply. Brent crude futures fell 22 cents, or 0.2%, to $90.62 a barrel as at 0052 GMT after sliding 3.5% to a one-week low in the previous session.

08:00 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Will bulls take a backseat as bears drag Nifty fall below 17800? 5 things to know before market opening bell

Bulls are likely to take backseat on Friday as SGX Nifty hinted at a negative start for Indian equities. Nifty futures traded 111 points, or 0.62% lower at 17,768 on the Singapore Exchange, signaling that NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex were headed for a negative start. “We broadly remain positive on the markets and suggest buying on dips. Nifty trades with a positive bias on monthly basis but short term momentum indicators suggest some jitters. This could result in a phase of correction/consolidation. IT and select BFSI stocks remain attractive while Banking can witness some profit booking,” said Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Research- Derivatives at Kotak Securities.

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07:56 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 US stocks end in red

US stocks fell in a choppy session on Thursday after the latest batch of economic data did little to dial back expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next hawkish move. On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 173.07 points, or 0.56% to 30,962.02; the S&P 500 lost 44.69 points, or 1.13%, to 3,901.32 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 167.32 points, or 1.43%, to 11,552.36.

07:55 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 Asian markets in red

Shares in the Asia-Pacific fell on Friday as investors digest US economic data and look ahead to the release of China’s industrial production and retail sales figures for August. Japan’s Nikkei 225 0.84%, and the Topix index slipped 0.51%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.38%. South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.73%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.3% lower.

07:55 (IST) 16 Sep 2022 India Markets on Thursday

Sensex closed 412.96 points or 0.68% lower at 59,934. Nifty shed 126.40 points or 0.70%, ending at 17,877.40. Among sectors, Nifty IT was the top loser with Infosys and Tech Mahindra losing 3% each. Autos were in the fast lane as Maruti Suzuki surged 3.2%. Eicher Motors rallied 2.7% to join the Rs 1 trillion market cap club. Pharma and realty sectors took a beating too, losing over a percent.

Tamilnad Mercantile Bank IPO share listing today: Flat listing on BSE, NSE; stock debuts at Rs 510 per share

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Tamilnad Mercantile Bank’s shares saw a flat listing on the stock exchanges today amid the tepid market momentum. Shares of the company began trading on the BSE at Rs 510 apiece from the IPO price of Rs 500-525 apiece per share. At the time of listing, the company had a market capitalisation of Rs 8,075.92 crore. The company launched its Rs 831-crore initial public offering (IPO) from September 5-7, 2022. The public issue was subscribed 2.86 times over the 87 lakh shares that were on offer during the subscription period. Tamilnad Mercantile Bank had initially planned an offer for sale (OFS) by existing investors, which was later withdrawn and the bank proceeded with a fresh issue.

Also read: Bank Nifty must hold above 41250 to hit new lifetime high; buy ICICI Bank, SBI stocks on dips to pocket gains

Also read: Rupee likely to depreciate on strong dollar, elevated crude prices; USDINR pair to trade in this range

Tamilnad Mercantile Bank was incorporated on May 11, 1921 is headquartered at Thoothukudi (Tamil Nadu, India), is one of the oldest and leading old private sector banks in India, with a history of close to 100 years. The bank reported deposits of Rs 44,930 crore and advances of Rs 33,490 crore as of March 2022. As of March 2022, the private sector lender has 509 branches, of which, 106 branches are in rural, 247 in semi-urban, 80 in urban and 76 in metropolitan centres. It had a customer base of around 5.08 million as of March 2022. Of which, nearly 80 per cent comprised customers who were associated with the bank for more than five years.

Global Markets: Dollar dishes the pain as selloff rumbles on

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Investors pedalled into another cycle of selling on Thursday as the dollar tightened its stranglehold on currency markets, recession fears sapped stocks and bonds suffered more interest rate pain.

Europe’s morning was rough. The STOXX 600 share index was still down 1.3% having opened 2% lower and both the euro and the pound, hammered over the last week by UK debt concerns, were struggling again.

Gilt selling had also resumed a day after the Bank of England had dramatically intervened to try and quell the storm surround the UK government’s new spending plans.

“The market wouldn’t mind some stability, it has become a little bit unpredictable,” said Barings Investment Institute’s Chief European strategist, Agnes Belaisch.

Also Read: US Stocks: Futures fall on growing worries of economic downturn

She said investors were now seeing “incoherence” in the UK with government spending as the BoE tries to rein in inflation, while everywhere else the focus is on how high central banks are prepared to go with interest rates.

Germany’s 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark of the euro zone, jumped as high as 2.27%, as pacey numbers from North Rhine-Westphalia pointed to a double-digit inflation figure for the country as a whole shortly.

The UK 10-year gilt yield, which drives UK borrowing costs, rose 15 bps to 4.16% after falling almost 50 bps the day before due to the BoE’s sudden intervention, although the 30-year yield being targeted by the central bank did see another dip.

UK Prime Minister Liz Truss defended her new economic programme that has sent sterling to a record low this week and left the UK’s borrowing costs close to Greece’s – saying it was designed to tackle the difficult situation Britain was now in.

“We are facing difficult economic times,” Truss, who only took over as UK Prime Minister this month, said on local BBC radio. “I don’t deny this. This is a global problem. But what is absolutely right is the UK government has stepped in and acted.”

‘BIT OF A MESS’Zooming back out, it was still about the dollar which has crushed currencies virtually everywhere this year, as well as the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking with reporters in London on Wednesday, veteran Federal Reserve policymaker Charles Evans gave no indication that any of the recent FX and bond market drama would blow the U.S. central bank off its rate hike course.

“We just really need to get inflation in check,” Evans said, backing lifting the Fed’s rates – now at 3%-3.25% – to a range of 4.5%-4.75% by the end of the year or March.

Thursday’s moves saw the U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against sterling, the euro and four other peers, rise back towards its recent 20-year high again having had its worst session in 2-1/2 years on Wednesday.

Overnight, China’s yuan had fallen again too, although it stayed just off recent post-financial crisis lows, as China’s central bank said stabilising the foreign exchange market was its top priority and on reports of potential FX intervention too.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ended the day virtually flat, although Japan’s Nikkei did manage a near 1% rise.

S&P 500 futures pointed to Wall Street falling as much as 1% later with more Fed policymakers also due to speak.

The interest rates investors now get on the government’s Treasury bonds – which are considered virtually risk-free if held to maturity – now dwarf the S&P 500’s dividend yield.

Weekly jobless claims data are expected to show a modest rise, and final economic growth figures for the second quarter are also due. A second estimate of the government last month had shown the economy contracted at 0.6%, a more moderate pace than initially thought.

Recession angst combined with supply issues and the strong dollar meant oil prices see-sawed after gaining more than $3 in the prior session.

Goldman Sachs cut its 2023 oil price forecast this week, citing expectations of weaker demand and a stronger U.S. dollar, but said global supply issues reinforced its long-term view that prices could rise again.

Brent crude futures were last up at $89.82 a barrel, having dropped to $87.33 per barrel earlier, while U.S. crude futures hovered at $82.30 and gold fell 0.6% to $1,649 an ounce.

“It’s all a bit of a mess,” said ANZ economist Finn Robinson.

Global Markets: European stocks set for weekly loss as global economic outlook worsens

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European stocks fell on Friday and Wall Street was set to open lower as investors braced for a U.S. rate hike next week amid more warning signs pointing to a global economic slowdown.

The World Bank’s chief economist said on Thursday he was worried about a period of low growth and high inflation in the global economy. The International Monetary Fund said downside risks continue to dominate the economic outlook but it was too early to say if there will be a widespread global recession.

The downbeat tone continued during Asian trading, with data showing that China’s property sector had contracted further last month.

In the UK, retail sales fell more than expected, in another sign that the economy is sliding into recession as the cost-of-living crisis squeezes households’ disposable spending.

At 1032 GMT, the MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was down 0.4% on the day and set for its fourth consecutive day of losses.

Europe’s STOXX 600 was down 1%, set for a weekly decline of 2.3%. London’s FTSE 100 was up 0.2% and Germany’s DAX was down 1.5%.

Also Read: Sensex crashes 2% as bears run riot, 17450 in Nifty would be key level; check support, resistance levels

Wall Street futures were down, with S&P 500 e-minis trading near two-month lows.

“We’re now seeing data confirm that the economy is indeed slowing down,” said Axel Rudolph, market analyst at IG Group.

“I expect stocks to head back down to below their March lows. If you are in an environment where you have central banks that aggressively raise rates, historically this has always led to bear markets.”

Markets were pricing in a 75% chance of a 75-basis-point rate hike and a 25% chance of 100 bps when the Fed meets next Wednesday. The Bank of Japan and Bank of England also meet next week.

Joachim Fels, managing director and global economic advisor at PIMCO, said in a note that although he expects a “relatively shallow” recession, “it is unlikely to be followed by a V-shaped recovery because sticky inflation will prevent central banks from easing policy in a meaningful way anytime soon.”

The U.S. dollar index was up 0.1% at 109.95, still hovering near a 20-year high, and a touch lower against the yen at 143.23.

The yen could hurtle towards three-decade lows before the year-end, according to market analysts and fund managers.

The dollar’s strength pushed China’s offshore yuan past the 7-per-dollar level for the first time in nearly two years.The pound weakened to a new 37-year low against the U.S. dollar.

The euro was a touch lower at $0.9976. Germany’s two-year bond yields hit a fresh 11-year high after the European Central Bank vice president said an economic slowdown in the euro zone would not be enough to control inflation and the bank will have to keep raising interest rates.

Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond was up 6 bps on the day at 1.787% – having touched its highest since mid-June in early trading.

Oil prices edged higher, but were on track for a weekly drop amid fears of a reduction in demand.

Green Tourism India Conclave 2023: Pioneering Sustainable and Responsible Tourism

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The Green Tourism India Conclave was held on October 19, 2023, at the State Convention Centre in Shillong, the capital of Meghalaya. The conclave was organized by Indian Express Online Media. The Presenting Sponsor of the Conclave was Meghalaya Tourism in association with Incredible India. The Conclave was powered by Odisha Tourism and Arunachal Tourism.

A groundbreaking initiative of Indian Express Online Media, the event focused on the promotion of green and responsible tourism in India, with a particular emphasis on the Northeastern region and Odisha. Distinguished guests, esteemed delegates, and participants came together for a day of insightful discussions, presentations, and also a cultural performance.

The Conclave featured multiple engaging sessions, including panel discussions and presentations focusing on responsible tourism in Megahalaya, the Northeast, Odisha and beyond. Here are some highlights:

Inaugural Ceremony: The event began with an auspicious lamp lighting ceremony, symbolizing unity in the pursuit of green responsible tourism. It was followed by a welcome note from Sanjay Sindhwani, CEO of Indian Express Online Media and insightful addresses by Cyril Diengdoh, Director of Tourism, Government of Meghalaya and Managing Director of the Meghalaya Tourism Development Corporation and Bah Paul Lyngdoh, the Hon’ble Minister of Tourism, Government of Meghalaya.

Bah Paul Lyngdoh, the Hon’ble Minister of Tourism, Government of Meghalaya and the Green Tourism India Conclave’s Chief Guest called for a regional tourism policy for the Northeast. He also wished the participants the very best for the Conclave’s daylong deliberations and praised the reach of Indian Express Online Media which he said “will help reach and publicise this event widely”. The Hon’ble Minister further said, “Tourism can become a sustainable means of livelihood when we open our doors to visitors to discover this remote part of the country which has so much to offer and so much to discover.” “We are coming up with a new legislation for eco-fragile zones which will stop any construction activity in that area,” he also added.

Cyril Diengdoh, Director of Tourism, Government of Meghalaya, and Managing Director of the Meghalaya Tourism Development Corporation, said, “Responsible Tourism is at the heart of our life. In the Northeast, green tourism, responsible tourism, sustainable tourism is the only way forward.”

Sanjay Sindhwani, CEO, Indian Express Online Media, said, “How do get sustainable tourism into practice? This is the challenge all the stakeholders have to address. These conferences can throw up ideas and create deliberations, but I think the industry and the trade and consumers have to push for change.”

Adventure and Eco-Tourism: The first session, “The Great Outdoors: What Makes the Northeast the Perfect Destination for Adventure and Eco-Tourism,” featured a distinguished panel of experts who shared insights on adventure and eco-tourism in India.


Ecotourism Initiatives in Odisha: Sachin Ramchandra Jadhav, Director of Tourism, Government of Odisha, presented Odisha’s ecotourism initiatives and how they could be adapted in the Northeast. “This association of Odisha Tourism with the Northeast will pave the way to a fruitful and meaningful cooperation and coexistence and trade between Odisha and Northeast India as far as the tourism sector is concerned,” Mr Jadhav said. “Tourism is an investor-led field and the government’s role is behind the scenes,” he added.

Community Tourism and Homestays: A panel discussion on “Community Tourism and Homestays in the Northeast” explored the successes and challenges of community-based tourism in the region.


Tourism in Meghalaya: Gerald Samuel Duia, General Secretary of the Tour Operators Association of Meghalaya, presented a case study on the challenges and opportunities in tourism in Meghalaya.

Luxury Tourism: The session titled “Luxury Tourism: Is High-Value, Low-Impact Responsible Tourism the Way Forward for the Northeast?” emphasized the importance of sustainable luxury travel.


The Road Ahead: The final session, “Tourism in the Northeast: Opportunities, Challenges, Solutions, and the Road Ahead,” provided valuable insights from experts in the field.

The conclave featured engaging Q&A sessions with the audience, providing an opportunity for participants to interact with the panellists and gain deeper insights into responsible tourism practices.

In closing, Mukesh Singh, Senior Vice President and Revenue Head, Indian Express Online Media, expressed gratitude to all participants and emphasized the importance of continued collaboration in promoting sustainable and responsible tourism.

The Green Tourism India Conclave 2023 is sure to leave a lasting impact, fostering a commitment to responsible tourism practices in India, particularly in the vibrant and ecologically diverse Northeastern region.

Green Tourism India Conclave Microsite Link: https://www.financialexpress.com/events/green-tourism-india-conclave#section-agenda

Stocks bleed for sixth day in a row; Rs 3.17 trn wealth wiped out in a day

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Equities took another tumble on Thursday, making it the sixth straight session of a sell-off as investors rushed for the exit. While prices of crude oil have eased and Brent was quoting at sub-$90/barrel, apprehensions that the West Asia conflict could be a prolonged one saw investors take money off the table. Elevated US Treasury yields, the possibility that the US Federal Reserve could yet hike interest rates and a subdued start to the earnings season, added to investors’ fears.

The Sensex plunged 900.91 points to close at 63,148.15. With investor wealth of Rs 3.17 trillion wiped out on Thursday alone, the total erosion of wealth over the last six sessions was a whopping Rs 17.8 trillion. Since the highs of September 15, the Sensex has given up close to 7%.The broader Nifty plummeted 284 points to close at 18,857.25, falling below the psychological 19,000-mark for the first time since June 30. The Nifty has now lost 6.6% since its September peak.

Nilesh Shah, MD and CEO of Kotak MF, said the geopolitical situation, ‘higher for longer’ US rates and elevated energy prices have created uncertainty. “Our valuation was at a premium to peers. Most investors are sitting on profits in India unlike other markets,” Shah said, adding there had been a barrage of bad news over the last few weeks.

He pointed out that in recent months, the market had seen poor-quality stocks outperforming quality. “There was some excess in micro-caps and mini-caps, which needed a correction.”

According to strategists at HSBC Global Research, a sharp rise in US bond yield, in part due to the Fed’s more hawkish policy outlook on better-than-expected economic data, as well as a rise in term premium, is negative for foreign fund flows into emerging markets. “And India is not isolated from this risk despite its strong macro outlook,” they said in a note.

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs), who had sold a net $2.2 billion worth of stocks in September, have sold a net $1.3 billion in October till Wednesday. Provisional data from the exchanges showed that on Thursday, FPIs sold to the tune of Rs 7,702 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) pumped in a net Rs 6,558 crore. DIIs had bought stocks to the tune of Rs 19,713 crore till Wednesday.

The selling has not been restricted to the larger stocks, but has been broad-based as seen in the advance-decline ratio below 0.7 in five out of the last six sessions.

The BSE MidCap and SmallCap indices slumped 2.2% and 2.9%, respectively, on Thursday, having shed a cumulative 5.9% and 6.2%, respectively, over the past six sessions.

Corporate earnings for the September quarter have been just about in-line with virtually no surprises and a few disappointments. While profits have risen, much of the earnings growth has come from cost-cutting measures and savings, with the increase in the top line very subdued. While the IT pack turned in decent numbers, the guidance was muted suggesting companies have little visibility on revenues.

Charts signal strong support for these two stocks; recent market correction may have bottomed out

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By Subash Gangadharan

Markets have corrected sharply in the last one week. A sharp bounce back in the last two sessions has however curbed the losses. Broad market indices like the BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap indices too have bounced back from close to their 50-day SMAs indicating a possibility that the short term correction is over and markets are ready to resume their intermediate uptrend.The Nifty, however, remains in a short term downtrend. This would reverse with a close above the recent highs of 13778. Immediate supports to watch for resumption of weakness are at 13432.With the intermediate uptrend still intact, we expect the recent correction to be more of a short term nature and may have possibly bottomed out with the strong price action seen in the last two sessions. It is important that the recent lows of 13131 are not broken for the intermediate uptrend to sustain.The below picks are for the next 15-26 trading sessions

After correcting from a high of 568 touched on 16th Dec 2020, Bharat Forge found support around the 492 levels yesterday. These levels also coincide with the 50 day SMA indicating that it is a strong support.The stock rebounded strongly in the last two sessions and made a higher bottom on the 15-minute intraday chart. In the process, there has also been a moving average crossover as the 20 period MA has crossed above the 50 period MA on the 15 min intraday charts. This augurs well for the short term uptrend to continue. We, therefore, recommend a Buy between 530 and 540 with a SL at 510 and Target of 600. CMP is Rs.538.Buy State Bank of India

SBI has corrected sharply from a high of 276 in the last two weeks. The stock found support at the 248.3 levels and has made a hammer pattern on the daily charts on 22nd Dec 2020.On Friday, the stock closed above the 20 day SMA, indicating that the bulls are gaining control. Zooming into the 15 min intraday charts, we notice that the stock has moved higher in the last two trading sessions and made a higher bottom in the process. This augurs well for the bullishness to continue.We, therefore, recommend a Buy between 260 and 263 with a SL at 255 and Target of 280. CMP is Rs.262.8.

(Subash Gangadharan is a Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)