Month: January 2023

Share Market HIGHLIGHTS: Sensex ends 509 pts down, Nifty at 16858 ahead of monthly F&O expiry; Reliance drags

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Share Market News Today | Sensex, Nifty, Share Prices HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic equity market benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 ended one per cent lower on Wednesday, one day ahead of weekly and monthly F&O expiry. BSE Sensex plunged 509 points or nearly 1 per cent to 56,598, while NSE Nifty 50 crashed 0.9 per cent or 149 points to settle at 16589. Stocks of Asian Paints, Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy’s, Power Grid Corporation of India, Nestle India, Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL), M&M, and HCL Tech among others capped the losses in the index. On the flip side, ITC, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, HDFC Bank and others were top index drags. Bank Nifty index fell 1.6 per cent to end at 37760.

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Share Market Today | Sensex, Nifty, BSE, NSE, Share Prices, Stock Market News Updates

15:38 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 BSE Sensex, NSE Nifty 50 plunge 1% ahead of monthly F&O expiry

BSE Sensex plunged 509 points or nearly 1 per cent to 56,598, while NSE Nifty 50 crashed 0.9 per cent or 149 points to settle at 16,589

15:05 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Major headwinds for Indian economy; RBI intervention to curb rupee fall, slowing exports may derail recovery

The global growth slowdown may weigh on the Indian economy going forward, through not just exports, but prices and liquidity as well. This would weigh on domestic credit and capex recovery, and the impact could be more on organised businesses and nominal variables such as taxes, earnings as they are more vulnerable to global slowdown, Edelweiss said in a research note. Globally, food prices remain elevated owing to drought-like conditions. Read full story

14:32 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Limited intervention by RBI leading to selling spree in Rupee

Most of the Asian currencies, including the local unit, are reeling under pressure amid the monetary tightening campaign in the West and concerns about a global economic slowdown. Limited intervention by the RBI amid declining forex reserves is also leading to the current bout of selling spree witnessed in the Indian rupee. However, softening crude prices and strong underlying fundamentals of the domestic economy shall underpin the rupee-dollar exchange rate around the 82 to the dollar mark. All eyes are now on the RBI monetary policy outcome for further cues. Sugandha Sachdeva, Vice President – Commodity and Currency Research, Religare Broking

14:24 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Aggressive rate hikes could prove counterproductive in the short run: Emkay Wealth

Emkay Wealth Management held a media webinar ‘Mediascape Q2’ today – a discussion on the importance of asset allocation, rising opportunities in Fixed Income and Debt Funds in a rising interest rate scenario. Emkay Wealth Management is currently offering bespoke services to over 1,600 families to date. The unit posted revenue of Rs 14.78 crore in FY22.

13:33 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Realty stocks rise

BSE Realty index rose 0.5 percent led by Indiabulls Real Estate, Godrej Properties, Brigade Enterprises

13:31 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 BHEL receives order, stock rises 2%

Bharat Heavy Electrical has received order for setting up the 2×660 MW Talcher thermal power project Stage-III on EPC (engineering, procurement & construction) basis from NTPC.

12:50 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Govt further extends deadline for broken rice export in-transit before ban

The central government, on Tuesday, further extended the deadline to October 15 for the in-transit stock of broken rice. The Centre had imposed a ban on the export of broken rice, effective from September 9. The notification regarding the ban was issued on September 8, which mentioned that certain broken rice shipments will be immune to the ban during the period September 9 to September 15. The deadline for the same was recently extended to September 30. Now in a notification issued by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade, the deadline has seen an extension of 15 days. The notification comes into force with immediate effect. Read full story

12:45 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Nifty, Sensex trade flat

Domestic equity markets trimmed early losses and were fluctuating between green and red in noon deals. Declining risk appetite, lower crude prices, and fresh bets in index heavyweights like Dr Reddy’s, Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints helped erase losses. NSE Nifty 50 traded flat above 17,000 levels, whereas the S&P BSE Sensex gained over 50 points to trade at reclaim 57000. Sectorally, Nifty Auto and Nifty Realty indices gained over 1 per cent Nifty Energy and Nifty Bank indices, however, remained bogged down.

12:43 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Buy Reliance Industries stock: RIL share may soar above Rs 2600; charts signal technical pullback in near-term

Reliance Industries share price is likely to gain 9 per cent to Rs 2,615 apiece in near-term, as the stock has been witnessing buying demand from the key support area of Rs 2300-2370 for the third time since May 2022, analysts at ICICI direct Research said. It expects the RIL stock to witness a gradual pullback from the current oversold territory, thus offering a fresh entry opportunity with a favourable risk-reward set up. On Wednesday, RIL shares were trading 1.7 per cent down at Rs 2,354.05 apiece on BSE. The stock is down nearly 18 per cent from the all-time highs, hit in April this year. Read full story

11:56 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Gold Price Today, 28 Sep 2022: Gold, silver rates fall on strong US Dollar, weak cues; MCX support at Rs 48500

Gold Price Today, Gold Price Outlook, Gold Price Forecast: Gold rate and silver rate were trading weak on Wednesday, on the back of strong US Dollar. On Multi Commodity Exchange, gold October futures were trading Rs 99 or 0.2 per cent down at Rs 49,220 per 10 gram. Silver December futures were ruling Rs 581 or 1.05 per cent down at Rs 54,798 per kg. Globally, yellow metal prices slipped as the dollar resumed climbing after Federal Reserve officials reiterated the US central bank’s resolution to maintain an aggressive policy stance to tackle soaring inflation. Read full story

11:36 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Delhi HC grants statutory bail to former NSE CEO Chitra Ramkrishna

Delhi High Court grants statutory bail to former NSE CEO Chitra Ramkrishna and former NSE Operating Officer Anand Subramanian in co-location case.

11:18 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Sell-off continues; Nifty, Sensex in red

The Sensex is down 137.92 points or 0.24 percent at 56,969.60. Nifty is down 45.70 points or 0.27 percent at 16961.70.

11:18 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Shriram Transport Finance Corporation to consider fundraising on October 31

Shriram Transport Finance Corporation will consider raising of funds by way of issue of redeemable non-convertible debt securities including bonds in onshore, offshore market on private placement basis, subject to market conditions and in this regard, the meeting(s) of the concerned committees viz. the Banking and Finance Committee, Debt Issuance Committee and Allotment Committee- NCDs will be held to consider and approve the issue and allotment of redeemable non-convertible debt securities/bonds during the month ending October 31, 2022 as per their respective terms of reference, subject to such terms and conditions including the issue price of debt securities/ bonds, as the said committees may deem fit.

11:11 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Consolidation in Rupee to benefit importers if it tests 80 levels over short-term

“Rupee technically has depreciated 3.80% from 79 levels which was recently tested. I think Rupee will take support of 82 and remain in the range of 82-80 levels. This consolidation will benefit the importers if it tests 80 levels over short term.”

~Megh Mody – Commodities and Currencies Research Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd

10:47 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 RBI MPC likely to hike repo rate by 50 bps again; commentary on liquidity, rupee depreciation keenly eyed

The RBI is expected to deliver a 50 bps rate hike in its September Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The half a percentage point hike is expected as the Reserve Bank of India catches up with global central banks in not just fighting inflation, but also to stem rupee depreciation. RBI has already used up $100 billion in reserves to stabilise the local currency. “While this hike may help in allaying macrostability concerns, it would negatively affect the business cycle as nascent economic recovery may not be able to absorb such tightening of financial conditions,” said Edelweiss Securities in its report.

Read full story

10:45 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Nifty 50 rejig: Adani Enterprises replaces Shree Cement; IRCTC, Adani Total Gas, HAL enter Nifty Next 50

Gautam Adani-led Adani Enterprises will become part of Nifty 50 from Friday, 30 September, in NSE’s upcoming semi-annual index rejig. Adani Enterprises will replace Shree Cement from the 50-stock index. This is the second Adani stock to be included in the Nifty 50 index after Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone. Apart from Nifty 50, changes have been announced in Nifty Next 50, and Nifty IT. Adani group has seven established listed entities, including Adani Green Energy, Adani Power, Adani Total Gas, Adani Transmission, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Adani Wilmar, and Adani Enterprises. Read full story

10:15 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Rupee fall to new low

Rupee hits fresh record low of 81.93 to a dollar amid slump in global markets. “Rupee has been holding remarkably well with RBI intervention supporting the market. We believe that it might be better for the RBI to allow the rupee to depreciate a bit, finding its natural balance,” said SBI Ecowrap in a note.

10:11 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Metals stocks drag

Nifty metal index shed 0.5 per cent, dragged by the SAIL India, Vedanta, Jindal Stainless

10:08 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Suzlon Energy rights issue to open on October 11; share price falls 2%

Suzlon Energy rights issue to open on October 11, 2022 and will close on October 20, 2022. The Record date is 4 October for the purpose of determining the equity shareholders entitled to receive the rights entitlement in the rights issue.

09:54 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 LIC picks additional 2.01% stake in BPCL

Life Insurance Corporation of India has acquired an additional 2.01% stake in Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd via open market transactions. With this, its shareholding in the company increased to 9.04%, up from 7.03% earlier.

09:38 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Brace for more corrections

“IT is likely to remain resilient supported by currency tailwinds. Autos and capital goods can be slowly accumulated on declines. Since valuations in India continue to be high relative to peers, investors may brace for more corrections in this bearish scenario. A sharp turnaround in global market sentiments will happen only when data indicate a decline in US inflation.”

~VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services

09:36 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Market texture changes to ‘Sell on rally’

“Globally equity markets are in bear territory. India is a distinct outlier with only 8.5% decline from the peak in Nifty. India can remain an outperformer supported by its strong fundamentals but India cannot remain immune to major global trends. The texture of the market has changed from ‘buy on dips’ to ‘sell on rally’ and therefore, investors have to be cautious in the market now. The Bank Nifty has sharply corrected by 8% from its recent record high and is weak now.”

~VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services

09:32 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Torrent Pharma shares fall 3%, company to acquire Curatio Healthcare

Torrent Pharmaceuticals has acquired Curatio Healthcare, which has a strong presence in the cosmetic dermatology segment with a portfolio of over 50 brands, for Rs 2,000 crore. It has entered into definitive agreements to acquire 100% in Curatio which reported revenue for FY21-22 at Rs 224 crore.

09:20 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Nifty above 16940 may hit 17200, momentum indicators signal possibility of pullback rally; Buy Cipla, LTI

We are of the view that, the bearish sentiment in the market is still intact and a fresh pullback rally is possible, if Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex succeed to trade above the 200 day SMA (Simple Moving average) or 16940/56950. Above which, indices could retest the level of 17150-17200/57500-57700. On the flip side, below 16940/56950, these could slip till 16850-16800/56600-56500. The intraday texture of the market is non-directional, hence level based trading would be the ideal strategy for the day traders. Read full story

09:19 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Rupee hits new lifetime low, nears 82 mark on strong dollar, weak markets; USDINR support at 81

The Indian Rupee fell to a fresh lifetime low of 81.90 in opening trade on Wednesday amid strong dollar, FII outflows, and risk-off sentiments in equity markets. The delay in Indian bond inclusion in the JP Morgan bond index also likely weighed on the local unit. In the previous session, rupee weakened past the 81.60 mark. On the flow side, there has been notable outflow since Fed’s hike day. Read full story

09:08 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Sensex, Nifty fall 1% in pre-open on Wednesday

BSE Sensex tanks 480 points or 0.8 per cent to trade at 56,628, while NSE Nifty 50 plunged 157 points or 0.9 per cent to 16,850

08:58 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Petrol, Diesel Price Today, 28 Sep 2022: Fuel cost static; check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, Noida, other cities

Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Lucknow: The price of petrol and diesel has been kept steady on 28 September 2022 (Wednesday), keeping costs steady for more than three months now. The petrol rate and diesel rates in Delhi are at Rs 96.72 and Rs 89.62 a litre, respectively. In Mumbai, petrol is retailing at Rs 106.31 per litre and diesel at Rs 94.27 per litre. The last country-wide change in price came on 21 May 2022, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a cut in excise duty on petrol by Rs 8 per litre and Rs 6 per litre on diesel. Read full story

08:58 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Bank Nifty support at 37800, resistance at 38750

“Benchmark Indices are expected to open on a negative note today as suggested by trends on SGX Nifty. Some stock-specific actions can be witnessed in stocks such as Torrent Pharma, KPI Green Energy, and Motherson Sumi Wiring. On the technical front, Immediate support and resistance in Nifty 50 are 16800 and 17200 respectively. Bank Nifty immediate support and resistance are 37800 and 38750 respectively.”

~Mohit Nigam, Head – PMS, Hem Securities

08:56 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Markets may witness some consolidation

“Markets may witness some consolidation or pause after the recent decline however mixed trends across sectors would continue to offer trading opportunities across the board. Besides, the beginning of the MPC meet and global cues would keep the volatility high. We feel it’s prudent to continue with the defensive pack for long trades until we see some stability.”

~Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking

08:36 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Will bears drag Nifty to 16800 amid high volatility, uncertainty? 5 things to know before market opening bell

The sell-off in the domestic share market is likely to continue as SGX Nifty hinted at a gap-down open for NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex with a loss of 101 pts or 0.5%. “We expect market volatility to continue until RBI MPC outcome and monthly derivatives expiry. We expect stock related to domestic consumption to perform well with strong festive season. Also sectors like Paint, FMCG would see momentum on the back of sharp fall in crude oil prices,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Read full story

08:06 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Stocks in focus today

Reliance: Reliance Retail announced the opening of its fashion & lifestyle departmental store, Reliance Centro.

Adani Group stocks: The Adani Group will invest $100 billion over the next decade in new energy and digital spaces, which includes data centres.

HCL Technologies: HCL Technologies launched its new logo and brand identity.

Torrent Pharma: Torrent Pharmaceuticals on Tuesday said it will wholly acquire Curatio Healthcare for Rs 2,000 crore.

Read full story

08:00 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Downtrend in Nifty may have halted temporarily

“On Tusday, Nifty took support from the upgap of 16947 and closed flat after making a lower low compared to the previous day. The downtrend in the Nifty may have halted temporarily, though it needs to close above 17196 for confirmation. On falls, 16942 will be watched closely,”

~ Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities

07:59 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 SGX Nifty hints at a negative start for Indian equities

Trends in SGX Nifty indicated at a gap-down opening for Indian equities. The Nifty futures were trading around 16,937 levels, down around 100 pts or 0.5% on the Singaporean exchange.

07:50 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 Asian markets tepid

Shares in the Asia-Pacific traded mixed at the open on Wednesday after the S&P 500 set a new 2022 low overnight on Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.68 per cent, while the Topix index slipped 0.67 per cent. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.18 per cent. The Kospi in South Korea shed 0.43 per cent.

07:49 (IST) 28 Sep 2022 US stocks tumble

The S&P 500 fell to its lowest level in almost two years on Tuesday on worries about super aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening, trading under its June trough and leaving investors appraising how much further stocks would have to fall before stabilizing. The S&P 500 touched a session low of 3,623.29, its lowest point on an intraday basis since November 30, 2020. A late rally helped push the index off its worst level of the day, but the index still closed lower for a sixth straight session as it lost 7.75 points, or 0.21%, to 3,647.29 .

Petrol, Diesel Price Today, 12 Sep 2022: Fuel cost steady, check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, Noida, other cities

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Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Lucknow: The price of petrol and diesel has been kept steady on 12 September 2022 (Monday), keeping costs steady for more than three months now. Petrol and diesel in Delhi is priced at Rs 96.72 and Rs 89.62 a litre, respectively. In Mumbai, petrol is retailing at Rs 106.31 per litre and diesel at Rs 94.27 per litre. The last country-wide change in price came on 21 May 2022, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a cut in excise duty on petrol by Rs 8 per litre, and Rs 6 per litre on diesel. Since then, Maharashtra is the only state to have cut rates. The Maharashtra government had announced a cut in value-added tax (VAT) on petrol by Rs 5 a litre and by Rs 3 a litre for diesel in July.

Also read:CPI inflation likely to reverse 3-month downtrend in Aug on high food prices; WPI seen in double-digits

Petrol, diesel prices in Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Lucknow, Noida, Gurugram

Mumbai: Petrol price: Rs 106.31 per litre, Diesel price: 94.27 per litre

Delhi: Petrol price: Rs 96.72 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 89.62 per litre

Chennai: Petrol price: Rs 102.63 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 94.24 per litre

Kolkata: Petrol price: Rs 106.03 per litre, Diesel price: Rs 92.76 per litre

Bengaluru: Petrol: Rs 101.94 per litre, Diesel: Rs 87.89 per litre

Lucknow: Petrol: Rs 96.57 per litre, Diesel: Rs 89.76 per litre

Noida: Petrol: Rs 96.79 per litre, Diesel: Rs 89.96 per litre

Gurugram: Petrol: Rs 97.18 per litre, Diesel: Rs 90.05 per litre

Chandigarh: Petrol: Rs 96.20 per litre, Diesel: Rs 84.26 per litre

Also read:Nifty looks set to hit 18160-18600 in near term, Bank Nifty shows upmove; watch out for these levels

Public sector OMCs including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) revise the fuel prices daily in line with international benchmark prices and foreign exchange rates. Any changes in petrol and diesel prices are implemented from 6 am every day. Retail petrol and diesel prices differ from state to state because of local taxes like VAT or freight charges.

Sebi’s new block regime to leave brokers with less cash

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The Securities and Exchange Board of India’s move to introduce ASBA for secondary markets may deplete the cash balances of brokers even further.

Today, clients of non-bank based brokers who want to place trades have to transfer the money to their ledger accounts. Any excess cash that remains after the transaction stays with the broker and has to be returned within 90 or 30 days. For bank-based brokers, the requisite amount is drawn from the customer’s account and blocked. At the end of the day, the unutilised amount gets unblocked.

The new ASBA system aims to ensure that the money earmarked for trades bypasses the broker and goes directly to the clearing corporations.

“A substantial portion of customers’ cash lies with the broker, which can be misused. The broker’s net worth may not even cover one tenth of the cash balances. The regulator has already created several checks and balances to ensure the float is not misused and the ASBA mechanism, if implemented, will create another layer of safety for clients,” said a top broker, on condition of anonymity.

Idle balances lying in a trading account earns interest income for a brokerage firm. In India, due to quarterly settlement rules, brokerage firms are required to send back any unused balance back to the client’s bank account within 90 or 30 days. This also hurts brokerage revenues indirectly. Clients having money in their trading accounts have a much higher chance of trading than when in the bank account.

Madhabi Puri Buch, chairperson, Sebi, last week said the market regulator was engaging with various stakeholders to introduce ASBA for investments in the secondary market.

At present, ASBA, or Applications Supported by Blocked Amount, is used for applying to initial public offerings (IPOs) wherein an applicant’s account doesn’t get debited until shares are allotted to them.

“The regulator is trying to facilitate direct movement of securities and money to the issuer or the exchange. If money is passed through many hands there is a structural vulnerability that arises at different stages. The attempt is to eliminate the process of wrongdoing through technology and process reengineering,” Buch had said at the Global Fintech Fest held at Mumbai.

Also read: Gautam Adani slips to third place in world’s rich list, Mukesh Ambani out of top-10 after Monday’s D-St rout

Roadblocks ahead

Switching to a block system for secondary market trades will be complicated and may take another 8-10 months to implement. The regulator may keep it optional for some time or introduce it in phases.

Concerns remain as to how the new system will be implemented for intraday trades, which constitute 80-90% of all cash transactions.

Brokers will need to verify the account of clients and the amount that has been blocked for trades. However, banks may not permit this under existing regulations. Latency issues could crop up.

In tier 2 and tier 3 cities, several customers still use cheques and do not use the online payment system. There could be issues if there are account freezes by the CBI or Enforcement Directorate.

“The intention is good but the practical aspects need to be looked at,” said Kamlesh Shah, president, Association of National Exchanges Members of India, an industry body.

“How do you block the account if a person is continually trading? How do you differentiate between intraday and delivery-based transactions? F&O could have its own set of complications,” he said.

Shah believes that the regulator may experiment with the new system on the cash market first. He is also unsure if the new mechanism will work on the margin system or on the full payment basis.

“If it’s done on a margin basis then the question is whether the client will be able to pay the balance amount on the pay-in day or not. Who will take responsibility if there’s a mismatch? The new system should ensure that liquidity does not get impacted for the larger trades by institutional players,” said Shah.

Global Markets: Stocks recoup losses after Putin’s nuclear threat; Fed keeps dollar buoyant

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Global equities shook off an early knock to risk appetite and rebounded on Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the West of “nuclear blackmail”, sparking a brief flight to safe-haven assets like gold and bonds.

European stocks pared earlier losses and mostly rose, helping boost U.S. stock futures, as gains in energy and natural resource shares helped lift the broader indices.

Investors were already nervy ahead of a widely anticipated rate rise by the Federal Reserve later in the day, in a week that is jam-packed with major central banks’ decisions on how to respond to red-hot inflation.

The fact that the market has pretty much done a 180 turn shows that ultimately what the Fed does and what other central banks are set to do is more important than Putin’s sabre-rattling.

Also Read: US Stocks: Futures edge higher as investors gird for another big rate hike

“At the moment, the number one enemy is inflation obviously,” CMC chief markets strategist Michael Hewson said.

“You’re going to get ebb and flow in terms of rhetoric ramping up and ramping down, so you’re going to have to deal with the underlying issue and then deal with the rest of it as and when it happens. So the primary goal at the moment for central banks is to try to tame the inflation genie and that really needs to be at the forefront of their focus.”

Putin said he had signed a decree on partial mobilisation beginning on Wednesday – the first since World War Two – saying he was defending Russian territories and that the West wanted to destroy Russia.

“If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will use all available means to protect our people – this is not a bluff,” Putin said in a televised address to the nation, adding Russia had “lots of weapons to reply”.

Initially, the dollar rallied, government bond yields dropped sharply while gold and crude oil jumped.

But by the early European afternoon, much of this momentum had faded. The euro was down 0.6% at $0.99090, off an earlier session low of $0.98850, while the pound dipped 0.3% to $1.1342, holding above a new 37-year low of $1.1304.

The dollar index, which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against six major peers, rose 0.6% to 110.76, nearing a new two-decade high of 110.87 struck earlier.

Government bonds unwound most of their previous gains, pushing yields back up towards this week’s multi-year highs that have been driven by the determination of central banks to quell a potentially damaging rise in inflation.

The Fed headlines a week in which more than a dozen central banks announce policy decisions, including the Bank of Japan and Bank of England on Thursday.

German 2-year yields, the most sensitive to rate expectations, jumped 3 basis points to a new 11-year high of 1.752%, off the day’s low of 1.626%.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which touched 3.604% on Tuesday for the first time since April 2011, was last down 4 basis points at 3.534%.

Equities have been under pressure this week over the Fed’s upcoming policy decision at which it is widely expected to lift rates by three quarters of a point.But with fears mounting about the potential for another blow to global energy supply, crude oil and natural gas prices rose, giving a lift to shares of major producers.

Europe’s STOXX 600 index was up 0.4% on the day, led by a 2% gain in the oil and gas subindex, while London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.9%. U.S. stock index futures were up between 0.1 and 0.4%.

The MSCI All-World index of global shares dropped 0.3% to skim two-month lows, while gold, another traditional safe haven, gained 0.5% to trade around $1,667.40 an ounce, set for its largest one-day rally in over a week.

Crude oil jumped by 2% to $92.49 a barrel, while natural gas prices shot higher.

Nifty may trade in 14,400-15,000 range this week, Bank Nifty below 20, 50, 100 day SMAs; Wipro, Cipla in focus

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By Rajesh Palviya

Nifty opened with an upward gap and selling pressure in the first half dragged the index on Friday. However some buying support along at lower levels recovered some of the earlier losses to close on a flat note. The daily price action has formed a bearish candle carrying lower shadow indicating buying support at lower levels. The Nifty closed at 14681 with a loss of 19 points (-0.13%)

The weekly strength indicator RSI is moving downwards and is quoting below its reference line indicating negative bias. However momentum oscillator Stochastic has turned positive from the oversold zone indicating a possible consolidation or a up-move in the near term

Nifty derivative outlook

Nifty in current expiry has seen Short build up with a price cut of -1.46% and OI addition of 21 lac shares increasing from 102.38 Lac share to 123.24 Lac shares . The sentiment indicator PC Ratio is currently trading at 1.11 above the median line but still in a comfortable zone indicating positive bias. In Nifty the high OI on the CALL side in the weekly expiry scheduled 20th May is at 14,900, 15,000 & 15,300 strike, with 14,900 & 15,000 acting as a strong resistance wherein there has been writing of 16.13Lac shares & 16.80 Lac shares respectively. The high OI on the PUT side is at 14,500 -14,600 & 14,700 strike, with 14,600 & 14,400 acting as a strong support as there has been of writing of 12.20Lac shares & 10 Lac shares respectively. The tentative range for the current week is likely to be between 14,400 to 15,000. Fiis compared to last week have reduced their Future Index Long position by 8,545 contracts & have increased their Future Index Short by 15,964 contracts compared to

Bank Nifty outlook

Bank Nifty started the week on a flat note and remained negative throughout the week. Bank Nifty closed at 32170 with a loss of 735 points on a weekly basis.

On the weekly chart index has formed a bearish candle and has remained restricted within previous week’s High-Low range which signals indecision at current levels. Since the past couple of weeks, the index has been consolidating within 34000-31800 levels indicating short term consolidation. Hence any either side breakouts will indicate further direction. The chart pattern suggests that if Bank Nifty crosses and sustains above 33000 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 33500-34500 levels. However if the index breaks below 31900 level it would witness selling which would take the index towards 31500-30700. Bank Nifty is trading below 20, 50, and 100 day SMAs which are important short term moving averages, indicating negative bias in the short to medium term. Bank Nifty continues to remain in an uptrend in the medium term, so buying on dips continues to be our preferred strategy. For the week, we expect Bank Nifty to trade in the range of 33500-31500 with mixed bias.

The weekly strength indicator RSI is moving downwards and is quoting below its reference line indicating negative bias. However, momentum oscillator Stochastic has turned positive from the oversold zone indicating a possible consolidation or an up-move in the near term.

Bank Nifty derivative outlook

Banknifty also saw Short build up with price cut of -4.56% & OI addition of 2.36 lac shares increasing from 13.97 Lac to 16.34 Lac shares. In BankNifty the highest OI on the CALL side in the weekly expiry is at 32,500 -33,000 & 34,000 strike, with 33,000 acting as a strong resistance zone wherein there has been writing of 5.13Lac shares, while on the PUT side highest OI is at 31,500 – 31,000 & 30,000 strike, with 32,500 acting as a pivotal level for this weekly expiry as there has been addition of 7.46Lac shares on CALL side & 2.54 Lac addition on PUT side suggesting that any sustain move on either side of this level (32,500) will decide the trend in Banknifty.

Sectors and stocks to watch this week

We expect the IT, Pharma, FMCG, Fertiliser and Consumer durable sector to do well in the near term. One can focus on stocks like Cipla, Lupin, PI Industries, Bata India, Wipro, Asian Paints, Pidilite Industries, Voltas for near term bullish trend. Midcap space also looks attractive and we expect stocks like Great Eastern Shipping Co Ltd, Welspun India, Eris Lifesciences, Gujarat State Fertilizers Chemicals (GSFC) are likely to do well in the near term.

(Rajesh Palviya is Vice President– Research (Head Technical & Derivatives) at Axis Securities Limited. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

Will Nifty rise above 19000 or sink further in trade? See GIFT Nifty, FII data, crude, more before market opens

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GIFT Nifty traded up 48 points or 0.25% at 19,005.5, indicating a positive opening for domestic indices NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex on Friday. Previously on Thursday, the NSE Nifty 50 tanked 264.90 points or 1.39% to settle at 18,857.25, while the BSE Sensex shed as much as 900.91 points or 1.41% to 63,148.15.

“In the backdrop of weak global cues, investors shunned local equities at will on the monthly F&O expiry day with benchmark Nifty closing below the crucial 19k mark amid sell-off in frontline banking, automobile and IT stocks. Investors are worried about the simmering West Asia conflict, economic uncertainty and rate hike woes, and hence maintained their bearish stance for the sixth straight session,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities.

Key things to know before share market opens on October 27, 2023

Wall Street

US stocks tumbled on Thursday, dragged by tech and tech-adjacent megacap shares as investors digested mixed quarterly earnings and signs of economic resiliency that could encourage the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at a restrictive level longer than expected, reported Reuters.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite tanked 225.62 points or 1.76% to 12,595.61. The S&P tumbled 49.54 points or 1.18% to 4,137.23, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 251.63 points or 0.76% to 32,784.3.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies, traded up 0.02% at 106.63.

Crude Oil

WTI crude prices are trading at $83.70 down 0.53%, while Brent crude prices are trading at $88.47 down 0.61%, on Friday morning.

Asian Market

Shares in the Asia-Pacific region are trading broadly in green on Friday morning. The Asia Dow is trading up 0.80%, the benchmark Chinese index, the Shanghai Composite is down 0.09%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up 0.91%. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is up 0.81%.

FII, DII Data

Foreign institutional investors (FII) offloaded shares worth net Rs 7,702.53 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DII) added shares worth net Rs 6,558.45 crore on October 26, 2023, according to the provisional data available on the NSE.

Technical View

Commenting on the technical outlook of Nifty 50, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said, “Once again, bears remain at the helm as the Nifty slipped below 19,000 for the first time in four months, indicating a rising bearish condition. The bearish crossover in the momentum indicator also supports the negative momentum. In the current scenario, supports are appearing very fragile and vulnerable. Despite the recent sharp decline, further correction from the current level seems highly possible. Support on the lower end is visible at 18,600-18,645, while resistance is positioned at 18,950-19,000.”

Bank Nifty Outlook

On Thursday, the Bank Nifty index tumbled as much as 551.85 points or 1.29% to 42,280.15. “Bank Nifty is heading towards the psychological support of the 42,000. The fall has been very sharp and is appearing oversold which increases the probability of a pullback. The pullback can be expected till 42,500 – 42,600 however it is unlikely to result into a trend reversal. Overall, the trend is negative and we expect it to target levels of 40,850 from short term perspective,” said Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Stalemate in overseas MF limits puts investors in a spot

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The reluctance of regulators to raise the cap on investment limits in mutual fund schemes that invest in overseas securities has left investors that have put money in such schemes in a lurch.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) had advised fund houses to stop subscription in schemes that invest in overseas securities on January 29. The directive to stop subscription was mainly on account of the industry crossing the mandated limit of $7 billion for overseas investments.

Also Read: Rupee hits new lifetime low, nears 82 mark on strong dollar, weak markets; USDINR support at 81

While a few schemes did reopen for subscription, the majority of active schemes are now closed for subscription, either through lump sum or systematic investment plans, according to industry officials.

“It is not fair to the existing investors as they are not able to average out their investments. This stalemate has to be resolved and some breakthrough has to be found,” said Swarup Mohanty, chief executive of Mirae Asset MF.

Investors flocked to international funds in droves in the last-year-and-a-half amid a flurry of launches and attractive 3- and 5-year returns. As many as 29 such schemes have been launched since 2021 with a dozen focused on US equities.

“The investors may note that till any further clarification/notification is received from Sebi/Amfi in this regard, the overseas investment limit shall remain capped at the amount as on end of day of February 1, 2022. The AMC reserves the right to suspend the subscriptions/reject/refund the applications from the investors as and when it is close to the overseas investment limit available as on end of day of February 1, 2022,” reads the addendum of a large AMC, which reopened subscription in five of its schemes in June.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down 24% and 31%, respectively. China’s Shanghai Composite is down 16%, while Germany’s DAX index is down 25%.

“From a market timing perspective, this would be a good time to invest since a lot of international markets have corrected significantly. Unfortunately, existing investors in some of these funds can’t average out because schemes are closed for subscriptions,” said Niranjan Avasthi, head – products, marketing and digital, Edelweiss Asset Management.

Financial planners believe that the current restrictions may create an asset allocation problem for investors who want to diversify in different geographies and reduce single-country risk.

“If your scheme has not opened then you may want to look at exposure to a comparable scheme from a different fund house. But do not go overboard and invest only to the extent your asset allocation allows. The US indices, for example, are trading near 52-week lows and present an opportunity to fill the asset allocation gap,” said Amol Joshi, founder of Plan Rupee Investment Services.

Investors can also look at investments into overseas ETFs because the $1-billion limit is yet to be fully utilised. Currently, MFs can make investments in overseas ETFs subject to a maximum of $300 million per MF, within the overall industry limit of $1 billion.

“Edelweiss international FoFs are open for subscriptions and we are seeing smart investors investing more and many continuing their SIPs at this point,” said Avasthi.

Last year in June, Sebi had increased the limit from $600 million to $1 billion per mutual fund within the overall industry limit of $7 billion.

Financial planners recommend setting aside 5-10% of one’s portfolio in international funds. Those who have already invested in international funds can stay put and hope for markets to recover, and mean reversion to play out.

Reliance Industries Rating: Buy – Building the next engine of growth

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We delve deep into Reliance Industries (RIL)’s FY22 Annual Report, underscoring the key initiatives and business outlooks for its various segments. The key highlights of our analysis are:

The report showed RIL’s FY22 belonged to the O2C (order to cash) segment performance that outpaced other segments, even as RJio retained its market share. Retail business saw a steady recovery. The high crude prices led to 56% y-o-y Ebitda growth in O2C business while Retail grew 28% y-o-y; RJio growth, however, decelerated to 22% y-o-y. Post-equity raise during the last couple of years, FY22 saw a strong capex with heavy investments, especially in RJio, which included a large-scale spectrum investment. Retail witnessed aggressive footprint additions, while new energy reported aggressive acquisitions. The growth momentum and improved margin profile across the sector will drive RIL’s revenue/Ebitda growth of 25%/32% in FY23E, respectively. Over the next two-to-three years, RIL is likely to create the next engine of growth but it could put pressure on its near-term return ratios.

Also Read: FPIs infuse Rs 5,600 crore in Indian equities in September so far 

Retail benefitting from Covid-19 recovery and store additionsReliance Retail clocked a robust growth of 29%/28% y-o-y in standalone revenue/Ebitda, propelled by recovery in footfalls as well as footprint additions. Core Ebitda too rose 35% y-o-y, though merely 6% over pre-Covid levels, as resumption in business included incremental costs.

Store additions (of 2,485) remained strong and the continued focus on online segment too reaped benefits.

O2C segment benefiting from higher crude pricesRIL restructured its Refining and Petrochemical segments into the O2C segment to attract strategic partnerships. Demand improved in FY22 y-o-y (on a lower base), which led to expanded margins in refined products. Gasoline margin improved sharply .

Opening up of the economy and removal of travel restrictions would enable demand to pick-up faster than expected. SG GRM to remain high at an average of ~$18/bbl in FY23, as demand continues to outweigh supply. Management believes that low Chinese exports and peak maintenance season will support product margins going forward.

Capex and debtRIL’s total capex stood at Rs 970 bn, primarily for the Digital, Retail, and O2C businesses along with the forex impact, while capitalised capex stood at Rs 1.5t primarily due to RJio.

Valuation and viewThe crude price improvement continues to prop up strong growth momentum in FY23. We expect consolidated revenue and Ebitda to clock 15% CAGR each over FY22-FY24, which do not factor in any incremental growth from 5G capex, new energy and other segments. These could create the next engine of growth over the next two-to-three years as each of retail, telecom and new energy is seeing notable technological advancement with ambitious growth targets. However, this has the potential to dent the existing single-digit return ratios. We reiterate our BUY rating on RIL with a TP of Rs 2,880.

Buy these two stocks for gains in coming weeks while Nifty maintains its uptrend

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By Subash Gangadharan

Markets have been continuously moving higher over the last few sessions and making new life highs in the process. Buying has emerged on any intraday dips, thereby ensuring the uptrend remains intact. The short term uptrend is however beginning to look stretched. While the Nifty/Sensex could move up further in the very near term, we believe that these main indices could make a short term top soon. Zooming into the intraday charts of the Nifty, we can see that the index may be forming a head and shoulder pattern.The Sensex is also very close to the psychological level of 50,000, which is another reason to trigger a short term sell off. Crucial supports to watch for a short term trend reversal on the Nifty are at 14435. A close below this level could lead to the Nifty coming down towards the 14300-14200 levels.Buy CESCAfter correcting from a high of 700 touched in September 2020, CESC found support at the 555 levels in early November 2020. These levels also roughly coincide with the previous supports tested in May and Aug 2020, thereby making it a strong support.

Yesterday, the stock also broke out of the recent high of 640 on the back of above-average volumes. This augurs well for the uptrend to continue.

Technical indicators too are giving positive signals as the stock trades above the 20-day and 50-day SMA. Intermediate momentum readings like the 14-week RSI too are in rising mode and not overbought.

We believe the stock is ready to continue the next leg of its underlying uptrend and has the potential to move higher in the coming weeks. We, therefore, recommend a Buy between the 670-685 levels. CMP is 683. Stop loss is at 624 while targets are at 810.

Buy ITCITC has entered into a new intermediate uptrend a few weeks back as it crossed its previous intermediate high of 210. The stock has since then corrected and consolidated in a range above the 200-day EMA.

Today, the stock broke out of the 200-206 range on the back of above-average volumes. This suggests that the stock is ready to move higher and continue its intermediate uptrend.

Technical indicators too are giving positive signals as the stock trades above the 20-day and 50-day SMA. Intermediate momentum readings like the 14-week RSI too are in rising mode and not overbought.

We believe the stock is ready to continue the next leg of its underlying uptrend and has the potential to move higher in the coming weeks. We, therefore, recommend a Buy between the 208-212 levels. CMP is 211.2. Stop loss is at 205 while targets are at 226.

(Subash Gangadharan is a Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities. The views expressed are personal. Please consult your financial advisor before investing)

Gold to experience bargain buying in short-term on weak Indian Rupee; US inflation, retail sales data eyed

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By Jigar Trivedi

MCX Gold October, after three back to back weekly declines, rose toward $1,720 an ounce, benefitting from a pullback in the dollar as investors digested Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks about inflation. Powell said the Fed is “strongly committed” to fighting inflation, but markets took his comments in stride as traders have already priced in another supersized 75 basis point rate hike at this month’s policy meeting. The ECB also delivered a historic 75 basis point rate increase and signaled further tightening as it aims to get ahead of inflation despite heightened recession risks. Meanwhile, gold remains within 3% of its lowest levels in over two years, having also lost its shine as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty as rising interest rates dented bullion demand.

Another 75bp in an environment of strong growth and rising core price pressures

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on monetary policy are clearly supportive of a third consecutive 75bp interest rate hike on 21st September. There is no hint that he supports moderation, arguing that “we need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing and we have to keep at it until the job is done”. There is also the usual mention of inflation expectations and the need to anchor them in order to ensure inflation doesn’t become ingrained.

The latest data certainly backs the case for 75bp with business surveys looking robust, the labour market continuing to create jobs in significant numbers, and next week’s inflation numbers set to show core CPI accelerating to 6.1% from 5.9%. Moreover, the third quarter is shaping up to be quite a strong one, fully reversing the declines seen in GDP in the first half of the year.

Inventories and net trade are swinging back and set to make decent positive contributions to headline growth. Meanwhile, consumer spending is being boosted by the lift in spending power from lower gasoline prices. High-frequency data over the Labor Day holiday show restaurant dining at record levels, while air passenger travel over the past weekend exceeded that of 2019 for the first time, so 3% growth looks to be on the cards.

Also read: MCX Gold outguns Comex on weak Indian Rupee, yellow metal may trade sideways; buy on dips for gains

Dollar eases after Powell & ECB remarks

The dollar index eased below 109 Friday and was set to snap a tree-week advance, as traders took some profits following a strong rally, while assessing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks about inflation. Powell said the Fed is “strongly committed” to fighting inflation and cautioned strongly against prematurely loosening policy. However, markets largely took his remarks in stride as traders have already priced in another supersized 75 basis point rate hike at this month’s policy meeting. His comments were also offset by the European Central Bank’s decision to raise its policy rate by a historic margin of 75 basis points on Thursday and signaled further tightening as it aims to get ahead of inflation despite heightened recession risks. Investors now look ahead of US CPI data for August to be released next week, which will be the last inflation report before this month’s policy meeting.

Comex, MCX gold outlook

Next week we expect the yellow metal to experience a short covering on the back of weak dollar index. The US will release CPI for August is expected to come on 13th September which will be keenly monitored. On 15th September, Thursday the US will release retail sales and industrial production for August. Investors will also have to monitor Fed monetary policy which is scheduled on 21st September. Traders are expecting the Fed to increase the rate by another 75 bps. Under this circumstance, we expect the dollar to retreat a bit since the market has discounted almost every aggression by the Fed. MCX Gold October may rebound to Rs 50,900 – 51,300 per 10 gram in the coming week. Comex gold is expected to recover to $1,740 an ounce in the week to come.

(Jigar Trivedi, Senior Analyst – Currency & Commodity, Reliance Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own.)