5 technical stocks to buy: Nifty may hit 15500, Sensex seen at 53,000 in next 3-6 months

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By Shrikant Chouhan

Technically, at present the market is following the pattern of the rally between 2001 to 2008.  It could be 10 times in the next 7 to 8 years. The Nifty was at 7500 during Covid19 crisis and the Sensex was at 25700. Nifty has the potential to move up to 75,000 and Sensex to 2,57,000 points. In the next 3-6 months, we expect the Nifty to reach 15,500 and Sensex at 53,000 levels.

Between 1992 to 2001, Sensex moved from 2000 (lowest) to 6000 (highest) levels, which posted decent returns, however, the rally was completely gradual and highly volatile. It was the toughest task for every participant (Fund Managers to Retail) to capture major moves.

However, between 2001 to 2008 it was flourishing for everyone. Every individual and corporate made huge money as the rally was consistent and less volatile. BSE Sensex moved from 2,000 to 20,000 (10 times). While Nifty 50 raced from 850 to 6350 (8 times) levels. Similarly, from 2008 to 2020, the Nifty 50 rose from 2250 to 12000 (6 times) levels and Sensex from 7700 to 42000 (6 times) levels. It was yet again gradual and highly volatile. It was the toughest task for every market participant to gauge the mood. 

Based on the above correlation our stance, one should buy on every major dips. Support for the market exists at 14000 and 13000 levels. 

AMBUJA CEMENTS (BUY): The stock is forming higher top higher bottom series on a weekly and monthly basis.  It has recently broken consolidation triangle formation at 225 and recovered back sharply.  Technically, the stock is ready to surpass the level of 291.50, which is the all-time highest level for the stock.  Buy in tranches with a stop loss at 225.  On the higher side, we could see the levels of 290 and 300.  

JINDAL STEEL & POWER (BUY): The stock has formed and validated to the formation of a double bottom.  Based on it we could see the levels of 350 on the minimum and 550 on the maximum side. The metal index 700 points away from the all-time highest levels, which it has formed in the year January 2018.  We are of the view that the index is ready to surpass the all-time highest levels and that would generate more fuel in high beta stocks like JSPL. Buy at current levels and more on dips with a final stop loss at 270.  

BHARTI AIRTEL (BUY): The stock is in long term break out.  It has broken multiyear resistance at 500.  Although the stock was down in the second half of the year it recovered back and regained the level of 500 plus.  We are of the view that the stock is heading for 700 in the medium term.  It is a buy at current and more on dips with a final stop loss at 530. 

BALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS (BUY): It has spent 14 year within the trading range of 202 and 29. Currently, the stock is trading at 183 levels and in the process of crossing the level of 202 based on it’s formation of rounding bottom on the monthly chart.  Technically multiyear break out of the trading range helps the stock to move further higher. Even if we go through with stocks related to agriculture activity, then we can notice that most of them have already entered in the long term breakout, which is positive for the stock.  The strategy should be to buy at current levels and more on dips up to 170 with a final stop loss at 160.  On the higher side 200 and 225 seems achievable. 

TATA MOTORS (BUY): On a daily basis, the stock is in strong uptrend, whereas it is in the pullback mode on a monthly chart.  It was at 605 levels in the year 2016 and went to 63.50 levels during the period of Covid19. After crossing the level of 200, we saw a vertical up move in the stock.  It has given a price and volume based breakout, which is significant and along with positive news flow for the stock on a domestic and international basis. Even if we consider 50% retracement from the lower levels then it could reach 330 levels. The strategy should be to buy at current levels and more on dips to 225 levels in the anticipation of support to the electrical vehicle industry.  Keep a stop loss at 200 for the same. 

(Shrikant Chouhan is Executive Vice President – Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities. The views expressed are personal. Please consult your financial advisor before investing)

ICICI Bank, ITC, Adani Enterprises among 202 stocks to hit 52-week high on BSE; 9 scrips touch fresh lows

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Indian equity markets were trading on a positive note on Thursday, weekly F&O expiry day, tracking strong global cues. Benchmark index NSE Nifty 50 rose 100 points to trade above 17,700 levels and the S&P BSE Sensex climbed over 450 points to trade at 59,513 levels. Broader markets too were in the green as Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 surged up to 1%. Sectorally, Nifty Bank and Nifty Auto indices gained, while Nifty Metal and Realty indices were bogged down in trade. Tech Mahindra, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, ICICI Bank, Infosys were the top contributors to the benchmark indices.

Also Read: Gold Price Today, 8 Sep 2022: MCX gold may trade at Rs 50100-50750; all eyes on ECB monetary policy

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail, Adani Enterprises, Ambuja Cements, Astral, Automotive Axles, Bank of Baroda, Coal India, Data Patterns, Grindwell Norton, Hardwyn India, ICICI Bank, ITC, KSB, Mahindra & Mahindra, Vedant Fashions, Naysaa Securities, Patanjali Foods, Rolex Rings, SBI Life Insurance Company, Schaeffler India, Shoppers stopSumitomo Chemical India, Tube Investments of India, Timken India, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, Vadilal Enterprises, Varun Beverages, Yes Bank were among the stocks that hit 52-week high on BSE. On the flipside, Dhampur Bio Organics, Kaveri Seed Company, Sanofi India, Naturo Indiabull, Vibrant Global Capital were among the scrips that hit new lows

Stocks that hit 52-week high, low on NSE

On the National Stock Exchange, a total of 103 securities hit 52-week high intraday, while 5 scrips were at fresh lows. Apollo Tyres, Asahi India Glass, Bank of Baroda, Brand Concepts, Cochin Shipyard, Foseco India, Goodluck India, GSS Infotech, Hariom Pipe Industries, Hilton Metal Forging, IDFC Bank, Indian Bank, ITC, Jupiter Wagons, Kritika Wires, M&M, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Motherson Sumi Wiring, Regency Ceramics, SBI Life, Silver Touch Technologies, Ujjivan Financial Services were among the stocks that hit 52-week high. Meanwhile, Fourth Dimension Solutions, Dhampur Bio Organics, Debock Industries, Sanofi India and TruCap Finance were the securities at new lows intraday.

Volume gainers of NSE, BSE

InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo), Accuracy Shipping, Shaily Engineering, Thyrocare Technologies, Selan Exploration, Vaswani Industries, BSL Ltd were the volume gainers on NSE. Meanwhile, Akzo Nobel India, InterGlobe Aviation, Venus Pipes & Tubes, Coffee Day Enterprises, Metropolis Healthcare, Schneider Electric Infrastructure, Patel Engineering, Container Corporation of India stocks saw spurt in volumes on BSE.

Also Read: FM Sitharaman’s fight against inflation: Centre, state govts collectively responsible to tame rising prices

Sensex, Nifty top gainers, losers

Mahindra and Mahindra, ICICI bank, Tech Mahindra, Axis Bank, Ultratech Cement, IndusInd Bank, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Bank, Asian Paints, ITC were the top Sensex gainers, while Tata Steel, Nestle India, Sun Pharma, Titan, NTPC, Powergrid, Larsen and Toubro and Reliance were the losers. In the Nifty pack, Shree Cement, BPCL, ICICI Bank, M&M and Tech Mahindra were the gainers, while Hindalco, Tata Steel, Coal India, SBI Life, Tata Motors were the laggards.

Buy these two stocks to pocket gains as Nifty looks to breach near-term resistance

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By Nagaraj Shetti

After showing a sign of strength with upside momentum on Tuesday, Nifty demonstrated another sharp upmove on Wednesday and closed the day higher by 211 points. After opening with upside gap of 57 points, Nifty shifted into a sustained upmove that continued for the entire session. Intraday consolidation or minor dips in between have been used as buy on dips opportunity for the day. The opening upside gap remains unfilled.

After the false downside breakout of the lower range of 14200 levels on 22nd April, Nifty displayed strength on the upside and has almost reached the upper trajectory of the range pattern at 14900 levels. Hence, a sustainable move above this hurdle could open the next upside target of around 15200-15300 levels in the near term.

Nifty has bounced back as per weekly timeframe chart and formed a long bull candle so far. After the formation of doji candles in the previous three weeks during decline, one may now expect a formation of long bull candle as per weekly timeframe chart, by week’s close.

The short term trend of Nifty continues to be positive. After the display of strength to move above the hurdle, one may expect present upside resistance (14900) to be broken decisively on the upside in the short term. Any intraday consolidation or minor weakness from near the hurdle could be a buy on dips opportunity. Immediate support is placed at 14750. 

Stock Picks: 

Buy JK Tyre & Industries Ltd- (CMP Rs 116.60) 

The broader downward trend in this Tyre stock (JKTYRE) of the last few months seems to have reversed on the upside as per the weekly timeframe chart. After shifting into a consolidation pattern recently, the stock price witnessed sustainable up-move in the last few sessions. The stock price is currently placed to show a decisive upside breakout of the downward sloping trend line resistance around Rs 118-119 levels. Hence, a sustainable move above Rs 119 levels could open a sharp trended up-move in the stock price in near term. Weekly 14 period RSI shows a positive indication.

Buying can be initiated in JKTYRE at CMP (116.60), add more on dips down to Rs 112, wait for the upside target of Rs 130 in the next 3-4 weeks. Place a stoploss of Rs 109.

Buy Heritage Foods Ltd – (CMP Rs 377.50) 

After showing a larger range bound action in the last few weeks, the stock price (Heritage Foods Ltd) has witnessed a sharp upside bounce from the last week. The stock price was moving in a larger triangle type pattern in the last many months and has witnessed an upside breakout of the triangle at Rs 355 levels recently. This is a positive indication and one may expect sharp up-move in the near term. Weekly 14 period RSI moved above 60 levels and volume has started to expand while the stock price shows upside breakout of the hurdle. 

Buying can be initiated in Tata at CMP (377.50), add more on dips down to Rs 360, wait for the upside target of Rs 420 in the next 3-4 weeks. Place a stoploss of Rs 348.

(Nagaraj Shetti is a Technical Research Analyst at HDFC securities. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

Share Market HIGHLIGHTS: Sensex ends 188 pts down, Nifty at 16818 on F&O expiry; ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank fall

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Share Market News Today | Sensex, Nifty, Share Prices HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic equity market benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 ended in the red for the 7th straight session on the day of the monthly F&O (derivatives) expiry. BSE Sensex fell 188 points or 0.3 per cent to end at 56,410, while NSE Nifty 50 slipped 40.50 points or 0.24 per cent to settle at 16818. Stocks of index heavyweights such as ITC, Dr Reddy’s, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Nestle India, M&M, IndusInd Bank, Bharti Airtel, NTPC, UltraTech Cement, among others capped the losses. On the flip side, stocks of Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, Titan Company, Kotak Mahindra Bank, TCS were among top index draggers. Bank Nifty ended 0.3 per cent down at 37,648.

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16:17 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 India a ‘bright spot’ in car sales, even as Moody’s cuts global outlook to ‘negative’; Europe weakest

The onset of the festive season, combined with a relatively stronger macroeconomic environment and easing semiconductor shortage may help the car market in India retain strength amid a global fall in vehicle sales, according to Moody’s. The ratings agency switched outlook for the global automotive industry from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’, but called India a ‘bright spot’. Global car sales are expected to fall due to various reasons, including shortage of parts, regulatory pressures, and consumer sentiment, Moody’s said. On the other hand, sales volumes in India jumped 12.5 per cent this year. The leap is expected to proliferate by another four per cent in 2023, according to Moody’s. Read More

15:37 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Sensex, Nifty end in red for 7th straight day on monthly F&O expiry day

BSE Sensex fell 188 points or 0.3 per cent to end at 56,410, while NSE Nifty 50 slipped 40.50 points or 0.24 per cent to settle at 16818.

15:11 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Festive season likely to boost real estate demand, momentum to continue

The festive season which has already begun is considered to be an auspicious time to invest in residential real estate. It is a much awaited time of the year when home buyers opt for high-ticket purchases, gives a significant thrust to the real estate sector and is marked by the launch of new projects, combined with a spectrum of benefits to attract home buyers. A big booster to housing demand has been the increased importance of owning a property backed by consumer confidence in the overall economic scenario. To cash in on the sentiment, property developers come up with discounts and schemes to attract buyers, offering freebies such as gold coins, cars, holiday trips, modular kitchens, etc.

14:54 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 RBI MPC may go with 35-50 bps repo rate hike in Sep monetary policy; may lower GDP growth forecast

The RBI is expected to raise the repo rates by 35-50 bps in its September Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. It may be noted that the Reserve Bank of India has already increased the repo rate to 5.4 per cent, hiking it by 140 basis points since May this year. A 50 bps increase in key policy rates again this time will take it to a three-year high of 5.9 per cent. All eyes will be on RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday, 30 Sep 2022, who, in the previous policy review, had said that ’50 is the new normal for central banks’. Read full story

13:55 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 RBI should hike policy rates by 35bp

The RBI should hike policy rates by 35bp this week, followed by another 25bp in Dec’22. However, With a deteriorating global economic environment and currency market movements, the RBI may choose to announce another 50bp hike this week. With the liquidity balance already moving towards neutrality and a substantial fall in RBI’s Balance Sheet, it is time to signal the end of rate hikes in India. Motilal Oswal Financial Services

13:34 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Godrej Appliances betting on premium products to drive more than 50% growth this festive season

Godrej Appliances has launched more than 100 new products for the festive season and is betting big on the festive months to drive 50 per cent growth for the brand. In line with the previous conversations of the brand with FinancialExpress.com on the growing popularity of premium products, Godrej Appliances has focused on a premium range for its product launches. Read full story

12:39 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Sell these two stocks to pocket near-term gains; Nifty resistance placed at 17038-17176

On the daily chart, we observed that NSE Nifty 50 has corrected for the last 6 sessions after breaking out of the downward sloping trend line that has held down the highs of 2021 and 2022. And on Wednesday, the Nifty closed below the 200 day EMA, which indicates a weak bias for the near term. Nifty could move down further towards the 20 week SMA at 16788. Any rallies on the upside could find resistances at 17038-17176. Read full story

11:50 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Gold Price Today, 29 Sep 2022: MCX gold may hover in Rs 49730-50470 range; all eyes on RBI MPC, US GDP

Gold Price Today, Gold Price Outlook, Gold Price Forecast: Gold rate and silver rate in India were trading sideways on Thursday, as US dollar inched higher on recession fears. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold October futures were trading Rs 30 up at Rs 49,780 per 10 gram. Silver December futures were ruling at Rs 56,169 per kg, down Rs 359 or 0.6 per cent on MCX. Globally, yellow metal prices retreated as the U.S. dollar firmed on concerns that rising interest rates would spark a global recession, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. Read full story

11:45 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Should investors rollover futures or let it expire today?

Investors must roll their futures on the long side. If they are short in the current month, it would be prudent to exit shorts and take whatever profits they are left with. Futures should be rolled over on the long side. Secondly, Nifty’s moving past 17000 would be crucial; it would also mean crossing above the 200-DMA again. If this happens, it may invite another dose of short covering in the markets. Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA and founder of Gemstone Equity Research

10:48 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 F&O expiry 29 Sep: Nifty may fall to 16500 below 17000; Track India Cement, Sun Pharma, Lupin stocks for gains

NSE Nifty 50 index formed a small bodied bearish candle on daily scale with a long upper shadow indicating pressure at higher zones. It has been making lower highs – lower lows from the last six trading sessions. India VIX was up by 2.43% from 21.56 to 22.09 levels on Wednesday. Volatility is hovering at higher zones which is giving discomfort to the bulls. On Options front, Maximum Call OI is at 17000 then 17200 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 16500 then 16800 strike. Call writing is seen 17000 then 16900 strike while minor Put writing is seen at 16700 then 16600 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 16500 to 17100 zones. Read full story

09:55 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Nifty support at 16600, use call ladder for 6 Oct F&O expiry; Bank Nifty may trade flat-to-cautious today

Nifty Put options OI distribution shows that 16,800 has highest OI concentration followed by 16,700 & 16,500 which may act as support for current expiry and on the Call front 17,100 followed by 16,900 & 17,200 witnessed significant OI concentration and may act as resistance for current expiry. Options data suggest an immediate trading range between 17,100 and 16,700 levels & 17,000 acting as pivotal levels. In Nifty Call writing was witnessed at 17,000, 17,100 & 17,200; while on Put side it was seen at 16,800,16,700 &16,600. Read full story

09:26 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Nifty gainers, losers

Hindalco Industries, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank and M&M were among major gainers on the Nifty, while Asian Paints, Cipla, TCS and Hero MotoCorp were the laggards.

09:26 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Markets open higher amid positive cues

Share Market News Today | Sensex, Nifty, Share Prices LIVE: Indian benchmark indices opened on positive note amid positive global cues. The Sensex was up 498.42 points or 0.88 per cent at 57096.70, and the Nifty was up 145.40 points or 0.86 per cent at 17004. Broader markets outperformed benchmark indices as Nifty MidCap 100 and Nifty SmallCap 100 indices surged over 1 per cent each. Sectorally, Nifty Media, Nifty Metal, Nifty PSU Bank advanced in the range of 1 per cent to 2 per cent.

09:18 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 As Sensex, Nifty plunge over 4% so far in 2022 on global uncertainty, is it time to buy yet or wait and watch?

BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 ended lower for the sixth straight session on Wednesday ahead of weekly and monthly F&O expiry. BSE Sensex plunged 509 points or nearly 1 per cent to 56,598, while NSE Nifty 50 crashed 0.9 per cent or 149 points to settle at 16589. Analysts say that owing to the global uncertainty, the stock market is likely to remain under pressure in the near-term. Monthly F&O expiry on Thursday and the upcoming RBI MPC meeting outcome will be keenly watched by the investors. So far in the year, both BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 have plunged more than 4 per cent, turning negative for 2022. Read full story

09:14 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Rupee opens higher

Indian rupee opened 35 paise higher at 81.59 per dollar on Thursday against the previous close of 81.94.

09:14 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Nifty can see upward momentum only if it crosses 17327 hurdle

“Markets are likely to see a firm opening on Thursday, tracking a recovery in other Asian indices after US gauges staged a smart recovery in the overnight trades. The key positive catalyst is yields in the US and Europe retreated after the Bank of England’s announcement that it will carry out temporary purchases of long-dated UK government bonds in order to restore orderly market conditions offered investors some support. However, caution will still prevail and intra-day choppy trend is not ruled out due to global uncertainty over persisting increase in interest rates, rising inflation and geo-politicial tensions. On the technical front, Nifty can see upward momentum only if it crosses the hurdle of 17327 mark.”

~Prashanth Tapse – Research Analyst, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities

09:13 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Bulls pace D-St in pre-open session

Benchmark indices are trading firm in the pre-opening session on the back of positive global cues. The Sensex was up over 300 pts at 56,997, and the Nifty was up 130 pts at 16995.

09:12 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Sterling slips as dollar regains footing

Sterling fell on Thursday and the US dollar was clawing back a recent dip as relief at the Bank of England’s intervention in bond markets faded in the face of nagging doubts about Britain’s economic management and the outlook for global growth.The British currency jumped the most since mid-June on Wednesday after the BoE announced an emergency bond-buying plan to shore up a gilt market that had been in freefall with the pound. But sterling was 0.8% lower at $1.0798 by mid-session in Asia and the euro weakened 0.6% to $0.9679, as the U.S. dollar regained its footing.

08:51 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Rupee is expected to remain in a range of 81.40 to 82.00

Rupee to open at 81.60 as risk appetite improves after Dow Jones rose overnight and BOE fueled rally of a pound who said they would buy £ 65 billion of government bonds calming the markets. Oil rallied on improved sentiments to $ 88 per barrel. The MPC meeting started yesterday and will continue today and tomorrow when at 10 am we will know about the change in interest rates. Asian currencies including CNH were all up against the dollar. The dollar index fell to 113.18 on improved risk appetite. Asian markets were all trading in the green while SGX nifty was up by about 200 points. The rupee is expected to remain in a range of 81.40 to 82.00 for the day. Exporters may adhere to a stop loss of 81.50 while importers may buy the dip that they are getting today.

~ Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors

08:50 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Shree Cement in focus on exclusion from Nifty 50

Adani Enterprises Ltd will replace Shree Cement Ltd from National Stock Exchange’s benchmark index Nifty 50 from September 30. Adani Enterprises is the flagship company of Adani Group and Shree Cement is the leading cement-making firm, owning brands such as Roofon, Bangur Power, Shree Jung Rodhak, Bangur Cement and Rockstrong. The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee – Equity (IMSC) of NSE Indices Limited has decided to make the changes as a part of its periodic review.

08:49 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 RBI unlikely to make unconventional moves to support rupee

Despite the rupee nearing 82 to the dollar, currency market experts said the Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to unveil any significant unconventional tools in its monetary policy committee meeting. The rupee touched a record low of 81.94 against the dollar as the US currency continued to rise and comments by members of the US Federal Reserve boosted expectations of further aggressive rate hikes.

08:06 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 India forex reserves set to shrink further, stir memories of 2008 crisis – Reuters Poll

India’s depleted foreign exchange reserves are likely to drop further, falling to their lowest level in over two years by end-2022, as the Reserve Bank of India continues to defend the rupee from the mighty dollar’s rise, a Reuters poll found. In a battle that has so far failed to staunch the rupee’s fall to a record low against the greenback, the RBI has drawn down its foreign exchange reserves by nearly $100 billion to $545 billion from a peak of $642 billion a year ago, and more is coming. Those reserves are forecast to fall another $23 billion to $523 billion by the end of this year, according to the median forecast from a Sept. 26-27 Reuters poll of 16 economists. If realised, that would be the lowest level in over two years.

08:05 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Bank of England to start unlimited bond purchases to stabilise market

The Bank of England said on Wednesday that it would buy as many long-dated government bonds as needed between now and Oct. 14 to stabilise financial markets, and added that it would postpone next week’s start of its gilt sale programme. “Were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability,” the BoE said. “This would lead to an unwarranted tightening of financing conditions and a reduction of the flow of credit to the real economy.”

It said the purchases were designed to restore orderly market conditions. “The purchases will be carried out on whatever scale is necessary to effect this outcome.”

08:01 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 FII and DII data

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net offloaded shares worth Rs 2,772.49 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 2,544.17 crore on September 28, according to the data available on the NSE.

07:59 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Stocks in focus today

Nykaa: FSN E-Commerce Ventures, Nykaa’s parent company informed the stock exchanges in a regulatory filing that a meeting of its board of directors is scheduled for 3 October to consider and approve the issuance of bonus shares to shareholders.

Hindustan Copper: The company on Wednesday announced the highest-ever dividend per share at 30.01% of the net profit in FY22 with a net profit of Rs 373.78 crore, a 338% jump over the previous year’s net profit of Rs 109.98 crore.

Blue Dart Express: The company has announced an average shipment price increase of 9.6% for 2023 as compared to 2022.

Read full story

07:55 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Nifty support seen at 16277-16438

“Nifty joined the global stock market rout on worries that the Federal Reserve’s war against decades-high inflation could push the U.S. economy into a downturn. Sentiment at Dalal Street remained clouded by lingering concerns about corporate India’s earnings which could come under heavy pressure from inflation, an economic downturn, and soaring interest rates. The street will be anxiously awaiting the RBI September MPC Meet outcome to trickle in on Friday, Technically, the Nifty’s support is seen at 16277-16438 zone. As long as it holds the support  level there is a bright chance that Nifty could bounce to 17321 and then at 17727 mark.”

~ Prashanth Tapse – Research Analyst, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities

07:52 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Buy in index heavyweight stocks if Nifty falls to 16700 levels

“Markets remained choppy with a sharply downward bias, as investors exited banking and metal stocks ahead of the monthly F&O expiry with the likely rate hike by the RBI & other central banks indicating that bearish sentiment could continue going ahead. Technically, we are of the view that 17000 would act as an immediate resistance level. Below which, the correction wave is likely to continue till 16700-16650. On the flip side, a short recovery rally is possible only after the dismissal of 17000. Above the same the index could move up to 17100-17200. The Nifty is having major support between 16700-16650 (which is important retracement support level).  Buying is advisable in index heavyweight stocks if Nifty falls to 16700 levels,”

~Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities Ltd

07:51 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Bulls to stage a comeback or bears to drag Nifty below 16700? 5 things to know before market opening bell

Indian benchmark indices are expected to open in the green as trends in SGX Nifty hinted at a positive opening for Indian equities. Nifty futures were up 189 pts or 1% up on the Singapore Exchange. In the previous session, the BSE Sensex plunged 509 points to 56,598, while the NSE Nifty 50 fell 149 points to 16,859. “In the near term, market is expected to remain under pressure due to global uncertainty. However mixed trends across sectors would continue to offer stock-specific opportunities, especially in auto, consumption with the ongoing festive season,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Read full story

07:48 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Asian markets trade higher

Shares in the Asia-Pacific rose at the open on Thursday following a rebound on Wall Street overnight. The rally in the US came after the Bank of England said it would intervene in the bond market to stabilise conditions. The Nikkei 225 in Japan advanced 1% and the Topix index gained 0.31%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 jumped 1.38%. In South Korea, the Kospi added 1.5%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.72%.

07:47 (IST) 29 Sep 2022 Wall Street stocks rebound

Global equities staged a partial comeback on Wednesday — with Wall Street stocks surging around 2% — as the Bank of England said it would step in to the bond market in an attempt to dampen investors’ fears of contagion across the financial system.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 548.75 points, or 1.88%, to 29,683.74. The S&P 500 gained 1.97% to 3,719.04. The Nasdaq Composite was 2.05% higher at 11,051.64 at the close.

Global factors, macroeconomic data to drive markets in holiday-shortened week ahead: Analysts

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Equity market will be guided by global trends, macroeconomic data announcement and foreign fund movement in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Movement of the rupee and Brent crude oil will also remain in focus this week, they added.

“The bulls need some support from global markets to continue Friday’s momentum. The geopolitical situation, macro numbers from the USA, direction of the US dollar index, and bond yields will be key factors to watch out for at the global level,” Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.

Also Read: FPIs turn net sellers again; withdraw Rs 7,600 cr from equities in September

PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled to be announced on Monday, while the services sector data will be out on Thursday.

“This week is a holiday-shortened one and marks the beginning of the new month also so important data like auto sales, S&P manufacturing PMI and S&P services PMI will be in focus. Besides, performance of the global markets, FIIs trend, and movement in currency and crude will also remain on participants’ radar,” said Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Last week, the Sensex shed 672 points or 1.15 per cent, while the Nifty lost 233 points or 1.34 per cent. Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President – Technical Research, Kotak Securities Ltd, said, global macro factors will continue to dictate the domestic market sentiment going ahead as any fresh spell of negative news could once again trigger the downward spiral.

Spot USDINR likely to trade in 79-81 range on strength in dollar; medium-term trend looks bullish above 78.70

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By Dilip Parmar

The dollar has been on a tear this year, with the US dollar index reaching the highest level in two decades while the rupee has been hovering near the eighties. There is a long list of drivers behind the recent surge in the greenback some of them are hawkish central banks especially the Federal Reserve, recession fears, foreign fund outflows, higher commodity prices and rising risk aversions. In the near term, the rupee could consolidate in the range of 79 to 80.50 while the dollar strength will continue against developed market currencies. We believe, the rupee could decouple the regional currencies amid higher growth prospectus, improving high-frequency data, better monsoon and foreign institutions turning net buyers in the last couple of months. 

Inflation in India is hovering near 7%, after touching 7.80% in April while in the US it is hovering near multi decade highs which are pressuring the Central Bank to continue to tighten policy. The market is pricing in 70-80 basis points of an additional hike from RBI this year and peaking out in Q1 2023.

The rupee has been one of the strongest currencies since July after foreign institutions turned net buyers of domestic equities and debts. We believe the interest differential and positive carry will continue to attract foreign fund inflows to India. The inflation might come under the tolerance range of RBI in the coming month following above-average monsoon rainfall and lower global commodity prices. The growth momentum can see an upswing in the coming months as festive demands will start from next week. 

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In the quarter to date, foreign institutions have poured $8.18 billion in equities and $1.21 billion in debts. The market participants are also waiting for MSCI’s decision on India’s bond inclusion in the global bond index which is expected to bring in estimated inflows of $30-40 billion. In the near term, spot USDINR is expected to trade in the range of 79 to 81 as a stronger dollar will push it higher while foreign fund inflows will limit the upside. The medium-term trend remains bullish in spot USDINR as long as it trades above 78.70. 

(Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own.)

QYOU Media India’s Q Play+ partners with Coolita to expand its digital footprint

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QYOU Media India has forged a global distribution partnership with Coolita to expand its digital footprint and captivate viewers with free streaming of FAST channels of Q Play+. According to the company, Coolita users in India and across the globe will have the privilege to stream QYOU Media India’s five FAST channels – The Q, The Q Kahaniyan, Q GameX, Sadhguru TV and BH Live for free as a part of this alliance.

Additionally, the partnership ensures viewers get access to high-quality, localised content, adding a new dimension to their television viewing experience.

Moreover, the partnership aims to enable the network to reach a broader global audience, sharing its unique content offerings with Coolita’s rapidly growing user base of smart TV.

“This collaboration grants Indian audiences free access to curated Indian programs, enhancing their viewing experience with a localised touch. Users of TV brands supported by Coolita, such as Panasonic, Croma, and Thomson, can now enjoy Q Play’s five 24-hour channels at no cost. This strategic alliance significantly amplifies the local coverage and accessibility of Q Play’s offerings,” Samuel Lin, head of partnerships, Coolita, added.

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Nifty reclaims 18,000-mark as investors add risk

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The Nifty reclaimed the 18,000 peak on Tuesday, closing above the mark for the first time since April, as stocks rallied for the fourth straight session.

Shrugging off concerns on inflation accelerating higher-than-expected to 7% in August and industrial output in July rising a slower-than-expected 2.4%, investors added risk sending the benchmark gauge up 133.70 points or 0.75% to settle at 18,070.05 points.

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In Asia, the Shanghai Composite Index gained nearly 0.1%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 0.3% and South Korea’s key Kospi index jumped 2.7%. However, Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng index declined 0.2%.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have been bullish on Indian equities in the past four weeks and continued to be buyers. FPIs invested `2,049.65 crore into domestic equities on Monday, according to data available on BSE. They have shopped for equities worth $8 billion since July, aided by a correction in commodity prices and India’s relatively strong macro fundamentals.India’s relative outperformance vis a vis other emerging markets has gained traction in recent weeks and the outperformance is now highest since the 1999-2000 period, according to Elara Capital. The benchmark 50-share Nifty is trading at a valuation of 19x its 12-month forward P/E as on September 7.

“India’s sustained growth momentum and the relatively benign inflation in the context of continued global disarray on account of tensions in Ukraine and the Taiwan straits, has attracted FPIs back to Indian equities,” said UR Bhat, director, Alphaniti Fintech.India is seen as the favourite among emerging markets because of the relative resilience of the rupee and forex reserves, as also relatively low levels of external debt, current account and fiscal deficits.The country’s weighting in the widely tracked MSCI EM index has shot up to about 14.49% now from 8.1% at the end of October 2020. The number of constituents in the MSCI EM Standard Index is now at 108 stocks versus 87 as of October 2020.Among the Sensex shares, Bajaj Finserve, IndusInd Bank, Bharti Airtel, Titan and Bajaj Finance were the main gainers. HDFC Bank, HDFC, Power Grid, L&T, ITC, Reliance, SBI and Infosys also closed in the positive territory.

TCS was the biggest loser among the Sensex pack, declining 0.37%.

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In the broader market, BSE MidCap advanced 0.32% to 26,252.08 points while BSE SmallCap gained 0.24% to 29,893.97 points.

Among the sectoral indices, FMCG rose 0.77%, Finance went up 0.85%, both Industrials and Metals gained 0.74%, Capital Goods went up 0.69% and Consumer Durables increased 0.66%.

On the other hand, Energy, Oil & Gas and Realty indices closed with losses. Brent crude rose to $95.15 per barrel in London. Gains in global equities also supported the local markets.

Global Markets: Wall Street keeps stocks down, dollar up on inflation

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Wall Street and global stocks fell again on Friday, or barely recovered, with government bond yields pulling back from recent peaks and the dollar pushing ever higher, as higher-than-expected inflation continued to weigh on markets.

Fresh personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data, tracked by the US Federal Reserve as it considers more interest rate hikes, showed a rise of 0.3% last month after dipping 0.1% in July. Euro zone inflation also hit a record high of 10% in September, surpassing forecasts for a 9.7% rise, flash inflation data showed.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.65%, to 29,034.83, the S&P 500 lost 0.61%, to 3,618.17 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.53%, to 10,681.01.

The declines Friday cap a week of global market turmoil in which recession fears already sapped stocks and currency markets were rocked by dollar strength.

Asian shares fell earlier on Friday, on track for their largest monthly loss since the start of the pandemic in 2020.

European shares saw some recovery, although they remained on track for a third consecutive quarter of losses as markets worried about the impact on global growth of central banks hiking interest rates to counter inflation. Europe’s STOXX 600 was last up 0.56%.

The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, fell 0.1%.

David Madden, market analyst at Equiti Capital, said a pullback in government bond yields enabled stocks to edge up, but this was unlikely to be the start of a longer recovery.

“The big picture hasn’t changed: yields are an upward trend, inflation is still really high, interest rates are set to continue on the path of higher rates,” he said.

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European government bond yields fell, with Germany’s 10-year yield down 10 basis points at 2.101%, compared to Wednesday’s peak of 2.352%, which was an 11-year high.

US Treasury yields also pulled back on Friday. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 5.7 basis points to 3.690%; 30-year Treasury bonds fell 4.3 basis points to 3.650%.

Currency markets calmed, with the dollar index up 0.2% on the day, after hitting a 20-year high on Wednesday. The dollar index has risen more than 17% this year.

The British pound, which had been driven to all-time lows by a combination of dollar strength and the government’s plans for tax cuts funded by borrowing, fell 0.15% on the day. It is on track for its worst quarter versus the dollar since 2008 .

The Bank of England won’t raise interest rates before its next scheduled policy announcement on Nov. 3 despite a plummet in sterling but will make big moves in November and December, a Reuters poll found.

European Central Bank policymakers have also voiced more support for a large rate hike.

COMMODITIES Oil prices were on track for their first weekly gain in five on Friday, underpinned by the possibility that OPEC+ will agree to cut crude output when it meets on Oct. 5. But in morning trading US crude fell 1.17% to $80.28 per barrel and Brent was at $88.12, down 0.42% on the day.

Gold prices, which gained on Friday as the dollar weakened, were on course for their worst quarter since March last year as central banks worldwide stick with aggressive monetary policies.

Spot gold last rose 0.1% to $1,662.30 an ounce; US gold futures gained 0.54% to $1,667.40 an ounce.

Petrol, diesel sales jump in September as festival season approaches

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Petrol and diesel sales in India jumped in September as economic activity picked up with the nearing festival season and the ending of the monsoon raised the demand, preliminary industry data showed. Petrol sales soared 13.2 per cent to 2.65 million tonnes in September when compared to 2.34 million tonnes of consumption in the same month last year. Sales were 20.7 per cent higher than Covid-marred September 2020 and 23.3 per cent more than pre-pandemic September 2019.

Demand was, however, 1.9 per cent lower than the previous month of August 2022. Diesel, the most used fuel in the country, posted a handsome 22.6 per cent rise in sales in September to 5.99 million tonnes when compared to the same month last year. Consumption was up 23.7 per cent over September 2020 and nearly 15 per cent higher than pre-Covid 2019.

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Industry sources said the ending of monsoon rains in most parts of the country and a pick up in agriculture season led to a rise in diesel demand. Rains usually restrict mobility and demand from the farm sector, which uses diesel in irrigation pumps and trucking. Also, the approaching festival season led to a pick-up in economic activity and a rise in demand.

Auto fuel sales had dipped in July and August owing to the monsoon and reduced demand. This dip had come after a surge in June that was supported by increased summer travel to colder areas of the country to escape from the heat and vacations during annual breaks at educational institutions. As the aviation sector opened up, India’s overall passenger traffic at airports inched closer to pre-Covid-19 levels.

Accordingly, jet fuel (ATF) demand jumped 41.7 per cent to 5,44,700 tonnes during September when compared to the same month last year. It was 81.3 per cent higher than September 2020 but nearly 12 per cent lower than pre-Covid September 2019.

The sources said while domestic air travel is back to pre-Covid levels, international traffic is lagging because of continued restrictions in some countries. With strong economic growth of 7 per cent, India’s oil demand has been rising steadily since the country eased pandemic lockdowns.

Cooking gas LPG sales were up 5.4 per cent year-on-year at 2.48 million tonnes in September. LPG consumption was 9.3 per cent higher than in September 2020 and 14.9 per cent more than in September 2019.

Month-on-month, the demand was up 4.26 per cent when compared to 2.38 million tonnes of LPG consumption during August, the data showed.