Category: 阿拉爱上海

Sun Pharma, Jindal Steel among top stocks to buy, sell; intraday chart suggests Nifty may fall up to 14,130

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By Shrikant Chouhan

The market registered an extremely volatile session, the Nifty/ Sensex closed 63/243 points lower. The Nifty/ Sensex failed to sustain above the 14500/48400 resistance mark and due to consistent selling pressure at higher levels along with tepid global cues the benchmark index corrected sharply. Among sectors, profit booking was seen in IT stocks whereas, Auto, Pharma and selective Media stocks witnessed buying interest.

Jindal Steel and Power Ltd BUY, CMP: Rs 431.55, TARGET: Rs 455, SL: Rs 420

On the daily time frame, after the sharp up move, the stock was into a consolidation phase and finally, it has given a breakout from its Flag chart pattern with incremental volume activity indicating further up move in the coming horizon.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries LtdBUY, CMP: Rs 645.15, TARGET: Rs 675, SL: Rs 630

The stock is trading into a rising channel pattern making the higher top and higher bottom series on weekly and monthly charts, therefore all major technical trend indicators such as MACD and ADX are strong and intact. Thus upward movement from the current level is very likely to remain in the near term.

Bata IndiaSELL, CMP: Rs 1,297.65, TARGET: Rs 1,230, SL: Rs 1,330

The stock is in a downtrend where the bears are quite strong at the moment as bulls are not able to gain strength, on the monthly scale as well the stock is trading below its rising trend line and short-term moving averages which indicates bearishness in the counter.

RBL Bank SELL, CMP: Rs 174.55, TARGET: Rs 165, SL: Rs 180

Bearish continuation formation is evident in the counter as it is continuously making lower high and lower lows, hence the overall structure of the stock suggest that it is heading to its previous demand zone on the downside

(Shrikant Chouhan is Executive Vice President (Equity Technical Research), Kotak Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own.)

Asian Paints Rating: buy; Not just a shade card; a full catalogue

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We expect Asian Paints (APL) to reinforce its leadership in FY23 with double-digit volume growth. Q2FY23 in our view, will likely benefit from a strong September, but see a weak Jul-Aug as heavy rains delay exterior painting. On a three-year basis, APL’s 20% CAGR is much brighter than the industry’s 15%. Auto coatings has picked up well with a fair share in Indian OEMs. Kitchen, bath, lighting etc. make up 4% of revenue, and APL aims to scale it up to 8–10% in four years.

Waterproofing revenue, which had doubled in FY22, would continue to undergo strong double-digit growth. In our view, the paints sector has huge moats, and would not be an easy pushover for new entrants. Maintain ‘BUY’ with a TP of `3,815.

Also read: Paytm share price rises 7% in 6 months, may rally this much more; JP Morgan bullish, should you buy?

* Demand: July-August demand postponed due to excessive rainfall. Management anticipates a good festive season—advanced to the third week of October.

* Barring crude-linked raw material (RM), majority of the RMs have not stabilised.

* Waterproofing business: Doing well in repair and renovation. In our view, Pidilite is more into new projects, so we expect both to do well.

* 22 patents filed; 29 products developed in FY22. 200-plus scientists in R&D: It is focussed on alternative material sourcing and formulation optimisation.

* Second factory in Bangladesh with initial capacity of 25,000KL/year operational.

* Indonesia foray: APL is gaining good presence in the ‘value for money’ market segment.

* Safe Painting service gained major traction in FY22, up almost 3x YoY. This is a strong differentiator vis-à-vis competition.

Outlook and valuation: Fundamentals strong; maintain ‘BUY’

Also read: Tata Motors eyes 4WD in its upcoming electric SUVs to level up its EV game

APL continues to be the dominant player, and we expect the status quo to sustain despite Grasim’s impending entry. APL’s industry-leading growth in the decorative segment (31%/36% y-o-y by volume/value in FY22) was driven by upgradation of ‘bottom-of-the-pyramid’ and focus on premiumising the mid/top-end. Auto coatings has picked up well over the past 5-6 months, and APL has a fair share of Indian OEMs.

Kitchen, bath, lighting and others make up 4% of revenue. APL aims to scale it up to 8–10% of revenue in four years. The Indonesia arm too has scaled up well due to creditable presence in ‘value for money’. We expect meaningful growth in decorative volumes to sustain. Maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with a target price of `3,815.

Harsha Engineers, Britannia, Embassy REIT, Coal India, BPCL, State Bank of India stocks in focus

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Indian equity markets are likely to open lower on Monday as ahead of the trading session, SGX Nifty was in red, hinting at a negative start for NSE Nifty 50, and BSE Sensex. “We expect volatility to remain high as we have important events like MPC’s monetary policy review meet and monthly derivatives expiry scheduled during the week. Besides, the prevailing pressure in the global indices would continue to weigh on the sentiment. Markets are finally giving in to the pressure of global indices especially the US and are likely to inch further lower ahead,” said Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking.

Stocks in focus 26 September, Monday

Harsha Engineers: The company share will debut on stock exchanges on Monday. Ahead of the listing, Harsha Engineers shares commanded a grey market premium of Rs 170. The Rs 755-crore public issue was bought 74.7 times by participants, and despite uncertainty in the equity markets, analysts expect Harsha Engineers stocks to make a strong debut with a significant premium over its issue price of Rs 330 per share.

Embassy Office Parks REIT: Blackstone Inc will reportedly sell a stake of $400 million in Embassy Office Parks REIT, India’s major real estate investment trust, through block deals. Abu Dhabi’s Sovereign wealth fund, being the world’s largest, will pick up at least half of the stake that Blackstone is to sell, reported Reuters.

BPCL: State-run Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Brazilian oil major Petrobras, to diversify its crude oil sourcing. In a statement BPCL said, the signing of the MoU will strengthen future crude oil trade relations between the two companies and explore potential crude import opportunities by BPCL, on a long-term basis, especially considering the current geopolitical situations.

Coal India: State-owned Coal India will sign agreements with three public sector enterprises — Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd., Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. and GAIL (India)– in order to set up four surface gasification projects. The government aims to achieve 100 million tonnes of coal gasification in the next eight years in order to reduce the import of crude oil which is otherwise used to produce syngas.

Britannia: The maker of the popular Good Day and Tiger biscuits has appointed Rajneet Kohli as its chief executive officer, effective September 26. Kohli is currently president and chief business officer at Domino’s India, run by food service company Jubilant FoodWorks. He also held senior leadership roles in Asian Paints Ltd and Coca-Cola Co. His appointment comes at a time when the industry is grappling with margin concerns amid soaring inflation.

Also Read: MCX crude oil Oct futures: Wait for crude to cross Rs 7,150/bbl; check key levels to watchout for next week

SBI: State Bank of India has raised Rs 4,000 crore Basel III compliant Tier 2 bonds at a coupon rate of 7.57 per cent. The public lender said that the tier 2 bonds attracted an overwhelming response from investors with bids of Rs 9,647 crores, and was oversubscribed by about 5 times against the base issue size of Rs 2,000 crores.

Wall Street opens sharply higher, clawing back more ground

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Stocks are opening sharply higher again on Wall Street as the market continues to claw back more of the ground it lost in a miserable several weeks that brought the S&P 500 to its lowest point of the year last Friday. The benchmark index was up just over 2% in the early going Tuesday. Other major U.S. indexes were also higher. Treasury yields continued to pull back from their multiyear highs. European markets also posted strong gains. Australia’s market jumped 3.8% overnight after that country’s central bank made an interest rate increase that was smaller than previous ones. THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.

U.S. futures are sharply higher Tuesday, potentially extending a quarter-opening rally this week after a dismal September. Futures for the Dow Jones industrials jumped 1.3% and futures for the benchmark S&P 500 rose 1.6% following Monday’s 2.6% gain. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite, which has been pummeled, lead the way with a 2% leap.

It is hoped by many investors that the Federal Reserve might ease off on its aggressive interest rate hikes intended to beat down high inflation that has rattled businesses as well as families. By raising rates, the Fed is making it more expensive to buy a house, a car or most anything else on credit with the goal of slowing the economy just enough to starve inflation of the spending that has driven prices higher.

ALSO READ US Stock Market Today: Are the bulls staging a comeback on Wall Street?

The Fed has already pushed its key overnight interest rate to a range of 3% to 3.25%, up from virtually zero as recently as March. Most traders expect that to be more than a full percentage point higher by early next year. But stresses are building in financial markets and corporate profits have weakened as central banks around the world hike rates in concert. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 jumped 3.8% to 6,699.30 after its central bank boosted its benchmark interest rate for a sixth consecutive month to a nine-year high of 2.6%. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s increase of a quarter percentage point to the cash rate was smaller than those at recent monthly meetings. When the bank lifted the rate by a quarter percentage point at its board meeting in May, it was the first rate hike in more than 11 years. It’s now at its highest point since August 2013, when the bank cut the rate from 2.75% to 2.5%.Besides stocks, lower rates also boost prices for everything from cryptocurrencies to gold, which can suddenly look a bit more attractive when bonds are paying less in income.

Elsewhere, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added nearly 3.0% to finish at 26,992.21. South Korea’s Kospi gained 2.5% to 2,209.98. Markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai were closed for holidays. At midday in Europe, France’s CAC 40 gained 3.4%, Germany’s DAX rose 2.9% and Britain’s FTSE 100 added 1.9%. The latest update on the U.S. jobs market, the labor turnover report, arrives Tuesday. The more consequential monthly jobs report is out Friday. . It will be the last jobs report before the Fed makes its next decision on interest rates, scheduled for Nov. 2. Continued strength would give the central bank more leeway to keep hiking. Traders say the likeliest move is a fourth straight increase of a whopping three-quarters of a percentage point, triple the usual move.

In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude added $1.16 to $84.79 a barrel. It jumped Monday amid speculation big oil-producing countries could soon announce cuts to production. Brent crude, the international standard, added $1.44 to $90.30 a barrel. In currency trading, the U.S. dollar was stable at 144.81 Japanese yen from. The euro cost 98.90 cents, up from 98.40 cents.

Share Market HIGHLIGHTS: Sensex ends 322 pts up, Nifty at 17936 ahead of CPI inflation, IIP data; Reliance up

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Share Market News Today | Sensex, Nifty, Share Prices HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic equity market benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 settle more than 0.5 per cent high on Monday, ahead of India’s CPI Inflation of August and IIP for July data release. BSE Sensex gained 322 points or 0.5 per cent to settle at 60,115, while NSE Nifty 50 added 0.6 per cent or 103 points to finish trade at 17,936.35. Stocks of Tech Mahindra, Titan Company, Axis Bank, Tata Steel, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), Wipro were among top index gainers. On the contrary, Nestle India, Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC), HDFC Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Sun Pharma were among top index losers. Nifty Bank index gained 0.4 per cent to settle trade at 40,574

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Share Market Today | Sensex, Nifty, BSE, NSE, Share Prices, Stock Market News

15:37 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Sensex ends above 60000, Nifty at 17936

BSE Sensex gained 322 points or 0.5 per cent to settle at 60,115, while NSE Nifty 50 added 0.6 per cent or 103 points to finish trade at 17,936.35

15:03 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 India’s IIP data in focus today, July output data to provide status on manufacturing, mining, other sectors

The government will on Monday evening release the keenly-watched factory output data for the month of July. The factory output measured in terms of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 12.3 per cent in June this year, remaining in double digit for second month in a row due to base effect. Read full story

14:57 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Defense sector in focus

Defense sector is buzzing currently on the back of a strong order book, orders from GOI under the Ministry of Defense, technological advancements and requirements according to the geopolitical environment and export orders. This gives us a visibility of up to 4-5 years as the country needs to match the international standards. Furthermore, profitability led by higher indigenisation theme, better operating leverage and higher contribution from non government orders should augur well for the margins. Valuations too seem comfortable to us for the entire sector. Therefore we are bullish on the sector, particularly on BEL due to additional positives like a lean balance sheet, better working capital management and emphasis on some non profitable non defense sectors. Ashwin Patil, Senior Research Analyst at LKP Securities

14:50 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Credit growth to be in range of 12-13% during FY23

In the short term, given the approaching festival season, the credit growth is likely to remain elevated. After a modest credit growth in recent years, the outlook for bank credit offtake is positive due to the economic expansion tracking nominal GDP growth, rise in government & private capital expenditure, rising commodity prices, implementation of the PLI scheme, the extension of ECLGS for MSME and retail credit push. The medium-term prospects look promising with diminished corporate stress and a substantial buffer for provisions. However, inflation remains a key risk. Even as RBI has managed domestic inflation to some extent, internationally inflation has remained high despite hawkish policies. Hence, CareEdge estimates the credit growth to be in the range of 12%-13% during FY23, however, rate hikes could adversely impact credit growth. CareEdge

14:28 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Surging prices hit UK economic growth, raise recession risk

Britain’s economy grew by less than expected in July, raising the risk that it is already in a recession, with the sharp climb in energy tariffs hurting demand for electricity and a leap in the cost of materials hitting the construction sector. With inflation at a 40-year high of more 10%, gross domestic product expanded by 0.2% from June, official data showed on Monday, weaker than a median forecast of 0.4%. Read full story

13:25 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 India’s milk export to boost Modi’s Atma Nirbhar Bharat; PM says dairy sector employs 8 crore families

PM Narendra Modi said that India has become the largest producer of dairy products in the world due to collective efforts of small-scale dairy farmers. India’s dairy sector is recognised for production by masses rather than mass production. “Today 8 crore families are getting employment from the dairy sector,” the PM said while inaugurating International Dairy Federation World Dairy Summit (IDF WDS) 2022 on Monday, 12 September. Union Minister of Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairy Purshottam Rupala said that the World Dairy Summit 2022 has been organised after over 48 years in India. “Our milk production is 220 million tonne today. We are in the position to export surplus milk, in line with the ‘Aatma Nirbhar Bharat’,” Rupala said. Read full story

13:05 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Buy these two stocks for near-term gains, charts show strength; Nifty needs to hold above 17550, buy on dips

Back home, expect the rally to continue in the domestic market due to strong macro, continued FIIs buying interest and oil price falling to 7-month low. Sensex gained nearly 1000 points or 2%, biggest weekly gain since July. Better than expected quarterly earnings along with strong PMI data and above normal monsoon will be big positive in the local bourses. FIIs were strong net buyers over Rs6000cr this week while Sensex has shown over 60k intra-day high this week. It is expected that the Indian markets will continue its upward journey and any decline will be good buying opportunity. Read full story

12:30 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Mahindra Lifespace Developers share price jumps over 2%; stocks hit fresh 52-week high on BSE

Shares of Mahindra Lifespace Developers touched its 52-week high in the morning trade on Monday after the realty firm said it is looking to acquire a few land parcels this fiscal to build housing projects. Shares of the company opened at Rs 541.95 on Monday, then gained 2.37 per cent to touch Rs 550.40, its 52-week high level on the BSE. Similar movement was seen on the NSE as well. The stock opened at Rs 539 and later touched its 52-week high of Rs 539.30 apiece. Read full story

11:35 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Reliance share price gains 1%, Mukesh Ambani’s RIL to acquire Shubhalakshmi Polyesters for Rs 1592 cr

Shares of Reliance Industries gained nearly 1 per cent in morning trade on Monday after the company announced the acquisition of polyester chips and yarn manufacturer Shubhalakshmi Polyesters Ltd for Rs 1,592 crore. On September 10, Reliance Industries said the acquisition is part of the strategy to expand its downstream polyester business. Read full story

11:28 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 CPI inflation may see marginal uptick to 6.75-6.9% on fall in crude oil prices, IIP may at come in at 5.7-5.9%

CPI inflation print eased to a five-month low to 6.71% in Jul’22 compared to 7.01% in Jun’22 due to easing of food inflation. Food and beverage inflation softened to 6.71% in July from 7.56% in June on account of sequential decline in prices of vegetables, edible oils and protein items. Edible oil inflation has moderated in recent months owing to government interventions and easing global prices. Core CPI also moderated to 10-month low to 5.8% in July. Falling international commodity prices have eased cost pressures for producers to some extent. Read full story

10:38 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 MCX gold price to trade sideways to weak this week, investors await US CPI inflation data; check support level

We expect gold prices to trade sideways to down this week with COMEX spot gold resistance at $1740 per ounce and support at $1676 per ounce. At MCX, Gold October prices have near term resistance at Rs. 51500 per 10 grams and support at Rs. 49800 per 10 gram. COMEX Spot silver has near term resistance at $19.40 per ounce with support at $17.90 per ounce. MCX Silver December has important resistance at Rs. 57000 per kg and support at Rs. 52500 per kg. Read full story

10:18 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Petrol, Diesel Price Today, 12 Sep 2022: Fuel cost steady, check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, Noida, other cities

Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Lucknow: The price of petrol and diesel has been kept steady on 12 September 2022 (Monday), keeping costs steady for more than three months now. Petrol and diesel in Delhi is priced at Rs 96.72 and Rs 89.62 a litre, respectively. In Mumbai, petrol is retailing at Rs 106.31 per litre and diesel at Rs 94.27 per litre. The last country-wide change in price came on 21 May 2022, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a cut in excise duty on petrol by Rs 8 per litre, and Rs 6 per litre on diesel. Read full story

10:06 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Nifty may trade positive, use Iron Butterfly for 15 Sep F&O expiry; Bank Nifty may hit 42000; Buy SBI, M&M

The chart pattern suggests that if NSE Nifty 50 crosses and sustains above 18000 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 18100-18400 levels. However, if the index breaks below 17600 level it would witness selling which would take the index towards 17500-17300. For the week, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 18400-17400 with a positive bias. The daily and weekly strength indicator RSI is above its respective reference lines indicating positive bias. Read full story

09:28 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Nifty looks set to hit 18160-18600 in near term, Bank Nifty shows upmove; watch out for these levels

Bank Nifty has begun to show much more upward mobility than Nifty. Its present up move, which is the third such attempt since markets came off the 2021 peaks, has returned 26% in the span of 84 days, putting the last two attempts to shade. Further, the present move is replete with bullish continuation patterns, adding credence to the expectation that this run could get extended much beyond the record peak. Nifty Midcap100 index has broken out of the flag pattern on weekly time frame alongside a psar breakout in the monthly charts painting a positive outlook for the index in the medium term. Read full story

09:22 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Nifty Bank remains above 40,500

Nifty Bank index was up 0.3 per cent, to trade above 40,540

09:21 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 HDFC shares top BSE Sensex laggard

HDFC (Housing Development Finance Corporation) was the only S&P BSE Sensex loser

09:20 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Reliance, Infosys, Titan top BSE Sensex gainers

Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Tata Steel, HCL Tech, M&M, Wipro, TCS, Titan Company, ICICI Bank, Dr Reddy’s, Reliance, were among top index gainers

09:19 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Sensex, Nifty jump 0.5%

BSE Sensex was up 272 points or 0.5 per cent to trade above 60,000, while Nifty 50 index soared above 17900

09:07 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 The beaten down IT segment may participate in pull back rally

The most important bullish factor that has caused and is sustaining India’s market outperformance is the strong growth recovery underway in India now. RBI’s report which puts bank credit growth now running at 15.5% is an endorsement of this fact. Bank Nifty which has outperformed Nifty by 11% is a reflection of this strong undercurrent in the banking segment. Even though valuations are high it appears that this rally has more steam to go up. While financials will continue to be resilient some sector rotation can be expected at this juncture. The beaten down IT segment may participate in a pull back rally. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services

09:07 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Nifty looks set to touch 18160-18600 in near term

Last Friday’s rejection trades on approach to 17900 revives collapse fears, having fallen about 4.5%, the last time Nifty rose above 17900, on 19 August. But the main difference this time is that last Friday’s dip was accompanied by decline in VIX, as opposed to a rise in VIX on 19th August. This encourages us to look for 18160-18600 in the near term. Alternatively, inability to float above 17750, will negate our bullish bias, and revisit chances of 17000-16650, should 17450 give away as well. Anand James – Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services

09:06 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 FPIs infuse Rs 5,600 crore in Indian equities in September so far

Foreign investors have pumped in close to Rs 5,600 crore into the domestic equity markets in this month so far on expected growth in consumer spending in festive season and better macro fundamentals compared to other emerging markets. This comes following a net investment of staggering Rs 51,200 crore in August and nearly Rs 5,000 crore in July, data with depositories showed. Read full story

09:01 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Reliance Industries Rating: Buy – Building the next engine of growth: Motilal Oswal

The report showed RIL’s FY22 belonged to the O2C (order to cash) segment performance that outpaced other segments, even as RJio retained its market share. Retail business saw a steady recovery. The high crude prices led to 56% y-o-y Ebitda growth in O2C business while Retail grew 28% y-o-y; RJio growth, however, decelerated to 22% y-o-y. Post-equity raise during the last couple of years, FY22 saw a strong capex with heavy investments, especially in RJio, which included a large-scale spectrum investment. Read full story

09:00 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 Nifty near 18K: Market pundits call for caution

Market pundits are calling for caution amid a surge in Indian equities since mid-June and the benchmark 50-share Nifty nearing a decisive resistance level of 18,000. The index has corrected on four occasions after breaching the mark in the past year, with three corrections in excess of 10%. A gap of more than 2 percentage points between the yield of 10-year government securities and that of Nifty50 earnings has also coincided with the peaking of Nifty, according to foreign brokerage Jefferies. The current gap stands at 2.01 ppt. Read full story

08:59 (IST) 12 Sep 2022 CPI inflation likely to reverse 3-month downtrend in Aug on high food prices; WPI seen in double-digits

The inflation prints for August 2022 that are due to be released early next week assume significance as they would be the final official inflation-related data points available before the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) meeting in end-September 2022. We expect the CPI and the WPI inflation to display a contrasting trend. ICRA expects the CPI inflation to have witnessed a mild base-effect led uptick in August 2022, halting the downtrend seen in the last three months. The WPI inflation, on the other hand, is expected to have continued to ease for the third consecutive month, while remaining firmly in double digits. Read full story

Will bears drag Nifty to 16800 amid high volatility, uncertainty? 5 things to know before market opening bell

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The sell-off in the domestic share market is likely to continue as SGX Nifty hinted at a gap-down open for NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex with a loss of 101 pts or 0.5%. “We expect market volatility to continue until RBI MPC outcome and monthly derivatives expiry. We expect stock related to domestic consumption to perform well with strong festive season. Also sectors like Paint, FMCG would see momentum on the back of sharp fall in crude oil prices,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Also Read: Reliance, HCL Tech, Dish TV, Torrent Pharma, Birla Corporation, IDBI Bank, Adani Group stocks in focus

Nifty technical view: “A reasonable negative candle was formed on the daily chart, that has placed beside the similar negative candle of previous session. Technically, this pattern signal broader range bound action in the market with weak bias. It also indicates a lack of strength in the intraday upside bounce. This is not a good sign and one may expect further weakness in the short term. The area of 16800 has acted as an important value area, and has resulted in significant movement from its support/resistance/breakouts in the past. Hence, having declined swiftly from the highs of 18K mark this time, there is a possibility of a sustainable upside bounce from near this support,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

Levels to watch for: As Nifty remains below 17150 zones, weakness may be seen towards 16850-16800 zones whereas hurdles are placed at 17250. As Banknifty suggested more weakness in line, heavy weights Bank showed no resilience to free fall. So, closing below 38000 levels would stretch towards 37200. Increasing exposure in quality stocks would be advisable for coming weeks, according to Om Mehra, Technical Associate, Choice Broking.

Stocks under F&O ban on NSE: Vodafone Idea, and Zee Entertainment Enterprises are the two stocks under the NSE F&O ban list for 28 September. Securities thus banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts have crossed 95 per cent of the market-wide position limit.

Also Read: Sensex falls for 4th day straight, Nifty support at 16907; investors eye crude oil prices, RBI MPC meet

Global slowdown threat looms: The head of the World Trade Organization told Reuters on Tuesday that she expects that global trade forecasts will be revised lower from the current 3 per cent for 2022, citing the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and related food and energy crises. “We are in the middle of revising our forecasts now but it’s not looking very promising. All the indicators are pointing to downside numbers,” Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said adding “Grosso modo the outlook is looking gloomy. The WTO already revised down its forecast for global trade growth this year to 3 per cent from 4.7 per cent in April.

Studying Abroad: UK’s crackdown on poor quality degrees

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By Matthew McLellan

The UK Government’s decision to bring University courses that fail to deliver good outcomes under strict control ( those with high drop-out rates and poor employment prospects) is a step that signifies the woes of an intricately related academia-industry–economy troika, and underscores the importance of quality education in preparing students for successful careers and productive lives.

Higher education is crucial in determining the composition of the future labour force and fostering economic growth in a society where information and innovation are increasingly becoming the fundamental driving forces.

Governments all around the world are realising how crucial it is to guarantee that their institutions issue degrees that offer meaningful education and value to international students.

Degrees with Real World Relevance

Degrees must now be carefully matched to the demands of the labour market. Aligning degrees with the needs of the labour market starts a positive feedback loop for economic expansion.

As education becomes more tailored to the skills and knowledge demanded by industries, students graduate with expertise that caters to the need of the economy. This ensures a seamless transition from academia to employment, reducing the skills gap that often plagues economies and enhances social mobility by bridging the gap among students from different socio-economic backgrounds.

Focusing on Student Success

The powerful message emanating from the recent development highlights the importance of supporting student success. Universities and colleges must create environments that nurture learning and engagement in order to ensure that students have the tools and resources they need to thrive not just during the course of their academic journey but also in the aftermath of their degree’s completion.

This approach nurtures among students a sense of accomplishment and incentivises students to stay motivated to complete their degrees. For coaching platforms, this highlights the significance of providing comprehensive support that addresses academic challenges and promotes well-being.

Mitigating Student Debt

An important subtext here is to alleviate the burden of student debt. High levels of student debt can hinder graduates from pursuing opportunities that align with their passions, as they are compelled to prioritise financial stability. To create a more economically empowered workforce, we need to encourage study programs that offer a reasonable balance between cost and potential earnings. Study abroad coaching platforms can contribute by assisting students in making informed decisions while choosing a course.

Call for International Efforts

Global cooperation between governments, institutions, and study-abroad coaching platforms is another noteworthy lesson. To address the challenge of subpar education and create an environment that caters to the needs of industry and students, governments may take this as a ripe opportunity to start exchanging data on effective degree programmes and best practices.

The fact that the number of students looking for possibilities outside of their national boundaries is witnessing exponential growth accentuates that countries and their governments need to collaborate to provide students with a conducive environment that includes their well-being even after the completion of their education, to ensure that irrespective of national origin, every student obtain a top-notch and economically rewarding education wherever they decide to enrol.

Studying abroad is a complex journey that requires investment at all levels of a student’s existence- physical, mental, financial and emotional. Without a doubt, when so much is invested, the outcome must be rewarding in all aspects as well. Degrees that are not economically rewarding are an impediment to that goal.

The recent happenings in the UK vis-a-vis ‘rip-off degrees’ hold valuable lessons for others. We need to act fast to ensure that not a single student from now onwards falls prey to a degree, that costs a fortune and doesn’t yield the desired outcomes, by concentrating our efforts on making education a transformative force for individuals and economies alike.

(Author is CEO and Co-Founder of Halp.co.)

US Stocks: Wall Street set for subdued open after Fed-driven selloff

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Wall Street’s main indexes were set for a muted open on Thursday as investors assessed the impact on U.S. economic growth from the Federal Reserve’s unwavering focus to rein in inflation through aggressive interest rate hikes.

The three main indexes finished more than 1.7% lower on Wednesday, with the Dow posting its lowest close since June 17. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 ended at their lowest point since July 1 and June 30, respectively.

Investors fear the aggressive path could add to volatility in stocks and bonds in a year that has already seen bear markets in both asset classes and could potentially cause an economic downturn.

Goldman Sachs, Barclays and a bunch of investment banks have raised their estimates for U.S. policy rates following Fed’s hawkish message, with Societe Generale economists also projecting a mild recession in early 2024.

“There are a lot of risks at this level, but the Fed has decided that they’re going to go the Volcker way, which is to stay the course and try to nip it now,” said Eric Schiffer, chief executive of PE firm Patriarch Organization in California.

Also Read: Infosys share price hits 52-week low tracking fall in US IT stocks, tanks 28% YTD; should you buy, sell, hold?

Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, suggesting the labor market remains tight.

“You’re not going to get unemployment to where it needs to be to get inflation in check unless (Fed) stays disciplined and there’s a period of pain in the short term for markets,” Schiffer added.

The benchmark S&P 500 is less than 4% away from its mid-June low, its weakest point of the year. Recent set of dismal outlooks from companies including FedEx Corp and Ford Motor Co have raised concerns about the health of corporate America.

“I definitely see the market testing the June lows … as indicated by the rise in the two-year yield, and the widening of the inversion of the two-year and 10-year yield curve,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

“The near-term catalyst (for the market) will be third-quarter earnings. If earnings don’t come in as bad as currently expected, that could be an initial support for the market.”

The closely watched yield curve inverted as much as minus 57.80 bps earlier in the day, the steepest inversion since June 2000, amplifying concerns about a recession in the next one to two years.

Rate-sensitive bank stocks edged higher in premarket trading, while heavyweights such as Tesla Inc, Microsoft Corp and Meta Platforms Inc were mixed.

At 8:36 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 66 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 3 points, or 0.08%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 11 points, or 0.09%.Salesforce Inc rose 2.8% after the enterprise software company set its fiscal year 2026 revenue target at $50 billion.

Eli Lilly and Co gained 2.2% after the U.S. FDA approved the company’s drug Retevmo for treatment of advanced tumor and non-small-cell lung cancers.

Darden Restaurants Inc fell 3.8% after the Olive Garden parent reported downbeat first-quarter sales.

Major output cut expectations uptick global crude prices ahead of OPEC+ meet

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Oil prices rose on Tuesday as expectations that OPEC+ may agree to a large cut in crude output on Wednesday offset concerns about the global economy. Brent crude was up 64 cents, or 0.7%, to $89.50 per barrel by 0823 GMT after gaining more than 4% in the previous session. U.S. crude futures rose 46 cents, or 0.6%, to $84.09 a barrel, having gained more than 5% in the previous session. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, is expected to cut output by more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) at their first in-person meeting since 2020 on Wednesday, according to OPEC sources.

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OPEC+ has boosted output this year after record cuts put in place in 2020 when the pandemic slashed demand. But in recent months, the organisation has failed to meet its planned output increases, missing in August by 3.6 million bpd. The production target cut being considered was justified by the sharp decline in oil prices from recent highs, said Goldman Sachs, adding that this reinforced its bullish outlook on oil. Oil prices have dropped for four straight months as COVID-19 lockdowns in top oil importer China curbed demand while interest rate hikes and a soaring U.S. dollar pressured global financial markets.

Major central banks have embarked on the most aggressive round of rate rises in decades, sparking fears of a global economic slowdown. However, Swiss lender UBS said going into the year-end it saw several bullish factors that could send crude prices higher, including “recovering Chinese demand, OPEC+ further supply cut, the end of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release and the upcoming EU ban on Russian crude exports.” U.S. crude oil stocks were estimated to have increased by around 2 million barrels in the week to Sept. 30, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Also Read: Rupee likely to remain steady amid positive cues; USDINR pair may trade sideways in this range

Gold, equity or debt? Here’s how retail investors should plan their investment portfolio for 2021 

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By R Venkataraman

As we approach the end of a somewhat difficult year, the common question running in investors mind is where to invest in 2021. I have always insisted that it is your financial goals, investment objectives and risk profile that are key factors for making an investment decision and arriving at your strategic asset allocation. Here is my outlook for the three common asset classes for 2021.  

Having the same expectations for CY2021, however, may lead to disappointment. This is because interest rate cycle has seemed to bottomed out and scope for further rate cuts is less because of rising inflation and higher government borrowing. In such a scenario it makes sense to gradually book profits from mutual funds holding long-dated bonds like gilt and long duration funds.

Though interest rates may not fall further, they are not expected to rise any time soon either. Investors may look at corporate FDs and secondary market bonds for chasing slightly higher returns (currently 6% to 7% p.a for AAA-rated FDs & bonds). However, such investors also need to consider the credit risk involved and should not go overboard. 7.15% RBI bond is another investment offering similar returns. Regular income instruments like Senior Citizen Saving Schemes, Post Office MIS currently offers 7.4% p.a & 6.6% p.a taxable interest respectively.

However, it is Sukanya Samriddhi Scheme, PPF & for employed – EPF offering tax-free returns of 7.6%, 7.1% & 8.5% that would score higher than most of above investments on parameters of safety, returns & tax efficiency, but the catch here is liquidity. For more liquid part of the debt portfolio, consider ultra-short-term and low duration mutual funds. 

Equity Investments: Since March lows, Indian indices are up by about 80%, driven by liquidity and low-interest rates. Liquidity, on account of massive fiscal stimulus by governments all over the world and monetary stimulus by global central banks has found its way to emerging markets. After initial gains in the indices led by safety sectors such as IT, Pharma and to some extent chemicals, telecom and FMCG and large-cap quality names such as reliance, now economy-related sectors have started participating in the rally as a vaccine is just around the corner and expected economic recovery. Banks the biggest beneficiaries of economic recovery, consumer discretionary, cyclicals, industrials and energy will do well. This trend is expected to continue in CY 2021 where you may see profit booking in defensives and money moving towards more economy-related themes.

Overall sectoral rotation that we have seen so far will continue into CY2021. In such a scenario multicap or flexi cap mutual funds that have the flexibility to invest across market cap & sectors can be good option for retail investors to take exposure to equity as rally gets more broad-based.

Value investing is another theme which would play out in the beginning of the coming year. Interest Is already seen in PSU space in this regard and couple of large AMCs have also raised money through NFOs of value funds to ride this theme.

Small and Mid-caps may very well make a comeback in CY 2021 as is also evident from their recent outperformance. They have severely underperformed large-cap indices since 2017, as the economy was in a mess even before pandemic & investors were staying away from them. Beaten down quality small caps available at good valuation compared to large caps sets up the stage for their comeback in CY 2021. 

Gold Investments: As a standard asset allocation, 10% to 12% of the portfolio is usually kept in gold as a hedge against riskier investments. Sovereign Gold bonds give 2.5% returns over and above gold price appreciation at the same time long term capital gains is exempt on maturity and hence is best way to take exposure to gold compared to any other physical, electronic or paper mode of holding gold.

Gold can provide a hedge, debt can provide safety, stability and liquidity.  With equity, retail investors should follow the mutual fund SIP route or invest in direct equity only with advise from qualified professional advisors.

(R Venkataraman is the Managing Director, IIFL Securities Ltd. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)