Category: 阿拉爱上海

MCX Crude oil September futures: Go long for expected target of Rs 7000/bbl; MCX prices may see correction

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By Bhavik Patel

Brent crude has breached $90 on the downside for the first time in eight months after Russia invaded Ukraine. In February when Russia invaded Ukraine, Brent was trading around $90 and then prices skyrocketed when fighting intensified. With recession fears growing and OPEC+ eager to keep prices high, the group may well be forced to make another production cut. This week OPEC+ cut its production target by 100,000 bpd, a move that was largely symbolic due to the group’s underproduction. Market took in stride the cut where prices briefly rallied but weak demand sentiment again came to the forefront as prices took a dive and Brent traded below $90.

China’s zero covid policy is one of the reasons why demand has been weak. Chinese oil import has been declining and they are putting cities under lockdown thus weakening demand from Asia’s largest crude oil buyer. Add to this the expected imminent recession in major European economies, triggered by the energy crisis and sky-high prices and the aggressive interest rate hikes from central banks, including the Fed, and the economic prospects for the world don’t look great for crude right now and that is what is being reflected in the prices. However there is hope for bulls. It’s currently anyone’s guess how the planned price cap on Russian oil will impact markets, especially if Russia follows through on its threat to stop exporting its oil to importers that will have joined that cap mechanism.

Also read: MCX Gold outguns Comex on weak Indian Rupee, yellow metal may trade sideways; buy on dips for gains

In MCX, prices still have room for further correction. Momentum oscillator RSI_14 is at 38 and historically in the last 2 years, it has bounced from levels of 33-31. So one can expect any short covering from levels of 6400-6300 levels in Sept contract. On the downside, support is around 6400-6300 levels while resistance is at 7200 levels. For next week we would recommend to wait around levels of 6400-6300 where one can go long for expected target of 6800-7000 and keep stoploss around 6200. The reason behind this is prices have already corrected but not to the point of oversold region and so once price comes around the oversold region, one can take a long position as risk/reward will be favourable. In the current scenario, further shorts will not be favourable for the risk/reward position as we have already seen steep corrections and there is room for downside. So wait for prices to come into the support zone for taking further fresh positions.

(Bhavik Patel is a commodity and currency analyst at Tradebulls Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

Rupee likely to depreciate on strong dollar, risk aversion in markets; USDINR to trade in this range

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The Indian rupee is expected to depreciate on Wednesday amid strong dollar, FII outflows, and risk-off sentiments in equity markets. The delay in Indian bond inclusion in the JP Morgan bond index is also likely to weigh on the local unit. Analysts expect USDINR pair to trade within a broad range of 81.00 and 81.80 levels on spot. In the previous session, the rupee eased off a record low as oil prices hovered near an eight-month low and risk aversion eased somewhat. The currency halted its four-day losing streak to close at 81.58, up 9 paise from the previous close.

Also Read: Share Market LIVE: Nifty, Sensex likely to open in red; RBI MPC meet starts today, rate hike decision eyed

“The Indian rupee is expected to open lower following the weak Chinese yuan and risk-off sentiments. The dollar index strengthened along with the US treasury after hawkish comments from Federal officials. The forward markets indicate USDINR could open 30 to 32 paise higher near 81.90 odd levels, which will be the new record high. On Tuesday, spot USDINR oscillated in the narrow range before closing at 81.58. The delay in Indian bond inclusion in the JP Morgan bond index pushed the pair and bond yield higher in the second half of the trading session.”

“Technically, the pair is still bullish and one can expect 82 and 82.90 if the dollar index continues to bid well while on the downside it has support at 81. The onshore yuan fell to the weakest level against the dollar since the global financial crisis in 2008, amid an incessant advance in the greenback and speculation China is toning down its support for the local currency. The currency is under pressure as the nation’s monetary policy with the US diverges further as the Federal Reserve hikes rates.”

Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives, Kotak Securities

“USDINR spot closed at 81.58, down 4 paise on a day of slight choppy trading. Rally in global equities and softness in the US Dollar Index pushed the pair lower. However, higher US yields and demand from importers kept the pair well supported near 81.30 levels Over the near term, we expect USDINR to trade within a broad range of 81.00 and 81.80 levels on spot.”

Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

“Rupee consolidated in a narrow range but broadly was weighed down after some sources suggest that India’s long wait to win inclusion in JPMorgan’s influential emerging market debt index could be pushed out into next year due to a number of issues that needs to address. News of the likely delay in the inclusion process saw the Indian rupee turn lower, while yields on the government’s benchmark bonds rose to 7.37% from the day’s low of 7.27%.”

Also Read: Petrol, Diesel Price Today, 28 Sep 2022: Fuel cost static; check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, Noida, other cities

“The BoE said that it would not hesitate to change interest rates and was monitoring markets “very closely” after the pound plunged. Dollar strengthened after data released from the US showed new home sales number rose in August as compared from the previous month. Today, volatility could remain low as no major economic data is expected t be released from the US. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 81.20 and 81.80.”

(The recommendations in this story are by the respective research analysts and brokerage firms. FinancialExpress.com does not bear any responsibility for their investment advice. Capital markets investments are subject to rules and regulations. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)

Sebi norms to hit MFs’ talent pool

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The Securities and Exchange Board of India’s (Sebi) move to bring mutual funds (MF) under the ambit of insider trading regulations may make it difficult for asset managers to attract and retain top talent.

The industry could lose out to alternative investment funds (AIF), portfolio management services (PMS), insurance and banks.

In the past, several industry veterans such as Kenneth Andrade and Sunil Singhania moved to the AIF industry. The likes of Samir Arora have set up their own PMS firms.

Also Read: Sebi tightens IPO disclosure norms

“When we go for pre-placement to any of the IIMs and I tell them that all your WhatsApp calls and conversations will be recorded, what will their reaction be? Why will they come to us,” asked a second fund official.

The Sebi board gave its nod for including trading in units of mutual funds through a separate chapter in Sebi (Prohibition of Insider Trading) Regulations 2015 on Friday. This will spell out reporting and monitoring requirements and lay out a separate code of conduct for designated persons.

“Asset management is a growing industry and exciting career option for many people. On the investment side, in particular, it offers a steep learning curve and good pay. So, it’s not that people will not come to the industry but the attractiveness will certainly go down,” said a third fund official.

The insider trading norms along with the diktat on skin in the game, which mandates that 20% of the take-home salary needs to be invested in schemes of one’s own fund house, could be a dampener. India is the only market in the world that mandates fund managers and other fund officials to invest in their own fund’s schemes, which has to be locked in for a period of three years.

In 2020, Sebi had asked fund executives involved in the funds investments to conduct all communication through recorded modes and channels. The intent was to curb illegal trades but had led to privacy concerns.

“Now, with the insider trading regulations coming into the picture, it will be tricky to invest in your own funds as the redemptions will be subject to clearance basis the new norms,” said the third official quoted above.

“The regulator can always come back and question my decision to redeem. Eventually the tribunal or a higher court may acquit me but I will be on public trial till then. The new norms will saddle honest people with unnecessary compliance burden instead of creating a situation where the crooks are worried,” said the first official, adding that the regulator should be granted powers such as wire-tapping to zero-in on the real culprits.

Some experts, however, believe that the new insider trading norms will not be an obstacle in attracting talent. “Fund managers move from mutual funds to PMS and AIF for better pay and profit-sharing deals. That has been happening for many years now and will continue to happen,” said Vicky Mehta, an independent analyst tracking MFs.

That said, he believes there is an army of analysts in the country who aspire to be fund managers. This talent pool will continue to be available to MFs despite regulations pertaining to insider trading and skin in the game. “At best, the mid-sized or small fund houses may find it a little more difficult in paying top talent,” said Mehta.

Dhaval Kapadia, director & portfolio specialist, Morningstar Investment Advisers India, concurs. “With the financialisation of savings gaining ground, the MF industry is expected to clock a good growth rate. AIF and PMS offer greater flexibility in terms of portfolio construction and products but are coming under greater regulatory scrutiny. And there is nothing to say that AIF will not be brought under the ambit of insider trading regulations going forward,” he said.Average assets under management for the industry as of August 31, 2022 stood at `39.53 trillion, up 54% in the last three years.

Asian markets weaken as IMF, World Bank flag recession risks

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Asian markets were weaker on Friday as investors braced for a U.S. rate hike next week amid growing concerns of a global recession following warnings from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.3% on Friday, after U.S. stocks ended the previous session with mild losses. The index is down 4.1% so far this month.

Australian shares were down 0.94% on Friday, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index slipped 1.2%.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 1.1% while China’s CSI300 Index was 0.86% lower. The weaker session followed broad declines across the major U.S equities markets.

Also read| Will bulls take a backseat as bears drag Nifty fall below 17800? 5 things to know before market opening bell

The IMF in July revised down global growth to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023. It will release a new outlook next month.In comparison, the World Bank said the world could be edging towards a global recession in 2023 as central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates to combat persistent inflation.

The world’s three largest economies – the United States, China, and the euro zone – have been slowing sharply, and even a “moderate hit to the global economy over the next year could tip it into recession,”, it said. Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist, said on Thursday he was concerned about “generalized stagflation,” a period of low growth and high inflation, in the global economy, noting the bank had pared back forecasts for a majority of countries.

Also read| Adani Ports, PVR, Tata Power, UPL, Reliance, BPCL, Ami Lifesciences stocks in focus on 16 September 2022

In Asian trade, the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes stood at 3.4509% compared with its U.S. close of 3.459% on Thursday.The two-year yield, which rises with traders’ expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 3.871% compared with a U.S. close of 3.873%.Two-year Treasury yields hit a new 15-year high after mixed U.S retail sales and jobless claims data, which analysts said reinforced the case for aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Markets are currently fully pricing in a 75 basis point rate hike next week, economists said.”Equities and other risk-sensitive markets struggle as it becomes clear that US inflation pressures are well embedded and that risks to the fed funds rate lie to the upside,” ANZ economists said on Friday.

The dollar dropped 0.4% against the yen to 142.95. The euro was up 0.1% on the day at $1.0006, having lost 0.51% in a month, while the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, was up at 109.59.U.S. crude ticked up 0.14% to $85.22 a barrel. Brent crude rose to $90.98 per barrel. Gold was slightly lower. Spot gold was traded at $1662.49 per ounce.

Stock market rally over, now focus on fundamentals, FIIs might continue to be net buyers | INTERVIEW

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With the record-breaking rally on Dalal Street spreading to several months now, it could have now reached an inflexion point. Valuations of most markets around the globe are higher than their long-term averages which hint at the rally being more or less done for now, said Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director, Ladderup Wealth Management in an interview with Kshitij Bhargava of Financial Express Online. Nath added that 2021 will see the stock market move sideways but is hopeful that foreign flows will be dessert India but will continue to be net buyers. Here are the edited excerpts.

Stock markets continue to inch higher even after sharp sell-off, bulls do not seem to be giving up. Does this rally have more legs from here on?

With markets at all-time highs, the valuations have also become fuller if not stretched. The global markets are inundated with money due to lack of alternatives and therefore the valuations of most markets around the world are much higher than their long term averages. The hope rally is more or less done now, any movement upwards would now be driven by the fundamentals and therefore news of earnings growth, macroeconomic data etc. will have a larger bearing in future.

Foreign investors have continued buying domestic securities, who do you interpret from this? Should markets anticipate a sudden withdrawal from FIIs?

When the Covid pandemic started, India was considered as a country at the highest risk levels as we have a substantial population below the poverty line and our medical infrastructure is much inferior to the developed nations. However, as it has turned out, India has managed the crisis extremely well debunking various fears. The Economy bounce back has more certainty in India than in many other nations. This is one of the prime reasons for FIIs’ bullishness. I think FIIs would continue to invest in India on a net basis as India offers one of the best alternatives in the Emerging Markets with excellent market regulations, depth and breadth of markets and growth potential.

India has taken reforms seriously in 2020, what positives can we expect these reforms to bring for investors in 2021?

Yes, both government and central bank have played on the front foot in 2020 to bring the economy back on rails. The ease of credit flows to the bottom of the business pyramid is going to have a salutary effect on GDP growth as well as employment; the PLI scheme if implemented properly can bring in much needed foreign players and foreign capital in many sectors; the government promise on escalating expenditure should result in higher Economic Growth in the next two years.

IPOs have been an easy way to make money for investors in 2020, is this trend likely to continue?

Every time the bulls enter the markets, IPOs become popular. Money making should never be easy and whenever it becomes so, one can conclude with certainty that the markets are tilting towards irrationality. If the bulls continue to charge ahead in 2021, the IPO market may also see the positive influence but it is advisable to always exercise caution when investing in IPOs.

Valuations are too stretched, how should one analyse stocks in such a scenario?

It is difficult to pinpoint on the right value that one should pay for any stock. And yes the valuations in many sectors are now definitely stretched. The best way to deal with such situations is to one look at long term while investing in stocks with rich valuations, but also at the same time take a pause wherever the valuations have stretched beyond reasonable levels and invest in other stocks or sectors. 

What is your suggestion for investors in 2021?

2021 is a year of hope after what people have endured in 2020. The equity markets are ending 2020 with a big bang having delivered one of the fastest recoveries in the history of the markets in the last 6 months. I expect that the markets should remain sideways as some of the after-effects of Economic deceleration would start becoming visible. While investors should continue to remain invested in equity markets, the return expectations should be moderate.

Petrol and Diesel Price Today, 6 Oct 2022: Fuel cost steady; Check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, Noida, other cities

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Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Lucknow: The price of petrol and diesel remained unchanged on 6 October 2022 (Thursday), keeping costs steady for nearly four months now. The petrol rate and diesel rate in Delhi are at Rs 96.72 and Rs 89.62 per litre, respectively. In Mumbai, petrol is retailing at Rs 106.31 per litre and diesel at Rs 94.27 per litre. The last country-wide change in fuel prices came on 21 May this year, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a cut in excise duty on petrol by Rs 8 per litre and Rs 6 per litre on diesel.

Also read: Bank Nifty support at 38000, Nifty to trade flat on today’s expiry; use short straddle for 13 Oct F&O expiry

Also read: Reliance, HUL, HDFC Bank, Adani Enterprises, HCL Tech, SBI, DMart stocks in focus on weekly F&O expiry day

Petrol, diesel prices in Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Lucknow, Noida, Gurugram

Mumbai: Petrol price: Rs 106.31 per litre, Diesel price: 94.27 per litre

Delhi: Petrol price: Rs 96.72 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 89.62 per litre

Chennai: Petrol price: Rs 102.63 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 94.24 per litre

Kolkata: Petrol price: Rs 106.03 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 92.76 per litre

Bengaluru: Petrol: Rs 101.94 per litre, Diesel: Rs 87.89 per litre

Lucknow: Petrol: Rs 96.57 per litre, Diesel: Rs 89.76 per litre

Noida: Petrol: Rs 96.79 per litre, Diesel: Rs 89.96 per litre

Gurugram: Petrol: Rs 97.18 per litre, Diesel: Rs 90.05 per litre

Chandigarh: Petrol: Rs 96.20 per litre, Diesel: Rs 84.26 per litre

Public sector OMCs including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) revise the fuel prices daily in line with international benchmark prices and foreign exchange rates. Any changes in petrol and diesel prices are implemented from 6 am every day. Retail petrol and diesel prices differ from state to state because of local taxes like VAT or freight charges.

Rupee hits new record low; Yuan, pound and euro crack against dollar

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The rupee plunged sharply on Monday to hit a new low of Rs 81.6526 against the dollar amidst a severe weakening of several currencies, as investors sought the safe haven of the dollar. The dollar index traded above 113 levels for the first time since 2002 as deep tax cuts in the UK sent the sterling to a record low. The greenback has gained in value since the US Fed’s announcement last Wednesday it would be raising rates more than earlier indicated.

Also Read: Weakening rupee to make import of crude oil, commodities expensive, fuel inflation

Sterling made a partial recovery on Monday after crashing to a record low in the early trade as traders rushed for the exits on mounting concerns that the new government’s economic plan will stretch Britain’s finances to the limit. The British pound’s drop helped lift the US dollar to a new two-decade peak against a basket of major currencies, while the euro hit a fresh two-decade low against the greenback. China’s yuan finished domestic trading session at a new 28-month low against the dollar.

Lakshmanan V, senior VP & head – Treasury, Federal Bank, observed the rupee was bound to get impacted given how the markets had been spooked by the weakness in currencies like the pound and how investors were moving money to the safe haven dollar. “The theme of the strengthening dollar and weakening rupee could continue to play out. A lot will depend on how the RBI views the depreciation and how it chooses to act in the currency markets,” Lakshamanan said. The central bank has always maintained it does not target a level for the rupee but merely aims to smoothen volatility.

Abheek Barua, chief economist, HDFC Bank, believes the central bank should intervene to ensure that a weakening currency doesn’t eclipse India’s fundamentals. “While there might be some benefits of a depreciated currency in closing the trade gap, the damage to the capital account in terms of reduced confidence of investors will outweigh this benefit,” Barua wrote in a note. He believes more capital at this stage would help stabilise the rupee and enable the RBI to replenish its reserves chest.

Also Read: Rupee-Dollar Value: 5 things to know before investing or sending money abroad

Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark bond rose to 7.417% in intra-day trade, a level last seen on July 21, before closing the session at 7.359%; on Friday, the yield had closed at a two-month high of 7.3926%. At the end of the June quarter, on June 30, the yield stood at 7.449%. While the markets have priced in a 50-basis points hike in the repo on Friday, when the MPC will announce its decision, bonds sold off in morning trades on Friday, as investors remain nervous. Retail inflation rose to 7% in August and has stayed above the central bank’s upper tolerance level for eight straight months to August.

Radhika Rao, senior economist, DBS Bank, expects the repo to be hiked by 50 bps given the MPC is more confident about growth than inflation. “Rate hikes and a gradual adjustment in the benchmark yields will help prevent further fall in the spreads between the Indian and US ten-year bonds, underpinning rate sensitive flows. The end-2022 repo rate could be 6.25% with upside risks,” Rao observed in a note. Federal Bank’s Lakshmanan pointed out yields on US treasuries were moving up. The RBI, he said, has been supplying liquidity to the markets through variable repo auctions thereby keeping a lid on short-term rates. The markets saw a shortage of liquidity on a couple of days last week. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economist at State Bank of India, said on Monday that the government cash balances with the RBI could be as high as Rs 4 trillion, following the outflows from the system on account of advance taxes and GST.

Review windfall tax on crude, says Oil ministry

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State-run ONGC and private sector firm Cairn are likely to benefit if the finance ministry accepts a proposal by the oil ministry to exempt hydrocarbon blocks, which were bid out to companies under the production-sharing contract (PSC) and revenue-sharing contract (RSC) mechanisms, from the windfall taxes on domestic crude. 

Agencies reported that the oil ministry argued that since these contracts, which have been awarded sine 1990s, have an in-built mechanism, whereby high prices as incremental gains get transferred in the form of higher profit share for the government, the one-off tax could be waived in such cases.

As for these blocks, royalty and cess is levied and the government gets a pre-determined percentage of profits.

The government has so far signed PSC contracts for more than 300 blocks and around 100 contracts under RSC.

While ONGC has so far got 31 PSC blocks and 58 RSCs under different contractual regimes, Cairn has got five PSC blocks and 62 RSC blocks.

On July 1, the Centre imposed special additional excise duty of Rs 23,250/tonne on crude and export taxes on petrol, diesel and ATF at Rs 6/litre, Rs 13/litre and Rs 6/litre, respectively. The tax on petrol was removed subsequently.

Also Read: ONGC wants govt to scrap windfall tax, USD 10 gas price 

The government’s rationale for introducing these taxes is to lay its hands on a chunk of the “windfall profits” reaped by some of the domestic firms, on the back of elevated global oil prices. The move is also aimed at addressing the crunch in the domestic fuel market, as private refiners neglected supplies to domestic retail outlets while tapping the highly remunerative export markets.

However, since then the government has reviewed the new tax for five times. In the fifth revision last week, the government slashed the windfall tax on domestic crude by 21% to Rs 10,500/tonne. It also cut the special levy on export of diesel by 26% to Rs 10/litre and trimmed the tax on jet fuel shipments by a steeper 44% to Rs 5/litre. In the fourth review on August 31, the government had raised the windfall taxes with the exports of diesel attracting a tax of Rs 13.5/litre, up from Rs 7 previously. Similarly, shipments of ATF were subjected to an impost of Rs 9/litre, up from Rs 2. The government has also raised the tax on domestically produced crude oil to Rs 13,300/tonne from Rs 13,000.

UK Government Publishes Landmark Report on Frontier AI Risks and Opportunities

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The UK Government has made history by officially releasing a comprehensive report that sheds light on the capabilities and risks associated with frontier AI. This report, which draws from sources including intelligence assessments, marks a significant step in addressing the challenges posed by the rapid advancement of AI. The insights contained in this report will be pivotal in shaping discussions at the forthcoming AI Safety Summit scheduled to be held at Bletchley Park.

For the first time, the UK Government has made public a paper dedicated to frontier AI, emphasizing the global obligation to confront these risks head-on while harnessing the immense potential that AI promises. As Prime Minister Rishi Sunak prepares to deliver a speech on the worldwide responsibility to manage AI’s risks and rewards, this report underscores the necessity for a coordinated approach.

A fundamental objective of the AI Safety Summit, the world’s first global gathering focusing on AI safety, is to establish a shared comprehension of the emerging risks. This understanding will, in turn, guide nations in effectively managing these risks and reaping the substantial benefits offered by frontier AI. The report unveiled today will play a vital role in shaping the discussions during the summit, emphasizing the UK Government’s commitment to making strategic, long-term decisions for a brighter future and leading the global charge in AI safety.

According to an official statement shared with the media by the British High Commission, New Delhi, in his forthcoming address, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to state:

“AI will usher in new knowledge, fresh opportunities for economic growth, unprecedented advances in human capabilities, and the potential to tackle challenges we once deemed insurmountable. However, it also introduces new threats and apprehensions. Therefore, my duty is to confront these concerns head-on, ensuring your safety while securing the opportunities that AI brings for you and your descendants. Doing what is right, not what is easy, means being forthright about the perils linked to these technologies.”

The report is divided into three parts:

Capabilities and Risks from Frontier AI: This section serves as a discussion paper, emphasizing the need for further research into AI risk. It addresses the current state of frontier AI capabilities, their potential for enhancement in the future, and the risks they presently pose, encompassing societal harms, misuse, and loss of control.

Safety and Security Risks of Generative Artificial Intelligence to 2025: Drawing from sources including intelligence assessments, this report underscores that generative AI development can offer significant global benefits while concurrently amplifying safety and security risks by enhancing the capabilities of threat actors and the effectiveness of attacks.

Future Risks of Frontier AI: This report, presented by the Government Office for Science, examines key uncertainties in the development of frontier AI, the potential risks that future AI systems might present, and an array of potential scenarios for AI through 2030.

The AI Safety Summit will be primarily focused on the risks arising at the forefront of AI, particularly concerning the misuse of AI by non-state actors for activities like cyber-attacks or the design of bioweapons. Additionally, it will scrutinize the dangers related to the loss of control over AI, where AI systems may autonomously act in ways that are misaligned with human intentions and values.

Recognizing that AI’s impacts extend beyond these specific concerns, the Summit will also encompass discussions about the societal implications of integrating frontier AI, such as disruptions to elections, biases, increased criminal activity, and online safety. Furthermore, a substantial volume of work is ongoing at both international forums and national levels to address various other AI-related risks.

Technology Secretary Michelle Donelan expressed: “This marks a pivotal moment as the UK takes the lead globally in formally summarizing the risks posed by this influential technology. There is no doubt that AI can and will revolutionize the world, from simplifying everyday tasks to enhancing healthcare and addressing global challenges such as hunger and climate change. However, we cannot fully harness its benefits without addressing its risks.

No single nation can undertake this task in isolation, which is why we are extending a warm welcome to governments, scholars, civil society organizations, and businesses to Bletchley Park next month. Together, we aim to forge a collective comprehension of the risks while contemplating how we can develop and deploy AI safely and responsibly, thereby ensuring that it transforms lives for the better.”

Buy these two stocks to pocket gains as Nifty looks to breach near-term resistance

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By Nagaraj Shetti

After showing a sign of strength with upside momentum on Tuesday, Nifty demonstrated another sharp upmove on Wednesday and closed the day higher by 211 points. After opening with upside gap of 57 points, Nifty shifted into a sustained upmove that continued for the entire session. Intraday consolidation or minor dips in between have been used as buy on dips opportunity for the day. The opening upside gap remains unfilled.

After the false downside breakout of the lower range of 14200 levels on 22nd April, Nifty displayed strength on the upside and has almost reached the upper trajectory of the range pattern at 14900 levels. Hence, a sustainable move above this hurdle could open the next upside target of around 15200-15300 levels in the near term.

Nifty has bounced back as per weekly timeframe chart and formed a long bull candle so far. After the formation of doji candles in the previous three weeks during decline, one may now expect a formation of long bull candle as per weekly timeframe chart, by week’s close.

The short term trend of Nifty continues to be positive. After the display of strength to move above the hurdle, one may expect present upside resistance (14900) to be broken decisively on the upside in the short term. Any intraday consolidation or minor weakness from near the hurdle could be a buy on dips opportunity. Immediate support is placed at 14750. 

Stock Picks: 

Buy JK Tyre & Industries Ltd- (CMP Rs 116.60) 

The broader downward trend in this Tyre stock (JKTYRE) of the last few months seems to have reversed on the upside as per the weekly timeframe chart. After shifting into a consolidation pattern recently, the stock price witnessed sustainable up-move in the last few sessions. The stock price is currently placed to show a decisive upside breakout of the downward sloping trend line resistance around Rs 118-119 levels. Hence, a sustainable move above Rs 119 levels could open a sharp trended up-move in the stock price in near term. Weekly 14 period RSI shows a positive indication.

Buying can be initiated in JKTYRE at CMP (116.60), add more on dips down to Rs 112, wait for the upside target of Rs 130 in the next 3-4 weeks. Place a stoploss of Rs 109.

Buy Heritage Foods Ltd – (CMP Rs 377.50) 

After showing a larger range bound action in the last few weeks, the stock price (Heritage Foods Ltd) has witnessed a sharp upside bounce from the last week. The stock price was moving in a larger triangle type pattern in the last many months and has witnessed an upside breakout of the triangle at Rs 355 levels recently. This is a positive indication and one may expect sharp up-move in the near term. Weekly 14 period RSI moved above 60 levels and volume has started to expand while the stock price shows upside breakout of the hurdle. 

Buying can be initiated in Tata at CMP (377.50), add more on dips down to Rs 360, wait for the upside target of Rs 420 in the next 3-4 weeks. Place a stoploss of Rs 348.

(Nagaraj Shetti is a Technical Research Analyst at HDFC securities. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)