Gold prices to trade sideways this week, support at Rs 48500; all eyes on US Fed meet, 75bps rate hike likely

Posted on by

By Tapan Patel

Commodity prices traded lower with most of the commodities in the non-agro segment witnessed decline during last week except silver which rallied on higher demand. Crude oil prices fell by nearly 2% on demand growth concerns over slowdown fears. Base metals ended in red on China demand worries as COVID worries continued to haunt the investment sentiments.

Also read: Indian economy to grow at 6.8% this fiscal, CAD may widen to 5.5% of GDP in Q2 FY23

Silver prices traded higher with spot silver prices at COMEX surged by 3.88% to $19.59 per ounce for the week. MCX Silver December futures rose by 3.03% to Rs. 56720 per KG for the week. Silver prices extended rally over higher demand prospects and lower supply worries despite weakness in base metals and gold. The CFTC data showed that Money managers have decreased their bearish silver bets by 17173 lots in the last week.

Bullion prices traded under pressure as prices struggled to hold strength ahead of the US FED rate decision and stronger dollar. Gold prices fell below the crucial support range $1680 per ounce while silver prices pared gains following weak cues after disappointing US CPI data. Last week’s hot inflation data, combined with a strong labor market and retail sales numbers, prompted some to forecast a full percentage point hike. The dollar index traded higher as two days ago the US FOMC meet from Tuesday to set interest rates expectations for a super- sized rate increase of 75 basis points. The Fed is committed to tackle inflation reaching 40-year highs on rising energy and food costs. The dollar index ended 0.70% up at 109.76 for the week. 

Also Read:Nifty likely to head towards 18300 in October, Bank Nifty looks to hit 41800; buy SBI, Bharti Airtel for gains

We expect gold prices to trade sideways to down in this week with COMEX spot gold resistance at $1700 per ounce and support at $1640 per ounce. At MCX, Gold October prices have near term resistance at Rs. 49800 per 10 grams and support at Rs. 48500 per 10 gram. COMEX Spot silver has near term resistance at $20.10 per ounce with support at $18.90 per ounce. MCX Silver December has important resistance at Rs. 58500 per KG and support at Rs. 54000 per KG.

(Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own.)