Month: January 2023

GAIL, Bombay Dyeing, HDFC, Avenue Supermarts, Nykaa, Vedanta, Dilip Buildcon stocks in focus

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Indian benchmark indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 are likely to open higher amid positive global cues. Ahead of the session, SGX Nifty was up in green, hinting at a positive start for domestic equity markets. “The pressure in the global indices, especially the US, is weighing on the sentiment and we feel the scenario would continue in absence of any major domestic trigger. A decisive breakdown below 16800 in Nifty could intensify the selling. Participants should stay light and prefer defensive viz. pharma and FMCG over others for long trades,” said Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking.

Stocks in focus on 4 October, Tuesday

Also Read: Strong credit ratings upgrades for Indian firms; these sectors climb up the most as credit quality improves

Housing Development Finance Corporation: HDFC said loans assigned in Q2FY23 stood at Rs 9,145 crore, up from Rs 7,132 crore in same period last year. All the loans assigned during the quarter were to HDFC Bank. Gross income from dividend for Q2 came in at Rs 1,360 crore and the profit on sale of investments was nil for the quarter.

Bombay Dyeing: The rights issue committee of Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company has considered and approved the draft letter of offer for the proposed Rs 940 crore, the company said in a BSE filing. On September 22, the company’s board had approved raising of funds through a rights issue of upto Rs 940 crore. The draft letter of offer dated October 3, 2022 will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), BSE and NSE.

Vedanta: The company said its alumina production at Lanjigarh refinery decreased by 11% on-year to 4.54 lakh tonnes due to scheduled maintenance, and at Zinc India, reported highest-ever second quarter mined metal production at 2.55 lakh tonnes, up 3 percent on-year, driven by better grades and improved mill recoveries. In the steel segment, its total saleable production increased by 11% on-year to 3.25 lakh tonnes on account of completion of debottlenecking activities in Q1FY23.

Nykaa: Nykaa’s board has approved issuance of bonus to its shareholders in proportion of 5:1, which means that for every one fully paid-up equity share held, a shareholder will get five fully paid-up shares of the company. The company has fixed November 3 as the record date to determine members eligible for bonus equity shares. The company, founded by Falguni Nayar, was listed on the exchanges on November 10 last year.

Avenue Supermarts: The D-Mart operator announced standalone revenue for the quarter ended September 2022 at Rs 10,384.66 crore, up significantly by 36% from Rs 7,649.64 crore in the same period last year. The total number of stores as of September 2022 stood at 302.

Also Read: Paytm share price rises 7% in 6 months, may rally this much more; JP Morgan bullish, should you buy?

Dilip Buildcon: The road construction company through its joint venture RBL-DBL has received a letter of acceptance (LOA) for its Surat Metro Rail Project in Gujarat. The order is worth Rs 1,061 crore.

Rupee likely to remain steady amid strong dollar, risk aversion in markets; USDINR pair to trade sideways

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The Indian rupee is expected to remain sideways on Friday amid falling crude prices, risk aversion in global equity markets and strong dollar. The USDINR pairpair is having resistance at 79.90 and 80.15, while the support has been shifted to 79.40 from 79.05, according to analysts. In the previous session, rupee declined due to strong demand for the U.S. dollar from oil companies, while markets braced for a big rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve next week. Firm American currency and a negative trend in domestic equities wieghed on the currency. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 79.53 per dollar, and settled at 79.73, down 21 paise over its previous close.

Also Read: Petrol, Diesel Price Today, 16 Sep 2022: Fuel cost static; check rates in Delhi, Noida, Mumbai, other cities

“Rupee on Thursday consolidated in a narrow a range and volatility remained low even after inflation number from the US and the UK came above estimates. The dollar was slightly higher following data showing U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rebounded in August. But gains for the dollar was restricted as data for July was revised downward to show retail sales declining instead of flat as previously reported. The greenback has been supported by the view that the Fed will keep tightening policy aggressively.”

“Yen was under pressure after a record Japanese trade deficit for August. The yen’s fall by nearly 20% over the past six months added to higher import costs, aggravating already high costs of energy and raw materials. The market remains choppy knowing that there’s a Fed meeting next week. Even though market participants agree that there could be a 75 basis points rate hike, it’s what the statement adds to previous commentary and what Chairman Powell says in his press conference. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 79.40 and 80.05.”

Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

“The Indian Rupee could fall lower following a weak handover from overseas. Overnight, we have seen risk-averse moods after mix bag of US economic data that backed the view of hawkish monetary policy. US Swaps traders are currently pricing in a 75 basis-point hike when the Fed meets next week. The weakness in the Chinese yuan which crosses the 7 could also weigh on other regional currencies.”

“Asian stocks headed for the fifth week of declines following more weakness in US equities and a surge in short-end Treasury yields that reflects expectations for outsized Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. On Thursday, spot USDINR gained 26 paise to 0.33% to 79.79 and heads for the first weekly gain after two weeks of fall. The technical set-up turned bullish after the past two days of price action. The pair is having resistance at 79.90 and 80.15 while the support has been shifted to 79.40 from 79.05.”

Also Read: Share Market LIVE: Nifty, Sensex likely to open in red amid weak global cues; last day of Harsha Engineers IPO

Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors

“Inflation in US and its strong consumer and labor markets are backing the Fed’s aggressive rate hike decision in the upcoming policy meet on 21st September. Markets have priced in fully the chance of an increase of 0.75 bps while the 30% see an increase of 1 full percentage rate hike as of today, all of which is supporting the strength in US dollar and shot US 10Y yields to a 52-week high yesterday. Here, the recent sharp appreciation in rupee near 79.00 levels has been quickly washed off for it to trade again back to near 79.80 levels.”

“It could be the influence of the strong dollar, weaker sentiments or weakening of the Chinese Yuan past 7.00 all negative factors weighing on rupee. The next move towards 79.95 and 80.10 is basically the RBI’s play as one needs to be cautious from the central bank intervention from the past two times. For now, the level of 80.10 remains a strong resistance for the USDINR pair, which haven’t been able to breach multiple times in the past though however posed the rest of the currencies are. Breaking of 80.10 could invite another upside move of 50 paisa to 1 rupee. On the flip side, 79.00 remains a strong support for the pair.”

(The recommendations in this story are by the respective research analysts and brokerage firms. FinancialExpress.com does not bear any responsibility for their investment advice. Capital markets investments are subject to rules and regulations. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)

Russia’s exclusion may pave way for India into global bond index

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India has the biggest bond market among emerging economies that’s not covered by global indexes, but bankers say that may change soon, potentially drawing in billions of dollars in inflows. Russia’s recent exclusion is one reason why. Morgan Stanley expects an announcement that India will be included in JPMorgan & Chase Co.’s emerging markets bond index as early as mid-September with the actual entry in the third quarter next year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees that announcement coming in the fourth quarter this year and inclusion in the second or third quarter in 2023. Both expect India’s weight at 10%, the maximum for a country in the index, and potential inflows of $30 billion from the move.

Getting high-yielding Indian sovereign bonds into global indexes would make it easier for overseas investors to put their money into Asia’s third-biggest economy with its $1 trillion debt market. It would follow many false starts over the years that resulted from wariness about debt inflows and disagreements including one on tax breaks for foreigners. Russia’s exclusion from the JPMorgan gauges after it invaded Ukraine may have added to incentives for the index compilers to fill the hole with Indian debt.

JPMorgan, one of the major index providers, has been collecting feedback from investors over including India in its Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets Global Diversified, or GBI-EM. More than 60% of real money investors are ready or almost ready for India’s inclusion, a Morgan Stanley survey showed. A spokesperson for JPMorgan in India declined to comment.

“India would offer much needed diversification to the GBI-EM index given the different structure of its economy, and so would be a strong addition to the index from a long-term perspective,” said Nivedita Sunil, portfolio manager for Asia and EM debt at Lombard Odier (Singapore) Ltd. “We have held consultations with the index provider and we are broadly supportive of it.”

Bond traders in India have had their hopes dashed in the past on index inclusion. There were widespread expectations in February that the government would announce a tax break for foreign investors in the budget that would facilitate trading of the nation’s debt on platforms such as Euroclear.

Dashed Expectations

Instead, the budget was silent on the issue. Officials have said they decided not to exempt international bond transactions from taxes, and they would like settlement of bonds to be done locally. “India has its own size and heft to act on its own,” said Aninda Mitra, head of Asia macro and investment strategy at BNY Mellon Investment Management. “But it is important to make a strategic decision and stick with it, rather than send out conflicting signals.”

Meanwhile, in the GBI-EM index Russia had a weight of about 8% before it was removed, and now there are seven countries with a weight of 10% each and 13 countries sharing the remaining 30%, according to the Morgan Stanley note. “The exclusion of Russia has made the index more concentrated and unbalanced,” Morgan Stanley strategists Min Dai, Madan Reddy and Gek Teng Khoo wrote in a note early September. “Hence JPMorgan has more incentive to include India even without Euroclear, as long as GBI-EM investors don’t object to that.”

India is currently ‘on track’ to be placed on index watch for inclusion in JPMorgan’s bond index, according to the bank. It’s also on the FTSE Russell watch list to get into its emerging market debt index. Bloomberg LP is the parent company of Bloomberg Index Services Ltd, which administers indexes that compete from those by other service providers. Renewed market talk on index inclusion helped revive flows into rupee-denominated bonds last month after six continuous months of outflows. Foreign inflows will be crucial to meet the nation’s ever-growing bond supply as its funding needs expand.

Also Read: Petrol and Diesel Price Today, 9 Sep 2022: Fuel cost steady; Check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, Noida, other cities

Authorities have taken some steps to ease rules for foreigners. Recent regulations like allowing custodian banks to pre-fund trades on behalf of foreign investors and extended settlement timings are examples, according to Goldman Sachs. Still, key issues remain. “We think the two biggest operational challenges are account opening time and the burdensome trading requirements,” said Eric Lo, a fixed-income fund manager at Manulife Investment Management. He said it can take up to nine months to open a local India bond trading account, but operational constraints like those aren’t a “show stopper” for the firm to invest in the market.

Gadarwara Madhya Pradesh Assembly Constituency Election 2023: Date of Result, Voting, Counting; Candidates

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Gadarwara MP Assembly Election 2023 Details: The election for Gadarwara Assembly Constituency in Madhya Pradesh will be held on November 17 this year. The final date of voting and result were known after the formal announcement by the Election Commission of India. Here are the important details of the Gadarwara Constituency Assembly Election 2023 that you should know.

Gadarwara Constituency Madhya Pradesh Assembly Election 2023: Voting Date

November 17 is the date of voting for the Gadarwara Assembly Constituency Election 2023 as announced by the Election Commission of India.

Gadarwara Constituency Madhya Pradesh Election 2023: Candidates List

Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), Congress and other political parties in the state will announce their candidates for the Gadarwara Assembly Constituency Election 2023 after the announcement of voting dates by the Election Commission of India.

Why Gadarwara Constituency Assembly Election 2023 is Important

Gadarwara is a state Assembly/Vidhan Sabha constituency in the state of Madhya Pradesh and is part of the Gadarwara Lok Sabha/Parliamentary constituency. Gadarwara falls in the Gadarwara district of Madhya Pradesh and is categorised as an urban seat.

Gadarwara Constituency MP Election Result: What happened in 2018

Suneeta Patel of the Indian National Congress was the winning candidate from the Gadarwara constituency in the MP Assembly elections 2018, securing 79342 votes while 63979 votes were polled in favour of Gautam Singh Patel of the Bharatiya Janata Party. The margin of victory was 15363 votes.

2018 Gadarwara Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesSuneeta PatelIndian National Congress79342

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) Suneeta Patel Indian National Congress 79342 (50.75%) Gautam Singh Patel Bharatiya Janata Party 63979 (40.93%) None Of The Above None Of The Above 3759 (2.4%) Arya Ravi Parihar Independent 2224 (1.42%) Omshankar Singh Rajput Bhartiya Shakti Chetna Party 1708 (1.09%) Rewaram Paranchey Gondvana Gantantra Party 1634 (1.05%) Rajaram Baghel Bahujan Samaj Party 1141 (0.73%) Rakesh Chouksey Independent 813 (0.52%) Chhela Babu (tejram) Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal 523 (0.33%) Reena Lamaniya Aam Aadmi Party 493 (0.32%) Kapil Dubey Bablu Maharaj Shiv Sena 404 (0.26%) Rajesh Ahirwar Bahujan Sangharshh Dal 312 (0.2%)

Gadarwara Constituency MP Election Result: What happened in 2013

Govind Singh Patel of the Bharatiya Janata Party was the winning candidate from the Gadarwara constituency in the MP Assembly elections 2013, securing 61202 votes while 35889 votes were polled in favour of Suneeta Patel of the Independent. The margin of victory was 25313 votes.

2013 Gadarwara Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesGovind Singh PatelBharatiya Janata Party61202

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) Govind Singh Patel Bharatiya Janata Party 61202 (43.88%) Suneeta Patel Independent 35889 (25.73%) Sadhana Sthapak Indian National Congress 27789 (19.92%) None Of The Above None Of The Above 5460 (3.91%) Poonam Singh Bharve Gondvana Gantantra Party 4029 (2.89%) B S Parihar Bahujan Samaj Party 2108 (1.51%) Aary Ravi Parihar Independent 1620 (1.16%) Om Shanker Singh Rajput Urf Kattar Bhaiya Bhartiya Shakti Chetna Party 1382 (0.99%)

Gadarwara Constituency MP Election Result: What happened in 2008

Smt Sadhana Sthapak of the INC was the winning candidate from the Gadarwara constituency in the MP Assembly elections 2008, securing 35895 votes while 29792 votes were polled in favour of Govind Singh Patel of the BJP. The margin of victory was 6103 votes.

2008 Gadarwara Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesSmt Sadhana SthapakINC35895

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) Smt Sadhana Sthapak INC 35895 (32.71%) Govind Singh Patel BJP 29792 (27.15%) Sunita Patel IND 26756 (24.38%) Pandit Deen Dayal Dhimole BSP 6416 (5.85%) Poonam Singh Bharwe GGP 3326 (3.03%) Jagmohan Singh Mariya BJSH 1659 (1.51%) Thakur Gangaram Marshkole GMS 1203 (1.1%) Aram Bai Kourav Urf Kakki IND 1180 (1.08%) Pandit Vishwa Bhushan PRBP 1157 (1.05%) Mukesh Mehra SHS 709 (0.65%) Sudama Prasad Kourav RSMD 609 (0.55%) Nagin Kochar JD(U) 595 (0.54%) Mahendra Raikwar SP 447 (0.41%)

Wall Street tests June lows on recession worries

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Wall Street‘s main indexes fell on Friday as investors fretted over the prospect of an economic downturn and a hit to corporate earnings from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive policy tightening moves to quell inflation.

The Dow breached its mid-June lows on an intraday basis to touch 29,643.93 points and hit a near-two year low.

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are already in bear market and down more than 22% and 30%, respectively, so far this year, amid worries about a host of issues including the Ukraine conflict and tightening financial conditions across the globe.

The U.S. central bank raised rates by a widely expected 75 basis points on Wednesday and signaled a longer trajectory for policy rates, dashing hopes that the Fed expects to get inflation under control in the near term.

Also read: Sensex, Nifty erase all yearly gains; Nifty support at 17166, investors poorer by Rs 5 lakh crore

“The most recent Fed actions leave us with the feeling that the end of the rate rises is not near,” said Rick Meckler, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey.

“There is very little positive news right now and it could lead to a sort of a final selloff … it’s certainly possible that we could be approaching the near-term lows.”

Dire outlooks from a handful of companies – most recently FedEx Corp and Ford Motor Co – have also added to woes in a seasonally weak period for markets.

Goldman Sachs cut its year-end 2022 target for the benchmark S&P 500 index by about 16% to 3,600 points, a 2.5% decline from current levels.

At 10:08 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 408.50 points, or 1.36%, at 29,668.18, the S&P 500 was down 65.07 points, or 1.73%, at 3,692.92, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 220.27 points, or 1.99%, at 10,846.54.

All the three indexes were set for sharp weekly losses.

Also read: Nifty turns negative for 2022, Sensex falls 1.5%, Bank Nifty tumbles 3%; what is dragging markets today?

Technology and growth stocks slid with megacap names including Alphabet Inc, Apple Inc, Amazon.com , Microsoft Corp and Tesla Inc all down more than 1%.

All the 11 major S&P sectors declined in early trading, led by a 5.6% drop in energy shares. Banks fell 1.6%.

Costco Wholesale Corp shed 2.4% after the big-box retailer reported a fall in its fourth-quarter profit margins.

The CBOE volatility index, also known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, rose to 28.72 points.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to give opening remarks on the transition to a post-pandemic economy at an event at 2 p.m. ET.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 11.33-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 6.67-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P index recorded no new 52-week high and 125 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded seven new highs and 558 new lows.

Petrol, Diesel Price Today, 23 Sep 2022: Fuel cost static; check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, Noida, other cities

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Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Lucknow: The price of petrol and diesel has been kept steady on 23 September 2022 (Friday), keeping costs steady for more than three months now. Petrol rate and diesel rate in Delhi are at Rs 96.72 and Rs 89.62 a litre, respectively. In Mumbai, petrol is retailing at Rs 106.31 per litre and diesel at Rs 94.27 per litre. The last country-wide change in price came on 21 May 2022, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a cut in excise duty on petrol by Rs 8 per litre and Rs 6 per litre on diesel. Since then, Maharashtra is the only state to have cut rates. The Maharashtra government had announced a cut in value-added tax (VAT) on petrol by Rs 5 a litre and by Rs 3 a litre for diesel in July.

Also read: Reliance New Energy to acquire 20% stake in solar tech company Caelux Corp to produce low cost solar modules

Also read: Rupee likely to depreciate on strong dollar, risk aversion in markets, weak Asian peers; USDINR may hit 81

Petrol, diesel prices in Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Lucknow, Noida, Gurugram

Mumbai: Petrol price: Rs 106.31 per litre, Diesel price: 94.27 per litre

Delhi: Petrol price: Rs 96.72 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 89.62 per litre

Chennai: Petrol price: Rs 102.63 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 94.24 per litre

Kolkata: Petrol price: Rs 106.03 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 92.76 per litre

Bengaluru: Petrol: Rs 101.94 per litre, Diesel: Rs 87.89 per litre

Lucknow: Petrol: Rs 96.57 per litre, Diesel: Rs 89.76 per litre

Noida: Petrol: Rs 96.79 per litre, Diesel: Rs 89.96 per litre

Gurugram: Petrol: Rs 97.18 per litre, Diesel: Rs 90.05 per litre

Chandigarh: Petrol: Rs 96.20 per litre, Diesel: Rs 84.26 per litre

Public sector OMCs including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) revise the fuel prices daily in line with international benchmark prices and foreign exchange rates. Any changes in petrol and diesel prices are implemented from 6 am every day. Retail petrol and diesel prices differ from state to state because of local taxes like VAT or freight charges.

FPIs infuse Rs 5,600 crore in Indian equities in September so far 

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Foreign investors have pumped in close to Rs 5,600 crore into the domestic equity markets in this month so far on expected growth in consumer spending in festive season and better macro fundamentals compared to other emerging markets.

This comes following a net investment of staggering Rs 51,200 crore in August and nearly Rs 5,000 crore in July, data with depositories showed.

Also Read|Tax appellate tribunal ruling: FPI income not subject to MAT provisions

Between October 2021 and June 2022, they sold a massive Rs 2.46 lakh crore in the India equity markets.

V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said the trend of FPI flows into India is likely to continue. However, if US bond yields continue to rise and the dollar index rises above 110, inflows may be impacted.

“I feel FPIs will continue buying Indian equities irrespective of the US Fed outcome,” Jay Prakash Gupta, founder, Dhan, said.

According to data with depositories, FPIs pumped a net amount of Rs 5,593 crore in Indian equities during September 1-9 .

“FPIs are buying in India because India has the best growth and earnings story among large economies in the world. US, Euro zone and China are slowing down. India is the bright spot,” Vijayakumar said.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head – Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities, said the Indian markets were buoyed by falling prices and a decline in domestic bond yields.

“With falling crude oil prices, expected growth in consumer spending in coming festive season, better macro fundamentals compared to other emerging markets will definitely provide the tailwind for India,” Gupta said.

In addition, exodus of investments from Russia is finding an alternative in India and funds are looking at diversifying investments away from China are the factors which have prompted resumption of FPI inflows in Indian equities, Hitesh Jain, Lead Analyst – Institutional Equities, Yes Securities, said.

Also Read| Worst over for Dalal Street now as FIIs return, bet on auto sector, private banks | Emkay INTERVIEW

Foreign investors will be eyeing Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcome due on September 21 and Fed is likely to increase interest rates by 75 basis points.

US inflation slowed down from a 40-year high in June to 8.5 per cent in July on lower gasoline prices. In India, the consumer price index-based retail inflation marginally eased to 6.71 per cent in July as against 7.01 per cent recorded in June due to fall of food prices.

Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director – Manager Research, Morningstar India, said FPIs’ stance and outlook towards India started to change mid-July expecting that global central banks, particularly US Fed, may go slow on rate hikes as the inflation starts to cool off.

Also, Indian equities went through a correction phase making them relatively attractive on valuations.

FPIs used this opportunity to hand-picked high-quality companies and invest in them. They are now buying stocks of financials, healthcare, FMCG and telecom.

According to Yes Securities’ Jain, FPIs are pouring money in domestic facing sectors like banks and consumption stocks which are immune to global shocks, and traction is apparent in terms of India’s credit growth and consumer spending.

In addition, FPIs infused a net amount of Rs 158 crore in the debt market during the month under review.

Apart from India, other emerging markets, including South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia,Thailand and Philippines, too witnessed inflows during the period under review.

Sensex, Nifty surge 12% YTD in 2020, follow Wall Street gains; will it repeat 2020 rally next year?

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By Prem Prakash

The calendar year 2020 has been one of the most volatile years for stock markets and one which market participants are going to remember for a long-long time. It was a year which was full of surprises and would be remembered for a lot of things including the pace with which the pandemic accelerated, the scale of the lockdowns, the government stimulus initiatives, and the magnitude of stock market rebounds.

With respect to the economic activities and GDP growth, India’s GDP contracted by around 24% in the first quarter which was one of the worst among all the major economies across the globe. However, it was also because, to control the spread of COVID-19, India had imposed one of the strictest lockdowns across the world. Also, GDP numbers for Q2 surprised everyone and albeit negative, it was way better than what most of the people estimated. In Q2, India’s GDP contracted by 7.5% and now the expectation is that India’s GDP growth would turn positive in Q3 itself.

India has officially entered recession (as two successive quarters of GDP contraction is termed as a recession) after the declaration of the GDP numbers for the Q2. And as of now, we are in the early stage of the post-recession recovery. This suggests a prolonged period of low-interest-rate growth that favors equities over the bond market. However, we may not witness a similar kind of rally in the stock market as it was in 2020, but the overall trend may continue to be bullish. In the short term, we may face some uncertainty due to the new strains of Corona Virus in the European countries, geopolitical issues in China, Iran, and Russia. Also, the market will keenly observe how the distribution and logistics for the vaccine happens and what is the effectiveness of the vaccine in controlling further spread of COVID-19. All these might lead to a roller coaster ride for the markets in the first half of 2021. However, with the companies posting better results every quarter, we can expect India to post positive GDP numbers in 2021 and markets to respond cheerfully to such performance.

The major event which everyone is looking forward to in 2021 is the announcement of the general budget on 1st February. The government has got a daunting task for the budget with fiscal deficit shooting up to around 7.5% of the GDP.

Considering the recent sharp rally in equity markets, investors should adopt utmost caution while investing. They should do a thorough analysis of their investment objective, time horizon, risk appetite and then plan their investments.

(Prem Prakash is the CEO at CapitalVia Global Research Ltd. – Investment Advisor. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)

MCX Crude oil October futures to trade in Rs 6400-7300/bbl range this week; OPEC+ meeting eyed

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By Royce Varghese

WTI Crude oil futures fell for the fourth consecutive month in September, down by more than 11% and closed below $80 per bbl, pressured by mounting fears of a demand-sapping global recession. The black gold also witnessed the first quarterly decline in 2 years and down more than 25% in the previous quarter, giving away all the war premium, on fears of demand destruction from aggressive central bank tightening and a surging dollar index.

Also Read: Petrol, Diesel Price Today, 4 October 2022: Fuel prices unchanged; check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, other cities

US shale production is not rising significantly despite a government push to increase the output. Crude output was mostly hovering near 12.1 mbpd in September, however, it fell to 12.1 mbpd in the previous week. Inflation and supply-chain delays play a major role in hampering production and expansion.

Outlook: OPEC+ set to deliver the biggest output cut since the pandemic

Oil prices might have bottomed for now as supply concerns are going to rise in the coming months. OPEC+ alliance is considering slashing production by more than 1 million barrels a day to revive plunging prices when it meets on 5th October. A reduction of that magnitude would be the biggest since the pandemic and might put a floor on oil prices. The OPEC+ gathering in Vienna will be the cartel’s first in-person meeting since the pandemic. In addition, ministers plan to hold a press conference after their session.

US SPR release is also nearing an end in late October, which accounted for almost 1 mbpd of global supply since May. Together, halting SPR release and output cut from OPEC+ might add to more than 2% of global output, which is going to vanish from November onwards. Chinese demand might also increase as few Chinese state oil refineries consider increasing runs by up to 10% in October, on prospects of more robust demand and a possible surge in fourth-quarter fuel exports.

Also Read: Aggressive monetary tightening by RBI continues: Can NBFCs stay resilient?

Having said that, US Labour market data can be closely watched for more cues on Fed’s rate hike path. In case data surprises on the upside, we might see a dollar rally on prospects of aggressive rate hikes from the Fed, which might limit the upside in oil prices. We expect MCX Crude oil October futures to trade in the range of Rs 6,400 – 7,300 per bbl for the week, with an upward bias.

(Royce Varghese, Fundamental Analyst, Currency & Energy, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. Views expressed are the author’s own.)

Markets to take cues from macro data, global trends: Analysts

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Trading in the domestic equity market this week will be largely driven by a host of macroeconomic data announcements and global trends, analysts said.

Industrial production data for July and inflation rate for August are scheduled to be announced on Monday. Besides, wholesale price index (WPI) inflation data will be released on Wednesday.

Also Read| MCX Crude oil September futures: Go long for expected target of Rs 7000/bbl; MCX prices may see correction

Other major factors that would influence trading are foreign fund movement and trend in the rupee against the US dollar.

“Global markets will keenly await the inflation numbers of the US. This data will be closely watched by international markets since it will affect how the Fed will proceed with future rate hikes,” said Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives, Samco Securities.

The volatility in oil prices and USD-INR trend will be important factors that may affect the market, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail) at Kotak Securities.

Last week, the Sensex advanced 989.81 points or 1.68 per cent, while the Nifty gained 293.90 points or 1.67 per cent.

“We maintain our bullish view on markets,” said Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Also Read| Petrol and Diesel Price Today, 10 Sep 2022: Fuel prices unchanged; Check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, other cities

“As we’re seeing buying interest across the board, the focus should be more on the best-performing sectors viz banking, financials, auto and FMCG, and remain selective in the others,” Mishra added.