Month: October 2023

Gold Price Today, 22 Sep 2022: Gold falls on strong dollar after US Fed’s rate hike, MCX support at 48800

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Gold Price Today, Gold Price Outlook, Gold Price Forecast: Gold rate and silver rate were trading weak in India on Thursday, on the back of strength in US Dollar. On Multi Commodity Exchange, gold October futures were trading flat to negative at Rs 49,439 per 10 gram, as against the previous close of Rs 49,443. Silver December futures were ruling Rs 96 or 0.2 per cent down at Rs 57,202 per kg on MCX. Globally, yellow metal prices fell 1% as the dollar rose sharply after the US Federal Reserve increased interest rates by another 75 basis points and flagged more hikes, according to Reuters. Spot gold dropped 1% to $1,656.97 per ounce, and U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,667.30.

Navneet Damani, Sr. Vice President – Commodity & Currency Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst — Commodities, HDFC Securities

Gold prices traded lower on Thursday with COMEX Spot gold prices were trading 0.87% down near $1660 in the morning trade. MCX Gold October futures opened lower near Rs. 49330 per 10 gram following weak global cues. Gold prices decline post US FOMC rate decision and stronger dollar. The US FED hiked key interest rates by 75 bps, in line with market expectations. However, the more hawkish comments from Fed chair pushed dollar index higher denting demand for gold. We expect gold prices to trade sideways to down for the day with COMEX Spot gold support at $1640 and resistance at $1676 per ounce. MCX Gold October support lies at Rs. 48800 and resistance at Rs. 49500 per 10 gram.

Also read: Rupee hits lifetime low on strong dollar, risk aversion in equities after another US Fed jumbo rate hike

Ravindra Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP- Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

COMEX gold trades modestly lower near $1668/oz weighed down by firmness in the US dollar post Fed decision. The US dollar index jumped to a fresh 2002 high as the US central bank projected the possibility of another 0.75% hike this year and no cut in interest rate until 2024. The US dollar is also supported by safe haven buying and no major change in monetary policy stance of other central banks. The persistent strength in the US dollar may continue to weigh on gold however Fed’s move was well expected so market reaction may subside.

Abhishek Chauhan, VP — Commodities & Currencies, Mandot Securities

US interest rate hike and hawkish message from the Federal Reserve boosted the dollar and weighed heavily on metal markets. Dollar index made a high of 111.445(+1.107) Metal Prices witnessed some selling pressure pre and post FED decision. Gold has support at $1660-1650, while resistance is placed at $1690-1700.Silver at COMEX has support at $19.00-19.10, while resistance is at $19.90-20.00. In rupee terms gold at MCX has support at Rs 49050-48930, while resistance is at Rs 49,600-49,660. Silver has support at Rs 56100-56300, while resistance is at Rs 57600–57800.

Also read: Nifty must hold 17667 for upmove towards 18000; buy these stocks to pocket short-term gains

(The views in this story are expressed by the respective experts of the research and brokerage firm. Financial Express Online does not bear any responsibility for their advice. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)

Sensex, Nifty fall for 6th day straight ahead of monthly F&O expiry; Rupee at new low, Nifty support at 16800

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BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 settled in red for the 6th straight day on Wednesday, one day ahead of weekly and monthly F&O expiry. BSE Sensex plunged 509 points or nearly 1 per cent to 56,598, while NSE Nifty 50 crashed 0.9 per cent or 149 points to settle at 16589. Also, Indian rupee ended at a record closing low of 81.94 per dollar on Wednesday. Index heavyweights such as Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), HDFC Bank, ITC, Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC), Axis Bank, and State Bank of India (SBI), among others contributed the most to the indices’ fall. Broader markets too fell in line with equity frontliners. S&P BSE Midcap index fell 0.5 per cent or 166 points to end at 24438, while S&P BSE SmallCap index lost 0.4 per cent or 120 points to settle at 27871.

Also read: Major headwinds for Indian economy; RBI intervention to curb rupee fall, slowing exports may derail recovery

Investors continue to be sceptical of the domestic market’s higher premium amid the ongoing global deceleration while foreign investors are fleeing emerging economies in search of safer havens. Although the domestic economy is buoyed by solid fundamentals, the stock market’s appetite for risk has been hindered by the rising worries of a worldwide recession. Domestic investors are turning to IT and pharma companies, which have been in a consolidation phase for the past year and are now gaining from the INR depreciation. The RBI policy meeting is currently underway, and the central bank is likely to raise repo rates by 35-50 basis points, however, the inflation outlook may soften in reaction to declining commodity prices.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities

Markets remained choppy with a sharply downward bias, as investors exited banking and metal stocks ahead of the monthly F&O expiry with the likely rate hike by the RBI & other central banks indicating that bearish sentiment could continue going ahead. Technically, we are of the view that 17000 would act as an immediate resistance level. Below which, the correction wave is likely to continue till 16700-16650. On the flip side, a short recovery rally is possible only after the dismissal of 17000. Above the same the index could move up to 17100-17200. The Nifty is having major support between 16700-16650 (which is important retracement support level). Buying is advisable in index heavyweight stocks if Nifty falls to 16700 levels.

Also read: Govt further extends deadline for broken rice export in-transit before ban

Mohit Nigam, Head – PMS, Hem Securities

Investors should remain cautious ahead of RBI’s monetary policy meeting later this week. A 50 bps interest rate hike is expected from RBI. On the technical front, immediate support and resistance in Nifty 50 are 16800 and 17200 respectively. Immediate support and resistance in Bank Nifty are 37250 and 38750 respectively.

Ashwin Pal, Senior Technical Analyst, Mandot Securities

We are expecting high uncertainty and very high volatility in the upcoming sessions on the back of weak global cues, fear of recession, and other important upcoming events. Investors and traders are advised to remain calm and patient in intraday trading. On Wednesday, Nifty settled at 16858.60, with major support levels at 16700-16500 and major resistance at 17000-17180. Nifty Bank ended at 37759.85, with major support levels at 37400-37180 and resistance levels at 38000-38300.

The recommendations in this story are by the respective research analysts and brokerage firms. FinancialExpress.com does not bear any responsibility for their investment advice. Capital markets investments are subject to rules and regulations. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.

Sun Pharma, Jindal Steel among top stocks to buy, sell; intraday chart suggests Nifty may fall up to 14,130

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By Shrikant Chouhan

The market registered an extremely volatile session, the Nifty/ Sensex closed 63/243 points lower. The Nifty/ Sensex failed to sustain above the 14500/48400 resistance mark and due to consistent selling pressure at higher levels along with tepid global cues the benchmark index corrected sharply. Among sectors, profit booking was seen in IT stocks whereas, Auto, Pharma and selective Media stocks witnessed buying interest.

Jindal Steel and Power Ltd BUY, CMP: Rs 431.55, TARGET: Rs 455, SL: Rs 420

On the daily time frame, after the sharp up move, the stock was into a consolidation phase and finally, it has given a breakout from its Flag chart pattern with incremental volume activity indicating further up move in the coming horizon.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries LtdBUY, CMP: Rs 645.15, TARGET: Rs 675, SL: Rs 630

The stock is trading into a rising channel pattern making the higher top and higher bottom series on weekly and monthly charts, therefore all major technical trend indicators such as MACD and ADX are strong and intact. Thus upward movement from the current level is very likely to remain in the near term.

Bata IndiaSELL, CMP: Rs 1,297.65, TARGET: Rs 1,230, SL: Rs 1,330

The stock is in a downtrend where the bears are quite strong at the moment as bulls are not able to gain strength, on the monthly scale as well the stock is trading below its rising trend line and short-term moving averages which indicates bearishness in the counter.

RBL Bank SELL, CMP: Rs 174.55, TARGET: Rs 165, SL: Rs 180

Bearish continuation formation is evident in the counter as it is continuously making lower high and lower lows, hence the overall structure of the stock suggest that it is heading to its previous demand zone on the downside

(Shrikant Chouhan is Executive Vice President (Equity Technical Research), Kotak Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own.)

Asian Paints Rating: buy; Not just a shade card; a full catalogue

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We expect Asian Paints (APL) to reinforce its leadership in FY23 with double-digit volume growth. Q2FY23 in our view, will likely benefit from a strong September, but see a weak Jul-Aug as heavy rains delay exterior painting. On a three-year basis, APL’s 20% CAGR is much brighter than the industry’s 15%. Auto coatings has picked up well with a fair share in Indian OEMs. Kitchen, bath, lighting etc. make up 4% of revenue, and APL aims to scale it up to 8–10% in four years.

Waterproofing revenue, which had doubled in FY22, would continue to undergo strong double-digit growth. In our view, the paints sector has huge moats, and would not be an easy pushover for new entrants. Maintain ‘BUY’ with a TP of `3,815.

Also read: Paytm share price rises 7% in 6 months, may rally this much more; JP Morgan bullish, should you buy?

* Demand: July-August demand postponed due to excessive rainfall. Management anticipates a good festive season—advanced to the third week of October.

* Barring crude-linked raw material (RM), majority of the RMs have not stabilised.

* Waterproofing business: Doing well in repair and renovation. In our view, Pidilite is more into new projects, so we expect both to do well.

* 22 patents filed; 29 products developed in FY22. 200-plus scientists in R&D: It is focussed on alternative material sourcing and formulation optimisation.

* Second factory in Bangladesh with initial capacity of 25,000KL/year operational.

* Indonesia foray: APL is gaining good presence in the ‘value for money’ market segment.

* Safe Painting service gained major traction in FY22, up almost 3x YoY. This is a strong differentiator vis-à-vis competition.

Outlook and valuation: Fundamentals strong; maintain ‘BUY’

Also read: Tata Motors eyes 4WD in its upcoming electric SUVs to level up its EV game

APL continues to be the dominant player, and we expect the status quo to sustain despite Grasim’s impending entry. APL’s industry-leading growth in the decorative segment (31%/36% y-o-y by volume/value in FY22) was driven by upgradation of ‘bottom-of-the-pyramid’ and focus on premiumising the mid/top-end. Auto coatings has picked up well over the past 5-6 months, and APL has a fair share of Indian OEMs.

Kitchen, bath, lighting and others make up 4% of revenue. APL aims to scale it up to 8–10% of revenue in four years. The Indonesia arm too has scaled up well due to creditable presence in ‘value for money’. We expect meaningful growth in decorative volumes to sustain. Maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with a target price of `3,815.

OPEC+ agrees deep cuts to oil production despite US pressure

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OPEC+ agreed its deepest cuts to oil production since the 2020 COVID pandemic at a Vienna meeting on Wednesday, curbing supply in an already tight market despite pressure from the United States and others to pump more.

The cut could spur a recovery in oil prices that have dropped to about $90 from $120 three months ago on fears of a global economic recession, rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar.

“Higher oil prices, if driven by sizeable production cuts, would likely irritate the Biden Administration ahead of U.S. mid-term elections,” Citi analysts said in a note.

Also Read: Crude oil may fall to Rs 6500/bbl, recession, rate hike talks may weigh on oil prices; adopt sell on

“There could be further political reactions from the U.S., including additional releases of strategic stocks, along with some wildcards including further fostering of a NOPEC bill,” Citi said, referring to a U.S. antitrust bill against OPEC.

JPMorgan also said it expected Washington to put in place counter measures by releasing more oil stocks.

OPEC+ sources said the agreed production cuts of 2 million bpd or 2% of global demand would be made from existing baseline figures.

That means the cuts would be less deep because OPEC+ fell about 3.6 million barrels per day short of its output target in August.

Under-production happened because of Western sanctions on countries such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran and output problems with producers such as Nigeria and Angola.

Also Read: Make the right energy choices

Goldman Sachs analysts said they estimated the real production cuts would therefore amount to 0.4-0.6 million bpd mainly by Gulf OPEC producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

Analysts from Jefferies said they estimated the real cuts at 0.9 million bpd.

OIL PRICES RISE

Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC+ – which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia – have said they are seeking to prevent volatility rather than to target a particular oil price.

Benchmark Brent crude traded flat at $92 per barrel on Wednesday, after climbing on Tuesday.

The West has accused Russia of weaponising energy, creating a crisis in Europe that could trigger gas and power rationing this winter.

Moscow, meanwhile, accuses the West of weaponising the dollar and financial systems such as SWIFT in retaliation for Russia sending troops into Ukraine in February.

While Saudi Arabia has not condemned Moscow’s actions in Ukraine, U.S. officials have said part of the reason Washington wants lower oil prices is to deprive Moscow of oil revenue.

Relations have been strained between Saudi Arabia and the administration of Biden, who travelled to Riyadh this year but failed to secure any firm cooperation commitments on energy.

“The decision is technical, not political,” United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazroui told reporters ahead of the meeting.

“We will not use it as a political organisation,” he said, adding that concerns about a global recession would be one of the key topics. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who was put on the U.S. special designated nationals sanctions list last week, also travelled to Vienna to participate in meetings. Novak is not under EU sanctions.

If Nifty holds above 14,900, it may touch 15,200, Bank Nifty to remain in positive range; TCS, Airtel in focus

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By Rajesh Palviya

Nifty started the week on negative note however buying momentum throughout the week recovered some of the earlier losses to close in positive terrain. Nifty closed at 14823 with a gain of 192 points on a weekly basis. On the weekly chart index has formed a bullish candle and remained restricted within previous week’s High-Low range indicating lack of strength on either side. Since past couple of months index is consolidating within broad range of 15000- 14200 levels representing sideways trend.

The weekly strength indicator RSI is moving downwards and is quoting below its reference line indicating negative bias. However momentum oscillator Stochastic has turned positive from the oversold zone indicating a possible consolidation or an up-move in the near term

Nifty derivative outlook

Nifty in current expiry has seen Short build up with a price cut of -0.42% and OI addition of 20 lac shares increasing from 102.38 Lac share to 122.41 Lac shares , while in Banknifty also there is Short build up with price cut of -2.27% & OI addition of 1.33 lac shares increasing from 13.97 Lac to 15.31 Lac shares. The sentiment indicator PC Ratio is currently trading at 1.33 well above the median line but still in a comfortable zone indicating positive bias. In Nifty the highest OI on the CALL side in the weekly expiry scheduled 12th May is at 15,000 -15,200 & 15,500 strike, with 15,200 & 15,400 acting as a strong resistance wherein there has been writing of 11.34Lac shares & 8.44 Lac shares respectively. The highest OI on the PUT side is at 14,500 -14,600 & 14,800 strike, with 14,500 & 14,600 acting as a strong support provided Nifty closes & sustains below 14,800 as there has been of writing of 17.83Lac shares in the said strike clearly indicating a strong support level.

Bank Nifty outlook

Bank Nifty started the week with a downward gap however short covering along with buying support at lower levels recovered some of the earlier losses. Bank Nifty closed at 32905 with a gain of 123 points on a weekly basis. On the weekly chart the index has formed a small Bullish candle with shadows on either side indicating indecisiveness amongst participants regarding the direction. The index is moving in a Lower Top and Lower Bottom formation on the daily chart indicating negative bias.

The chart pattern suggests that if Bank Nifty crosses and sustains above 33500 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 34000-34300 levels. However, if the index breaks below 32500 level it would witness selling which would take the index towards 32000-31500. Bank Nifty is now well placed above its 20 SMA indicating positive bias in the short term. Bank Nifty continues to remain in an uptrend in the medium term, so buying on dips continues to be our preferred strategy. For the week, we expect Bank Nifty to trade in the range of 34500-32500 with a positive bias.

The weekly strength indicator RSI is moving downwards and is quoting below its reference line indicating negative bias. However momentum oscillator Stochastic has turned positive from the oversold zone indicating a possible consolidation or an up-move in the near term

The trend deciding level for the day is 32980 If BANKNIFTY trades above this level then we may witness a further rally up to 33185-33465-33675 levels. However, if BANKNIFTY trades below 32980 levels then we may see some profit booking initiating in the market, it may correct up to 32700-32490-32210 levels.

Bank Nifty derivative outlook

BankNifty is having highest OI on the CALL side in the weekly expiry at 33,000 -33,500 & 34,000 strike, with 34,000 acting as a strong resistance wherein there has been writing of 4.89Lac shares, while on the PUT side highest OI is at 32,000 & 31,000 strike, with 33,000 acting as a pivotal level for this weekly expiry as there has been addition of 4.66Lac shares on CALL side & 4 Lac addition on PUT side suggesting that any sustain move on either side of this level will decide the trend in Banknifty. IndiaVix is currently at 20.82 % and has been in downward trajectory from its recent high of 24.54% suggesting confidence and stability in current market trend and further descend from these levels will augment for uptrend in market.

Sector and stocks in focus this week

We expect Pharma, Healthcare, IT, Metal and Oil & Gas sectors to do well in the near term . One can focus on stocks like Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Lupin, JSW Steel, MOIL, TCS, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, Adani Ports, CESC for near term bullish trend.

(Rajesh Palviya is the Deputy Vice President – Research (Head Technical & Derivatives) at Axis Securities Limited. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

Buy these two stocks for near term gains while Nifty reverses upside trend

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By Nagaraj Shetti

After showing an upside bounce in the last three sessions, Nifty reversed down sharply on Wednesday and closed the day with a hefty loss of around 265 points. After opening on a negative note, Nifty slipped into weakness in the early part of the session. It later shifted into a range move with an attempt of upside recovery. The sharp intraday weakness triggered in the later part and the Nifty closed near the lows.

Nifty is forming lower highs and lows on the daily chart and is expected to revisit the lower gap support of 14350 in the short term. This could also mean further down move below the crucial weekly 10 period EMA as per weekly chart at 14580 levels. 

Previously, this moving average has offered good support for the market in the subsequent weeks and led to upside bounce in past. Hence, Nifty not finding support of this moving average this time could mean chances of broad-based weakness beginning in the market.

The short term trend of Nifty seems to have reversed down after a small upside bounce. Next lower levels to be watched around 14350-14300 in the next few sessions before showing another round of small upside bounce from the lows. Any pullback rally could find resistance around 14675-14750. 

Buy Sequent Scientific Ltd – (CMP Rs 248.05) 

The downward correction of the last five weeks seems to have completed in the stock price, as per weekly timeframe chart. The stock price has witnessed sharp upside bounce on Tuesday-Wednesday and closed higher. This pattern indicate an attempt of upside breakout after a down trend. This action could be a near term bottom reversal for the stock trend around Rs 215-220 levels. The weekly 10 period EMA is continuously offering support for the stock price and the recent upside bounce has occurred from near this support around Rs 225 levels. The momentum oscillator shows positive indication.

Buying can be initiated in SEQUENT at CMP (Rs 248.05), add more on dips down to Rs 238, wait for the upside target of Rs 272 in the next 3-4 weeks. Place a stoploss of Rs 232.

Buy Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd – (CMP Rs 218) 

The prices of this Sugar stock has been in a sharp uptrend over the last few weeks. The decline of last week seems to have regained in this week, as stock price surged up by 7% as of now. Further upmove from here could result in an upside breakout of the hurdle of Rs 226 levels and that could open more upside for the short term. Weekly 14 period RSI has turned up from near 60 levels, which indicate strength of an upside momentum. Volume has started to expand with upside in the stock price.

Buying can be initiated in Balarmpur Chini at CMP (218), add more on dips down to Rs 210, wait for the upside target of Rs 240 in the next 3-4 weeks. Place a stoploss of Rs 203.

(Nagaraj Shetti is a Technical Research Analyst at HDFC securities. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)